Key Takeaways
- Quantum computers will render today’s encryption obsolete by solving problems that would take classical machines thousands of years in a fraction of a second.
- The threat is not that quantum computers make hackers better; they destroy the cryptographic protections that safeguard data once an attacker is inside a system.
- Quantum communication (e.g., satellite‑based entangled links) and quantum computing are two distinct research tracks; only the latter poses an immediate risk to existing encryption.
- Post‑quantum algorithms exist but are currently too slow for widespread adoption; industry expects roughly a ten‑year lag before they become standard.
- Prof. Maj.-Gen. (res.) Isaac Ben‑Israel estimates that the main technical obstacle—quantum decoherence caused by interference between qubits—will be overcome in about ten years, after which only a handful of massive, cryogenically cooled quantum machines will exist worldwide.
- Ben‑Israel pioneered Israel’s first offensive cyber unit in 1992; the public revelation of Stuxnet forced the country to build a national cyber ecosystem spanning defense, academia, industry, and education.
- During recent confrontations with Iran, cyber and AI were used synergistically: cyber‑enabled intelligence (e.g., traffic‑camera hacking) facilitated kinetic strikes, while AI‑driven image recognition provided rapid missile‑launcher alerts that saved lives.
- Israel’s national AI initiative, launched with the same ambition as its cyber program, has been repeatedly stalled by budgetary delays, causing the country to lose its early lead while other nations accelerated their AI investments.
The Quantum Threat to Modern Encryption
Prof. Maj.-Gen. (res.) Isaac Ben‑Israel warned that every encryption method in use today is living on borrowed time. He explained that a mature quantum computer could break any password “in a fraction of a second,” undermining the security foundations of banks, governments, and militaries. The danger lies not in making attackers more skillful, but in destroying the cryptographic shields that protect data once an intruder has gained access.
How Quantum Computing Achieves Exponential Speed‑Up
Ordinary computers rely on transistors that encode information as either a 0 or a 1. Quantum computers exploit superposition, allowing a quantum bit (qubit) to occupy both states simultaneously. This property lets a calculation that would require a classical machine a year—or even a millennium—to be completed almost instantaneously. Ben‑Israel emphasized that the speed advantage is not a modest 100‑ or 1,000‑fold increase; it is on the order of 10²⁰ to 10³⁰ times faster—a figure so large it is difficult to intuitively grasp.
Quantum Communication vs. Quantum Computing
The field of quantum research split into two separate tracks. Quantum communication involves transmitting signals—such as from satellite to ground—using quantum encryption techniques that are theoretically immune to interception. Quantum computing, by contrast, focuses on harnessing qubits to perform calculations that break existing cryptography. While quantum communication promises future‑proof channels, it is quantum computing that threatens to dismantle today’s encryption schemes.
The Path to Post‑Quantum Security
To counter the impending quantum threat, researchers are developing post‑quantum algorithms—mathematical schemes that even a quantum computer cannot crack in a reasonable timeframe. Ben‑Israel noted that a few such algorithms already exist, but they remain slow and are not ready for broad deployment. Industry experts anticipate roughly a ten‑year lag before these new standards can replace current encryption across the global infrastructure.
Quantum Entanglement as a Future Communication Tool
A more speculative but potentially transformative avenue is quantum entanglement, which allows an action performed on one particle to instantaneously affect its partner, regardless of distance, without any signal traveling through space. This property means there is nothing to intercept and no password to steal. China has already demonstrated satellite‑based entangled messaging, and Tel Aviv University students launched a test satellite two years ago as a step toward similar capabilities. Ben‑Israel acknowledged that while the underlying physics is challenging to accept, the technology works experimentally.
Timeline for Practical Quantum Computers
Ben‑Israel estimates that the principal hurdle—quantum decoherence caused by interference among qubits—will be resolved in about ten years. Overcoming this obstacle will enable the construction of functional quantum computers, but they will be enormous, cryogenically cooled machines consuming vast amounts of electricity. Consequently, only a handful of such systems are likely to exist worldwide, and a desktop‑sized quantum computer remains a distant prospect, possibly more than fifty years away.
From a Secret Cyber Unit to National Cyber Strategy
Ben‑Israel’s influence extends beyond quantum threats. In 1992 he founded what would become the IDF’s offensive cyber unit, believed to be the first of its kind globally. For years cyber operations remained classified, confined to intelligence circles. The public disclosure of Stuxnet—a sophisticated U.S.–Israeli worm that sabotaged Iran’s nuclear centrifuges—changed that dynamic. Ben‑Israel argued that Israel needed to emerge from secrecy and build a comprehensive ecosystem linking the defense establishment, academia, industry, and education. His persuasion, aided by a cyber‑war novel given to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, led to the creation of the National Cyber Initiative.
Cyber and AI in Action Against Iran
During recent confrontations with Iran, cyber capabilities and artificial intelligence were employed in tandem. Intelligence gathered from compromised computers enabled precise targeting; for example, hackers infiltrated Tehran’s traffic‑camera systems to track senior leaders’ movements and time strikes. Simultaneously, AI models processed satellite imagery to identify ballistic‑missile launchers in seconds—a task that would require thousands of analysts years to complete manually. The resulting five‑second early warnings to Israeli civilians, Ben‑Israel stressed, have saved countless lives.
Israel’s AI Initiative: Promise and Delay
Ben‑Israel co‑headed a national AI initiative with the same mandate he received for cyber: to place Israel among the world’s top five AI powers. A 2019 report, produced by roughly 300 experts, outlined the needed investments and reforms. However, successive government collapses and interim administrations repeatedly delayed funding, forcing the team to wait months after each election cycle. While every other nation accelerated its AI programs, Israel lost its early lead. A new AI body now exists under a former military intelligence official, but Ben‑Israel cautions that it still lacks sufficient budget. He dismisses arguments that Israel should limit itself to niche AI projects due to size or resource constraints, insisting that ambition and a funded program are essential for maintaining competitiveness.
Outlook: Preparing for a Post‑Quantum World
The convergence of quantum computing advances, evolving cyber threats, and AI‑driven defense underscores the urgency for Israel—and the world—to act now. Investing in post‑quantum cryptography, supporting the slow but steady rollout of quantum‑resistant algorithms, and sustaining robust cyber‑AI ecosystems will be critical. As Ben‑Israel’s career illustrates, foresight, institutional integration, and timely funding are the ingredients that can turn a looming technological disruption into a manageable challenge rather than a catastrophic surprise.