Key Takeaways
- The Knicks lead the Eastern Conference Finals 3‑0 and are one win away from their first NBA Finals appearance since 1997.
- New York’s offense has been historically efficient in the playoffs, posting a 59.3 % effective field‑goal percentage – the best ever for a playoff team.
- Cleveland’s struggles start early; they have trailed by double‑digits in the first quarter of five of their 17 playoff games and are routinely outscored in opening periods.
- Adjusting the Cavs’ starting lineup (e.g., swapping Dean Wade for Sam Merrill, Max Strus or Jaylon Tyson) could lift their offensive output, which has been stagnant with the current five.
- The Knicks’ success hinges on continued hot shooting from Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Landry Shamet, and on exploiting ball‑screen actions that free Brunson against Cleveland’s defense.
The series has shifted to Cleveland for Game 3, and the New York Knicks are riding a wave of momentum that puts them on the verge of a historic sweep. With a 3‑0 lead, they need just one more victory to reach the NBA Finals for the first time in 27 years. Throughout the 2026 playoffs New York has shown an ability to close out series decisively: they won Game 6 in Atlanta by 51 points in the first round and, against Philadelphia, led by as many as 44 points late in the first quarter of Game 4. Those performances suggest the Cavaliers should expect the Knicks’ best effort in Game 4 (Monday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN) and cannot rely on the notion that teams down 3‑0 rarely win.
Three key factors will determine whether New York can finish the job.
1. Can the Knicks’ offense stay hot?
Over 13 playoff games the Knicks have posted an effective field‑goal percentage (eFG%) of 59.3 %, calculated as (FGM + 0.5·3PM)/FGA. That figure is not only the highest ever recorded by a team in NBA playoff history, it also represents a significant jump from their regular‑season mark of 55.7 % (ninth best in the league) and exceeds their expected eFG% of 52.6 % by about 13 % given the quality of shots they have taken. The shooting burst is fueled by several contributors: OG Anunoby (27‑for‑53, 51 %) and Landry Shamet (17‑for‑31, 55 %) have each made more than half of their three‑point attempts, while Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges combine for a 50 % mark on pull‑up two‑pointers (51‑for‑102). Although such percentages are unlikely to be sustained over a larger sample, the playoffs offer a small‑sample window where hot streaks can decide series. The Knicks have also found success exploiting Cleveland’s defensive tendencies, particularly through ball‑screen actions that free Brunson. Over Games 2 and 3, the Knicks scored 25 points on 19 possessions (1.32 points per possession) when Brunson came off screens set by the player Donovan Mitchell was guarding.
2. The Cavs need a (rare) good start.
Cleveland’s vulnerability lies in its opening periods. In Game 3 the Knicks never trailed, a pattern that has been detrimental to the Cavs throughout the playoffs. They have trailed by double‑digits in the first quarter of five of their 17 playoff games, and overall they have been outscored by 7.1 points per 100 possessions in the opening frame. Cleveland’s first‑quarter offense has produced just 105.7 points per 100 possessions while committing more than 20 turnovers per 100 possessions, indicating a lack of early flow and ball security. Historically, teams that lead by double‑digits in the regular season have a strong chance of winning; New York posted a 46‑6 record in such situations and is 10‑1 in the playoffs when holding a double‑digit lead, their only loss coming in Game 2 of the first round. Therefore, a strong start by Cleveland is essential if they hope to extend the series.
3. Lineup change?
The Cavaliers’ current starting five has produced modest offensive returns in the series: 69 points on 66 possessions (105 per 100). Dean Wade, who has attempted only nine shots in 67 minutes, may be a bottleneck. Replacing him with a player who can stretch the floor or create offense—such as Sam Merrill, Max Strus, or Jaylon Tyson—could raise the team’s offensive ceiling. Merrill, despite limited minutes (32 total across regular season and playoffs), has shown promise: in those minutes the Cavs scored 80 points on 66 possessions (121 per 100). His shooting improved in Game 3 (2‑for‑4 from three) after a rough 0‑for‑7 night in Game 2. While Wade has been the primary defender on Brunson, Cleveland’s frequent switching reduces the impact of who initially guards the Knicks’ leading scorer; nevertheless, injecting more offensive firepower could alleviate the early‑game deficits that have plagued them.
In short, the Knicks are poised to close out the series with a combination of historically efficient shooting, smart exploitation of Cleveland’s defensive schemes, and the ability to build early leads. The Cavaliers must find a way to start games stronger, potentially through a lineup adjustment that boosts their first‑quarter offense, if they hope to force a Game 5 and keep their championship hopes alive. A single Knicks win in Game 4 would seal a 4‑0 sweep and send New York to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1997.