Key Takeaways:
- Canada’s wildfire seasons are growing longer, larger, and more destructive, with a smaller number of increasingly large wildfires burning more land than in the past.
- The trend is driven by rising temperatures and longer fire seasons, with human-caused fires increasing again since the early 2000s due to hotter, drier conditions.
- The largest fires now account for a growing share of the damage, with conventional firefighting tactics becoming limited, forcing crews to focus on containment and protection rather than stopping the fire outright.
- The insurance industry is warning that rising wildfire risk is reshaping losses, premiums, and long-term housing decisions across the country, with insurance losses from wildfires increasing by 1,000% in the past decade.
- The impact of wildfires is becoming increasingly visible on a national scale, with significant effects on wildlife, ecosystems, and human communities.
Introduction to Canada’s Wildfire Trends
Canada’s wildfire seasons are becoming increasingly severe, with a six-decade analysis of fire records by the federal government’s Canadian Forest Service revealing a trend of longer, larger, and more destructive fires. The study shows that this trend is not driven by more frequent fires, but rather by a smaller number of increasingly large wildfires that are burning more land than in the past. This reinforces a trend that federal scientists first identified years ago, and is consistent with the findings of a 2019 study that suggested wildfire activity across the country had increased steadily since the mid-20th century, driven by rising temperatures and longer fire seasons.
The Updated Study and Its Findings
The updated study, recently published in the Canadian Journal of Forest Research, extends the analysis through 2024 using improved satellite mapping and nine additional fire seasons that comprise several of the most severe on record, including 2021, 2023, and 2024. The research found that the area burned from wildfires continues to rise across nearly all Canadian eco-zones, even in the Pacific Northwest and Atlantic Canada regions, which were once considered lower risk due to wetter conditions. The study also illustrates how the largest fires now account for a growing share of the damage, and that while lightning continues to drive most wildfires, human-caused fires have begun increasing again since the early 2000s. This shift is linked to hotter, drier conditions that make more ignitions harder to control, rather than policy failure.
The Impact of Climate Change on Wildfires
The increase in human-caused fires, particularly the larger fires, is attributed to the fact that fuels are drier, according to Chelene Hanes, a research scientist with the Canadian Forest Service. This is a result of climate change, which is leading to hotter and drier conditions that make it easier for fires to start and spread. Hanes notes that the largest fires now reach a scale and intensity where conventional firefighting tactics become limited, forcing crews to focus on containment and protection rather than stopping the fire outright. The impact of the largest wildfire events is becoming increasingly visible on a national scale, with significant effects on wildlife, ecosystems, and human communities.
Recent Wildfire Seasons and Their Impact
The dynamics described by Hanes have played out repeatedly in recent wildfire seasons across the country. In July 2021, wildfires driven by extreme heat and record temperatures swept through British Columbia, notably destroying the village of Lytton, which had just recorded Canada’s highest temperature on record, at 41.3 C. The 2023 wildfire season was widely reported as the most severe on record in Canadian history, scorching more than 15 million hectares and prompting large-scale evacuations and significant smoke pollution across Canada and into the United States. In 2024, a wildfire in Jasper National Park in Alberta forced the evacuation of roughly 25,000 people, destroyed hundreds of structures, and became one of the country’s most costly disasters of the year.
The Insurance Industry’s Response to Wildfire Risk
The shift in the wildfire landscape is also being felt in Canada’s insurance industry, which is warning that rising wildfire risk is reshaping losses, premiums, and long-term housing decisions across the country. According to Liam McGuinty, vice-president of federal affairs at the Insurance Bureau of Canada, insurance losses from wildfires in Canada have increased by 1,000% in the past decade, from $70 million per year between 2005 and 2014 to $750 million per year in the most recent decade. The industry is responding by adjusting how it prices coverage in the most exposed communities, which can mean higher premiums or changes to policies as companies manage their overall risk. However, McGuinty emphasized that wildfire coverage remains part of a standard home insurance policy in Canada, and that coverage is "widely available".