Dragos: Re‑framing Operational Technology Risk Assessment

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Key Takeaways

  • OT ransomware incidents are likely under‑reported because engineering workstations and operator interfaces are logged as generic IT assets.
  • A complete, accurate asset inventory is the foundation of any OT security programme – you cannot protect what you do not know exists.
  • Detecting adversary behaviour requires network‑level monitoring for anomalous activity, not just signature‑based malware detection.
  • In 2025, the average dwell time for OT ransomware was five days when monitoring was present, but overall dwell time stretched to 42 days, highlighting the cost of blind spots.
  • Human error and supply‑chain weaknesses are frequently underestimated; attackers use sophisticated, language‑specific phishing and target contractors or managed‑service providers as stepping stones.
  • Initiatives like Dragos’ free OT‑CERT provide valuable threat intelligence and community support for organisations lacking dedicated OT security budgets.
  • Looking ahead to 2026, the biggest risks include internet‑exposed OT assets, a persistently active ransomware ecosystem targeting engineering firms and equipment vendors, and continued gaps in detection capabilities.

The Hidden Scale of OT Ransomware
Engineering workstations and operator interfaces that run standard software are routinely logged as ordinary IT assets. Consequently, many OT‑focused ransomware events never appear in OT‑specific statistics, leading to a significant undercount of the true threat landscape. Recognising that these systems are part of the operational technology environment is the first step toward accurate risk measurement and appropriate resource allocation.

Building a Reliable Asset Inventory
An accurate asset inventory is indispensable: you cannot defend what you cannot see. Organisations must catalogue every device, software component, and communication pathway within their OT environment, including legacy equipment, temporary laptops used by engineers, and any third‑party tools that connect to the network. This inventory should be continuously updated to reflect changes such as device decommissioning, firmware upgrades, or the addition of new IoT sensors.

Moving Beyond Signature‑Based Detection
Traditional antivirus solutions that rely on known malware signatures are insufficient for modern OT threats. Defenders need monitoring that spots anomalous behaviour at the network level—unusual command‑and‑control traffic, unexpected lateral movement, or the misuse of legitimate administrative tools. In 2025, 56 % of penetration tests revealed that defenders could not detect adversary activity using common admin tools, underscoring the gap left by signature‑only approaches.

Understanding Dwell Time and Its Implications
When effective monitoring is in place, the average dwell time for OT ransomware dropped to five days in 2025. However, the overall average dwell time across all incidents remained at 42 days, reflecting periods where organisations lacked visibility. The contrast illustrates that continuous monitoring, proper network segmentation, and regular incident‑response exercises can mean the difference between containing an attack and facing a full‑scale rebuild.

Human Error as a Force Multiplier
Human factors are often underestimated in OT security programmes. In 2025, a threat group conducted sustained phishing campaigns that engaged engineering personnel over multiple days, using native‑language communication and industry‑specific jargon. This was not random opportunism; it was a carefully crafted social‑engineering effort aimed at credential harvesting and foothold establishment. Training must go beyond generic awareness to include role‑based simulations that reflect the specific language and processes of OT staff.

Supply‑Chain and Third‑Party Risks
Adversaries increasingly target contractors, managed‑service providers, and other third‑party partners as entry points into higher‑value OT environments. The Cl0p ransomware group exemplified this strategy by exposing operational documents across hundreds of industrial organisations without ever breaching an OT network directly. Organisations must extend their security perimeter to encompass the entire operational ecosystem, vetting third‑party access, enforcing least‑privilege principles, and monitoring external connections for abnormal patterns.

Leveraging Community Resources Like OT‑CERT
Not every organisation can afford a dedicated OT security team or costly threat‑intelligence feeds. Initiatives such as Dragos’ free OT‑CERT provide a public‑private platform where over 3,000 organisations share indicators of compromise, analysis reports, and mitigation guidance. Participating in such community resources helps level the playing field, especially for smaller utilities and manufacturers that might otherwise lack visibility into emerging OT threats.

Forecasting the 2026 Threat Landscape
Three primary risks dominate the outlook for the remainder of 2026. First, internet‑exposed OT assets remain a prolific attack surface; adversaries spent months in 2025 scanning US industrial devices across water, energy, and manufacturing sectors, gathering intelligence that will inform future intrusions. Second, the ransomware ecosystem shows no signs of slowing—148 engineering firms and 124 industrial equipment vendors were compromised in 2025, giving attackers leverage to reach multiple sites through trusted suppliers. Third, most OT environments still lack adequate detection capabilities, meaning many compromises will only be discovered after damage has occurred unless organisations invest in behavioural monitoring, segmentation, and regular readiness exercises.

By addressing these areas—asset inventory, behavioural detection, human‑factor training, supply‑chain vigilance, community collaboration, and proactive risk management—organisations can improve OT visibility, shorten dwell times, and reduce the likelihood of moving from incident containment to costly reconstruction.

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