Key Takeaways
- A prolonged heavy‑rain event is affecting Northland, eastern Auckland and surrounding islands, with rainfall totals expected between 80‑150 mm and isolated downpours reaching 40 mm h⁻¹.
- MetService has issued orange heavy‑rain warnings for eastern Northland (south of Kawakawa), eastern Auckland north of Whangaparāoa, and Great Barrier Island, while a yellow watch remains for areas north of Papakura and the Coromandel.
- Despite the rain, a ridge of high pressure is set to bring largely settled weather for the Anzac Day long weekend, though mornings will be cold with possible frost inland.
- Temperatures will vary widely: Auckland ~16 °C, Wellington ~15 °C, while Canterbury and Otago (especially Dunedin) could reach ~22 °C, about 5 °C above seasonal averages.
- Residents are advised to clear drains and gutters, monitor river levels, and stay alert for isolated showers later today in the eastern North Island and later in the week over Southland and the West Coast.
Current Heavy‑Rain Situation
MetService has extended a heavy‑rain watch over most of the city this morning as continuous rain hammers the upper North Island. Northland is enduring a 24‑hour deluge forecast to dump up to 150 mm of rain, while northern Auckland could see up to 120 mm in the 16‑hour period leading to 3 p.m. The watch, originally issued from 7 a.m. to 1 p.m., has been widened to cover Auckland north of Papakura amid ongoing downpours that began overnight.
Specific Warnings and Expected Rainfall
An orange heavy‑rain warning is now in force for eastern Northland south of Kawakawa until midnight, with intense downpours of up to 40 mm per hour possible, accompanied by thunderstorms, flooding risks, and rapidly rising rivers. Eastern Auckland, north of Whangaparāoa, and Great Barrier Island are under a similar 16‑hour orange warning, ending mid‑afternoon, with anticipated rainfall of 80‑120 mm and the same potential for 40 mm h⁻¹ bursts. Meanwhile, areas north of Papakura remain under a yellow heavy‑rain watch until 1 p.m., and a separate watch covers the Coromandel (north of Whitianga) until 10 a.m. and Northland (excluding south of Kaitāia) until midnight.
MetService Advisory and Public Safety
Although MetService meteorologist Samkelo Magwala noted only a “slim chance” that the orange warnings would be upgraded to red, he urged residents to clear drains and gutters to mitigate flash‑flood risk. The agency emphasized that even with the lowered probability of escalation, localized flooding, surface water runoff, and rapid river rises remain plausible, especially in low‑lying catchments and urban areas with inadequate drainage.
Shift to Settled Weather for Anzac Day
Looking ahead, Magwala explained that New Zealand will come “under the influence of a ridge of high pressure” in the coming days, ushering in a more settled stretch of weather for the Anzac Day long weekend. Most locales should enjoy sunny spells, although mornings will feel chilly with frost possible in inland valleys and higher elevations. The ridge will suppress the majority of rain‑bearing systems, granting a reprieve after a week of destructive rain and strong winds in central regions.
Regional Temperature Outlook
Auckland is forecast to reach a high of about 16 °C today, with southerly winds keeping the morning feel cool. Wellington and the Wairarapa, after being placed under local states of emergency earlier in the week, are expected to see largely fine conditions today, with only passing cloud and a high near 15 °C. In the South Island, ridge conditions will dominate, delivering settled weather for most areas, while a cold front brushes the far south, keeping temperatures slightly lower there.
Dawn Service Conditions and Cold Spots
MetService meteorologist John Law highlighted that Anzac Day dawn services are likely to be mostly dry, though a cold start is anticipated, especially inland. He singled out Waiōuru as one of the coldest spots, forecasting temperatures around 1 °C at daybreak. Meanwhile, Canterbury and Otago are predicted to be the warmest parts of the country this weekend, with Dunedin expected to climb to about 22 °C tomorrow—roughly 5 °C above the seasonal average for late April.
Early‑Week Outlook and Isolated Showers
Law added that Monday may see a few showers moving into Southland and parts of the West Coast, but for many regions—particularly those recently impacted by severe weather—the day will represent a welcome break. Isolated showers could also affect parts of the eastern North Island later today, north of Hawke’s Bay, though these are expected to be weak and scattered. Overall, the transition from intense rain to high‑pressure dominance should provide a quieter, albeit chilly, end to the long‑weekend period.