Key Takeaways
- The latest Taxpayers’ Union‑Curia poll projects Labour to win 41 seats, National 39, NZ First 15, the Greens 12, ACT eight and Te Pāti Māori five.
- In the preferred‑Prime‑Minister measure, Christopher Luxon is up one point to 21.5 %, while Chris Hipkins falls 2.7 points to 19 %; Winston Peters drops to 11.6 %, Chloe Swarbrick to 5.4 % and David Seymour to 3.9 %.
- This poll is the first major release since Luxon survived a caucus confidence vote in mid‑April, a vote triggered by persistent leadership speculation amid weak polling.
- Earlier surveys showed National’s support hovering between 28‑30 %; although the centre‑right bloc could still govern with NZ First’s rise, some polls (e.g., the 1News‑Verian) suggested the left could seize power.
- Internal party tensions surfaced when National’s senior whip Stuart Smith reportedly attempted to contact Luxon about wavering caucus backing; Smith later denied the approach.
- Following the confidence vote, Luxon declared the leadership speculation “now closed” and refused to engage with what he called a “media soap‑opera.”
- A diplomatic flap emerged when Winston Peters’ office released emails indicating Luxon wanted to shift the Government’s stance to show explicit public support for the US‑led war on Iran; Peters warned this would run contrary to New Zealand’s national interests, while Luxon’s office said the emails mischaracterised his position.
- Luxon met Peters to address the issue; Peters acknowledged he had made a mistake in releasing the correspondence.
- Luxon’s overseas agenda continued with a trip to Singapore, where he met Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and signed a bilateral agreement to secure essential supplies such as food and fuel during crises.
- The story was reported by Jamie Ensor, the NZ Herald’s Chief Political Reporter, a former TV journalist and digital producer who was a finalist for Political Journalist of the Year at the 2024 Voyager Media Awards.
Poll Projections and Seat Distribution
The Taxpayers’ Union‑Curia survey released today forecasts a closely contested parliament. Labour would secure the largest bloc with 41 seats, narrowly edging out National’s 39. NZ First would hold king‑maker status with 15 seats, while the Greens would contribute 12. ACT is projected to win eight seats and Te Pāti Māori five. This distribution suggests that any governing coalition would need either Labour’s support combined with smaller parties or a centre‑right arrangement anchored by National and bolstered by NZ First’s numbers. The slim margins underscore the volatility of voter sentiment and the potential for post‑election negotiations to shape the next government’s composition.
Preferred Prime Minister Ratings
In the same poll, respondents were asked to name their preferred prime minister. Christopher Luxon leads with 21.5 %, a modest one‑point increase from the previous survey. Labour’s Chris Hipkins trails at 19 %, reflecting a 2.7‑point decline. Winston Peters of NZ First slips to 11.6 % (‑0.5), Chloe Swarbrick of the Greens falls to 5.4 % (‑2), and ACT’s David Seymour drops to 3.9 % (‑0.7). The narrow gap between Luxon and Hipkins indicates a highly competitive race for the premiership, while the lower figures for minor‑party leaders highlight the electorate’s focus on the two major parties despite the presence of viable coalition partners.
Context: Luxon’s Leadership Confidence Vote
Today’s figures represent the first major polling data released after National’s caucus held a confidence vote in mid‑April. The vote came after weeks of speculation that Luxon’s leadership was under threat due to a string of disappointing polls. During a nearly three‑hour meeting in Parliament, Luxon formally moved a motion of confidence, which was ultimately passed, allowing him to retain the party leadership. The episode highlighted the internal pressures faced by the party as it grappled with declining public support and sought to reassure caucus members of its direction ahead of the upcoming election.
Earlier Polling Trends and Bloc Viability
Leading up to the confidence vote, National’s support had fluctuated between the high‑20s and low‑30s. A Taxpayers’ Union‑Curia poll in March placed the party at 28.4 %; the follow‑up April poll showed a slight rise to 29.8 %. Shortly before the caucus meeting, a 1News‑Verian survey recorded National at 30 %, down four points from its prior reading. Despite these numbers, analyses suggested that the centre‑right bloc could still achieve a governing majority if NZ First’s support continued to climb. Conversely, the Verian poll hinted at a scenario where the left‑leaning parties might amass enough seats to form a government, illustrating the fine balance that determines electoral outcomes in New Zealand’s MMP system.
Internal Caucus Dynamics and Whip Allegations
Amid the leadership turmoil, unnamed sources informed the Herald that National’s senior whip Stuart Smith had attempted, albeit unsuccessfully, to contact Luxon about concerns over wavering support within caucus. Smith later denied having made such an approach after the story was published. The episode revealed the undercurrents of anxiety among MPs, who were weighing Luxon’s viability against the backdrop of poor polling and public criticism. The alleged outreach, followed by a public denial, underscored the sensitivity of internal communications and the lengths to which party officials may go to manage perceptions of stability.
Luxon’s Response to Leadership Speculation
Following the successful confidence vote, Luxon addressed the media, declaring that speculation over his leadership was “now closed.” He asserted that he would not engage with what he described as a “media soap‑opera,” signalling a desire to move past the internal dissent and focus on policy and campaigning. By framing the leadership question as settled, Luxon aimed to reassure both party members and voters that National could present a united front, a critical factor in persuading undecided electors who might be wary of perceived instability.
The Iran‑War Email Controversy
Later in April, the Herald reported that Luxon had participated in Beehive‑crisis talks with Winston Peters after Peters’ office released emails indicating that Luxon had sought to shift the Government’s stance to show “explicit public support” for the United‑States‑led war on Iran, following US and Israeli air strikes. Peters’ spokesman warned that such a position would run counter to New Zealand’s national interests, which traditionally favour an independent, non‑aligned foreign policy. Luxon’s office countered that the emails mischaracterised the Prime Minister’s view and criticised Peters for making the correspondence public, framing the leak as an attempt to undermine Luxon’s diplomatic credibility.
Resolution with Winston Peters
In the aftermath of the email controversy, Luxon met with Peters to discuss the matter. According to a spokesman for Peters, the Prime Minister acknowledged that he had made a mistake in releasing the emails, thereby defusing the immediate diplomatic tension. The meeting served to clarify each party’s position and to prevent the dispute from escalating into a broader rift between National and NZ First, whose support remains pivotal for any potential centre‑right coalition. The episode highlighted the delicate balance of coalition politics, where personal communications can quickly become flashpoints affecting inter‑party relations.
International Diplomacy: Singapore Agreement
Despite the domestic controversies, Luxon’s agenda continued on the international front. He travelled to Singapore, where he met Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and formally signed a bilateral agreement designed to ensure the continued flow of essential supplies—such as food and fuel—between the two nations during times of crisis. The pact underscores New Zealand’s commitment to strengthening strategic partnerships in the Asia‑Pacific region and reflects Luxon’s focus on securing practical outcomes that bolster national resilience, even amid internal political turbulence.
About the Reporter: Jamie Ensor
The story was filed by Jamie Ensor, the NZ Herald’s Chief Political Reporter, who operates from the Press Gallery at Parliament. Ensor began his career as a television reporter and digital producer within the Newshub Press Gallery office before moving to print journalism. His work has been recognised with a finalist nod for Political Journalist of the Year at the 2024 Voyager Media Awards, attesting to his reputation for delivering insightful, well‑sourced political coverage in a fast‑moving news environment.