Key Takeaways
- Scottie Scheffler is the tournament favorite (+160) as the defending champion, while Jordan Spieth (+1600) and Si Woo Kim (+1500) round out the top three betting choices.
- SportsLine’s proven computer model, which has correctly predicted 17 major championships, projects Spieth to finish outside the top‑5 despite his local familiarity with TPC Craig Ranch.
- The model highlights Pierceson Coody (+4000) as a strong longshot, citing his elite driving distance and recent top‑10 finishes.
- Several other golfers priced at 70‑1 or longer are identified as potential surprise contenders for a deep run or outright victory.
- Bettors and DFS players should consult the model’s projected leaderboard before finalizing picks, as it has a track record of delivering profitable golf selections.
The 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson, set for May 21‑24 at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, marks the next stop on the PGA Tour schedule after the season’s first two majors. Play begins Thursday morning with the first tee times at 8 a.m. ET. While a handful of elite players have opted to skip the event, the field includes two Dallas‑area stars: defending champion Scottie Scheffler and three‑time major winner Jordan Spieth. Both are among the tournament’s top betting options, with Scheffler listed at +160 (risk $100 to win $160) and Spieth at +1600. Si Woo Kim also appears in the top trio at +1500, followed by Brooks Koepka at +2200; every other golfer is priced at +3500 or longer, leaving a deep pool of potential longshots.
SportsLine’s proprietary predictive model, crafted by DFS expert Mike McClure, has simulated the Byron Nelson field 10,000 times. The model’s pedigree includes correctly forecasting 17 major championships—including the 2026 Masters, last year’s PGA Championship, and the Open Championship—giving it credibility for weekly Tour events. According to its latest simulation, the model is fading Jordan Spieth, projecting him to finish outside the top‑5 despite his familiarity with TPC Craig Ranch. Spieth has shown improvement this year with top‑20 finishes in both majors, yet he remains winless since 2022 and without a top‑10 since the 2025 Memorial Tournament, which reduces the model’s confidence in backing him at his current odds.
Conversely, the model is high on Pierceson Coody, a 27‑year‑old Texan currently priced at +4000. Coody has enjoyed his best professional season to date, amassing seven top‑25 finishes, including a pair of top‑10s. His game ranks 26th in strokes gained off the tee and 14th in average driving distance, giving him the ability to “shrink” the relatively short Craig Ranch layout. The model views these strengths as enough to project Coody as a legitimate top‑5 contender and a worthwhile longshot pick for bettors seeking high upside.
Beyond Coody, the simulation points to several other golfers priced around 70‑1 or higher who could make a surprising run. The model singles out one particular longshot—identified only as a “70‑1” candidate—as poised for a stunning title challenge. While the exact name is locked behind the SportsLine paywall, the implication is that multiple under‑priced players possess the statistical profile to outperform their odds, especially on a course that rewards accurate driving and precise iron play.
For those constructing PGA DFS lineups, One‑and‑Done selections, or traditional bets, the model’s projected leaderboard offers a data‑driven starting point. It synthesizes each player’s recent form, course‑specific strengths, and historical performance to generate probabilities that have historically yielded profitable returns. As always, bettors should weigh the model’s insights against personal research, injury reports, and late‑breaking news, but the SportsLine simulation provides a solid analytical foundation for the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
In summary, the tournament features a clear favorite in Scottie Scheffler, a notable fade suggestion for Jordan Spieth, and enticing longshot value in players like Pierceson Coody and several 70‑1‑plus golfers. Leveraging the model’s 10,000‑run simulation and its strong track record in major championships can help identify which contenders are most likely to exceed expectations—and which may fall short—when the action gets underway at TPC Craig Ranch.