Key Takeaways
- Canada has reported its largest population drop on record, with a 0.2% decrease in the third quarter of 2023, attributed to a decline in temporary foreign students and workers.
- The number of non-permanent residents in Canada decreased by 176,479, a nearly six-per cent drop, due to fewer international study permit-holders.
- The population decrease was concentrated in Ontario and British Columbia, which are home to the country’s largest international student populations.
- The decline is a result of changing government policies concerning international migration, including new limits on temporary residents and a planned 35% reduction in study permits issued over two years.
- Permanent immigration remained steady, with Canada welcoming 102,867 new immigrants in the third quarter, helping to offset the drop in overall population.
Introduction to Canada’s Population Drop
Canada has reported its largest population drop on record, with a 0.2% decrease in the third quarter of 2023. According to Statistics Canada, the national population fell by 76,068 people, bringing the total population to 41,575,585 as of October 1. This decline is largely attributed to a significant decrease in temporary foreign students and workers. The agency notes that the number of non-permanent residents in Canada decreased by 176,479 over the same period, a nearly six-per cent drop, which is the largest since records began in 1971.
Causes of the Population Decline
The decrease in non-permanent residents is primarily due to fewer international study permit-holders. Statistics Canada points to recent federal efforts to cap the number of permits issued per year as a major contributing factor. The government has announced plans to reduce the number of study permits issued in 2025 by 10% from the previous year, as well as tighten rules around work permits. This move is part of a planned 35% reduction in study permits issued over two years, aimed at reducing the number of temporary residents in Canada from 6.5% of the total population to 5%. As of October 1, non-permanent residents make up 6.8% of the total population, down from 7.3% on July 1 of this year.
Provincial Population Trends
The population decrease was not uniform across all provinces and territories. Every province and territory except for Alberta and Nunavut saw population decreases, with Ontario and British Columbia experiencing the biggest drops of 0.4 and 0.3%, respectively. Ontario and British Columbia are also home to the country’s largest international student populations, and the decrease in study permit holders nationally was "concentrated" in those two provinces. Alberta’s population increase was the lowest since the second quarter of 2021, while Nunavut saw an overall 0.2% population increase.
Impact of Government Policies
The decline in temporary foreign students and workers is a result of changing government policies concerning international migration. The government’s efforts to reduce the number of temporary residents in Canada have led to a decrease in international study permit-holders. The number of sole work permit holders also decreased, although to a lesser extent. Statistics Canada notes that the trend is the result of government policies, including the planned reduction in study permits issued over two years. The agency also notes that the most recent quarterly decrease was due to "record-high" numbers of non-permanent residents leaving due to expired permits.
Permanent Immigration and Asylum Claims
While the population decline was driven by a decrease in temporary residents, permanent immigration remained steady. Canada welcomed 102,867 new immigrants in the third quarter, which is in line with the government’s 2025-2027 immigration levels plan. The plan sought to reduce the number of expected new permanent residents from an earlier target of 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025, with further reductions in the following two years. As of October 1, Canada has welcomed 310,584 immigrants this year. The number of asylum claimants and other protected refugees also increased by 7,324 in the third quarter, marking the 15th straight quarterly increase and bringing the total number in the country to a record high of 504,767 people.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
In conclusion, Canada’s population drop is a result of a decline in temporary foreign students and workers, driven by changing government policies concerning international migration. While permanent immigration remained steady, the decrease in temporary residents has led to a significant drop in the overall population. The government’s plans to reduce the number of temporary residents in Canada and stabilize immigration levels between 2026 and 2028 will likely continue to shape the country’s population trends in the coming years. As the population continues to evolve, it will be important to monitor the impact of government policies on immigration and population growth.