Key Takeaways
- Precipitation distribution is expected to be fairly even across the province, but snowfall totals will vary based on temperature differences
- Higher snowfall totals are expected in northern sections of Central Ontario, including Parry Sound, Muskoka, Algonquin Park, and Bancroft
- Lake effect enhancement will contribute to higher snowfall totals in certain areas, including east of Lake Huron and the Dundalk Highlands
- Snowfall totals will be lower in areas exposed to the shorelines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, including Toronto and surrounding cities
- Temperatures will play a significant role in determining snowfall totals, with colder temperatures leading to higher accumulations
Introduction to Snowfall Distribution
When it comes to the distribution of precipitation, it is expected to fall fairly evenly across the province. However, snowfall totals will vary based on temperature differences, which will influence how efficiently the snow can accumulate. This variation in temperature will have a significant impact on the amount of snow that falls in different areas, with colder temperatures leading to higher accumulations. As a result, it is essential to consider the temperature forecast when predicting snowfall totals.
Regional Snowfall Totals
The higher snowfall totals from this event are expected in the more northern sections of Central Ontario and extending into the Sudbury and North Bay region. This includes areas such as Parry Sound, Muskoka, Algonquin Park, and Bancroft. These regions will see more sustained below-freezing temperatures throughout the event, along with lake effect enhancement late Sunday. With this, snowfall totals of around 10 to 20cm are expected, with locally up to 25cm possible in the heavier lake effect pockets. This significant snowfall is due to the combination of cold temperatures and lake effect enhancement, which will contribute to higher accumulations in these areas.
Lake Effect Enhancement
A similar situation is expected east of Lake Huron and along the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands and Oak Ridges Moraine, where slightly colder temperatures will help accumulations. Expect snowfall totals of 10 to 20cm in these areas as well, with localized totals around 25cm, especially east of Lake Huron. The lake effect enhancement will play a significant role in these areas, contributing to higher snowfall totals. This phenomenon occurs when cold air passes over the warmer waters of the lake, causing the air to rise and cool, resulting in precipitation. As a result, areas downwind of the lake will experience higher snowfall totals due to this enhancement.
Southern Ontario Snowfall Totals
Everyone else, with the exception of the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, is looking at a general 5 to 10cm of snow. Some areas could see locally up to 15cm if temperatures end up just a bit cooler than expected. This includes the rest of Southwestern Ontario into Windsor, Chatham, and Sarnia, the Lake Simcoe region, and parts of the Ottawa Valley. These areas will experience lower snowfall totals due to warmer temperatures, which will limit the accumulation of snow. However, if temperatures do end up cooler than expected, snowfall totals could be higher in these areas.
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Shorelines
For communities exposed to the shorelines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, which includes Toronto, Oshawa, Oakville, Hamilton, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Port Colborne, and Rondeau, snowfall totals will likely be closer to the 2 to 5cm range. This is due to the warmer air intrusion and rain mixing during the latter part of the system. The warmer air from the lakes will limit the accumulation of snow in these areas, resulting in lower snowfall totals. As a result, residents in these areas can expect less snow than those in other parts of the province.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the distribution of precipitation is expected to be fairly even across the province, but snowfall totals will vary based on temperature differences. The higher snowfall totals are expected in northern sections of Central Ontario, while areas exposed to the shorelines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will experience lower snowfall totals. Lake effect enhancement will contribute to higher snowfall totals in certain areas, and temperatures will play a significant role in determining snowfall totals. As a result, it is essential to consider the temperature forecast when predicting snowfall totals, and residents should be prepared for varying amounts of snow depending on their location.