Key Takeaways
- The latest Verian poll shows National at 36%, Labour at 35%, Act at 10%, and New Zealand First at 9%.
- The Green Party and Te Pāti Māori have both experienced a decline in support, with the Greens dropping 4% to 7% and Te Pāti Māori dropping 2% to 1%.
- If an election were held today, National, Act, and New Zealand First would have 67 seats, enough to form a government.
- The poll is good news for the coalition government, but public approval ratings for Luxon and Hipkins have dropped.
- The latest poll results follow a turbulent time for Te Pāti Māori, which has been dealing with the expulsion of two of its MPs.
Introduction to the Poll Results
The latest Verian poll, conducted between November 29 and December 3, has provided some interesting insights into the current state of New Zealand’s political landscape. The poll, which surveyed 1007 eligible voters, shows National at 36%, up 2% from the previous poll, while Labour is at 35%, up 3% from the previous poll. This is Labour’s best result since April 2023. The Act Party has also seen an increase in support, climbing 2% to 10%, while New Zealand First remains steady at 9%. On the other hand, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori have both taken a hit, with the Greens dropping 4% to 7% and Te Pāti Māori dropping 2% to its lowest result in five years, at 1%.
Analysis of the Poll Results
The poll results are good news for the coalition government, as they suggest that if an election were held today, National, Act, and New Zealand First would have 67 seats, enough to form a government. This is a significant shift from the previous poll, which had the governing parties with 63 seats and the left-wing bloc with 60 seats. The latest poll results also follow a turbulent time for Te Pāti Māori, which has been dealing with the expulsion of two of its MPs, including Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, who is set to be reinstated after taking the issue to court. The poll results are also significant for the Green Party, which has seen a significant decline in support, dropping 4% to 7%.
Comparison with Previous Polls
The latest poll results are not an isolated incident, but rather part of a larger trend. The previous 1News-Verian poll, conducted in early October, had National at 34% and Labour at 32%. The Green Party had reached 11% in that poll, while NZ First and Act remained on 9% and 8% respectively. Te Pāti Māori was at 3% in the previous poll. The Talbot Mills/Anacta poll, conducted between November 1 and 10, had Labour jumping to 38% in the days after it released its capital gains tax policy. National had also lifted from 29% to 33% in that poll. These poll results suggest that the political landscape in New Zealand is constantly shifting, and that parties are experiencing ups and downs in their support.
Leaders’ Approval Ratings
The poll results also provide some insights into the approval ratings of the two major party leaders, Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins. According to the poll, Luxon has an approval rating of 38%, with 52% disapproving of his performance and 10% not knowing or preferring not to say. This gives Luxon a score of -14, his lowest approval rating as the country’s leader. Hipkins has a slightly better approval rating, with 42% approving of his performance, 41% disapproving, and 17% not knowing or preferring not to say. This gives Hipkins an overall score of +1, his lowest approval score since the 2023 election. Both leaders have downplayed the significance of the poll results, with Luxon saying he is focused on delivering for New Zealanders, and Hipkins saying he doesn’t "read much into" the ratings.
Conclusion and Future Implications
In conclusion, the latest Verian poll results provide some interesting insights into the current state of New Zealand’s political landscape. The poll results are good news for the coalition government, but also suggest that the political landscape is constantly shifting. The decline in support for the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori is significant, and the poll results also provide some insights into the approval ratings of the two major party leaders. As the country moves forward, it will be interesting to see how these poll results play out in future elections and how the parties respond to the challenges and opportunities presented by the poll results. The future of New Zealand politics is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the poll results will have significant implications for the country’s political landscape.