Key Takeaways
- Arsenal reclaimed the Premier League title lead after a 3‑0 win over Fulham and Manchester City’s 3‑3 draw at Everton, now sitting five points clear with three games left.
- The Gunners showed their most fluent attacking performance of the season, registering their highest expected‑goals (xG) total and scoring three first‑half goals for the first time since November 2024.
- Young midfielder Myles Lewis‑Skelly stood out, completing more passes than any outfield player besides William Saliba and driving Arsenal’s build‑up play.
- City’s form has dipped; a late equaliser by Jeremy Doku kept their hopes alive, but defensive lapses allowed Everton to snatch a point and end a six‑game winning streak.
- On paper, Arsenal’s remaining fixtures are the easiest in the league (all against bottom‑six sides), though West Ham United away presents a motivated, survival‑fighting challenge.
- City face a tougher run‑in: a midweek game in hand at Crystal Palace, an FA Cup final, a trip to Bournemouth, and a home match against Aston Villa, with several of those games carrying added emotional weight.
- The Opta supercomputer still favours Arsenal, giving them an 86 % chance of winning the title, reflecting their points advantage and softer run‑in.
Arsenal have wrestled back control of the Premier League title race after a convincing 3‑0 home victory over Fulham last Saturday. The win, combined with Manchester City’s 3‑3 stalemate at Everton on Monday night, left Mikel Arteta’s side five points clear with three games remaining. Although City can trim that gap to two points by winning their midweek game in hand, Arsenal currently sit in the driver’s seat for their first league crown in 22 years.
The Gunners’ performance against Fulham was arguably their most fluent attacking display of the season. They recorded the highest expected‑goals (xG) figure of their Premier League campaign and netted three first‑half goals in a league match for the first time since November 2024. Bukayo Saka looked revitalised on the flank, assisting Viktor Gyokeres for the opener before adding a second himself. Perhaps the most encouraging note came from 19‑year‑old midfielder Myles Lewis‑Skelly, who made his first league start of the season in midfield. He completed more passes than any outfield player besides William Saliba, was involved in the most possession sequences, and frequently dropped deep to collect the ball from Gabriel before progressing it to Rice, Eze and Saka. The pass network showed Lewis‑Skelly acting as a linchpin, knitting together Arsenal’s threatening right‑hand side and allowing the team to play with noticeable freedom.
City’s fortunes have been less rosy. At Everton, they dominated the first half with 76 % possession and 12 shots, heading into the break with a one‑goal lead courtesy of Jeremy Doku’s left‑footed finish. However, defensive lapses after the hour allowed Everton to claw back. A mis‑hit back‑pass from Marc Guehi gifted Thierno Barry an equaliser, and the Toffees grew stronger thereafter, generating 82 % of their expected goals after the hour mark. Jake O’Brien’s header put Everton ahead, and Merlin Rohl added a third before Doku’s dramatic 97th‑minute curled equaliser rescued a point for City. While the late goal kept their hopes alive, the result felt like two more dropped points in a title‑winning campaign.
When assessing the difficulty of the remaining fixtures, Arsenal appear to have the easier run‑in on paper. Their three remaining games are against sides currently occupying the bottom six of the Premier League, giving them the lowest average Opta Power Ranking of any club’s run‑in. However, motivation varies at this stage of the season. Fulham, whom Arsenal just beat, are often described as “on the beach” in May, having won only four of their past 18 games in the month. The next test, an away trip to West Ham United, is likely to be Arsenal’s toughest remaining challenge; the Hammers are battling to avoid relegation and have been fighting hard for points. Arsenal’s historical record at the London Stadium is strong (5‑2 and 6‑0 victories in their last two visits), but West Ham’s desperation for survival could make the match a stern examination. The final day fixture at Selhurst Park against Crystal Palace looks less daunting on paper, as Palace are expected to rotate heavily ahead of a Conference League final three days later.
City’s schedule, by contrast, is considerably more demanding. They have a midweek game in hand at Crystal Palace (originally postponed from the Carabao Cup final weekend), followed three days later by the FA Cup final against Manchester United. After Wembley, they travel to Bournemouth, a side pushing for European qualification, and then host Aston Villa. Villa may already have secured Champions League qualification by that point, potentially reducing the stakes, but the match comes just four days after the Europa League final, likely bringing emotional fatigue. Additionally, City face a weekend trip to Brentford, a club with European ambitions, before concluding the season at home against Villa.
The Opta supercomputer, which has been tracking the title race since mid‑October, continues to favour Arsenal. Its confidence dipped after Arsenal’s March defeat to City but has risen again in recent weeks, now standing at an 86 % probability that the Gunners will lift the trophy. This assessment reflects Arsenal’s five‑point lead, their superior recent form, and the perception that they possess the softer run‑in of the two title contenders. With just three weeks left until the season finale on May 24, Arsenal appear to be in the strongest position to end their two‑decade wait for a Premier League championship, though City’s resilience and a potential slip‑up in Arsenal’s final games mean the race is not yet over.