Key Takeaways
- 76% of Canadians experienced a white Christmas in 2020, but snow depth is shrinking due to warmer Decembers and declining snowfall.
- 27 locations in Canada have seen thinner snowpacks in the past five years compared to their long-term averages.
- Banff and Whistler, two of Canada’s most famous ski destinations, have experienced significant declines in Christmas Day snowpack.
- Rising December temperatures, linked to human-caused global warming, are contributing to the reduction in snowpack.
- Canadian cities are experiencing more rain than snow throughout the winter, with the snow line shifting further north.
Introduction to the Issue
The traditional Canadian Christmas experience of waking up to snow-blanketed streets is becoming less likely as Decembers grow warmer and snowfall declines. According to Environment and Climate Change Canada, a white Christmas is defined as having at least two centimeters of snow on the ground by 7 a.m. on December 25. While 76% of Canadians still enjoyed a white Christmas in 2020, the depth of snow on the ground is shrinking. A Globe and Mail analysis of 50 years of weather data from 43 cities and ski destinations shows that snow depth is declining, with 27 locations experiencing thinner snowpacks in the past five years compared to their long-term averages.
The Impact on Ski Destinations
The steepest declines in snowpack are being seen in places that Canadians often associate with winter wonderlands, such as Banff and Whistler. These two destinations have experienced some of the largest Christmas Day snow losses on the ground among all cities studied. While they still record snow on most December 25s, the data shows that the snowpack is, on average, noticeably shallower than it was a few decades ago. This trend is concerning for the ski industry, which relies on consistent snowfall to attract tourists. The reduction in snowpack is also having an impact on the environment and ecosystems, with Dr. Lawrence Mudryk, a research scientist at Environment and Climate Change Canada, noting that "snow and ice are an iconic part of the Canadian landscape."
Regional Variations
The impact of declining snowpack is being felt across Canada, with different regions experiencing varying levels of change. In Quebec, cities along the northern stretch of the St. Lawrence River, traditionally a cold and snowy corridor, are seeing a faster decline in snow depth than other cities. Montreal, for example, has seen its average snow depth on December 25 fall by nearly 40% in recent years compared to the long-term average since 1975. In contrast, Toronto’s long-term and recent average snow depth on Christmas Day remain fairly unchanged, although the city has swung between deep snowpacks and bare ground over the past 50 years.
The Role of Temperature
Rising December temperatures are closely tied to the decline in snowpack. Studies have linked the reduction in snowpack to human-caused global warming, with even a modest increase in temperature translating into a major reduction in snowpack. The Globe’s analysis found that 38 of the 42 cities with complete temperature data have experienced warmer Decembers when comparing recent years to the historical average. Dr. Mudryk attributes the shift towards more rain than snow throughout the winter to climate change, noting that "what you might see more of in the future is increased amounts of rain before Christmas, and then that reduces the total amount of accumulation of snow that we see by Christmas."
The Future of Canadian Winters
As the climate continues to warm, Canadians may need to adapt to new winter realities. With the snow line shifting further north, many Canadian cities are experiencing winters with alternating rain and snow. Dr. Mudryk suggests that Canadians may need to look to warmer locations and see how they already celebrate holidays, noting that "it’s more than just the cultural impact. More importantly, there are also environmental and ecosystem impacts as well." The country’s three largest metropolitan areas – Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver – illustrate how national trends play out locally in very different winter climates. As the climate continues to change, it will be important for Canadians to be aware of these shifts and to adapt to the new realities of winter in Canada.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the traditional Canadian Christmas experience of waking up to snow-blanketed streets is becoming less likely as Decembers grow warmer and snowfall declines. The decline in snowpack is being felt across Canada, with different regions experiencing varying levels of change. Rising December temperatures, linked to human-caused global warming, are contributing to the reduction in snowpack. As the climate continues to warm, Canadians may need to adapt to new winter realities, including more rain than snow throughout the winter and a shifting snow line. By understanding these changes, Canadians can better prepare for the future and work to mitigate the impacts of climate change on their environment and ecosystems.
