Key Takeaways
- Temporary worker arrivals to Canada have fallen by roughly 60 % for the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) and 65 % for the International Mobility Program (IMP) between January 2024 and January 2026.
- The downturn began after a strong spring‑summer peak in early 2024 and has settled into a new, lower baseline by late 2025.
- Federal policy changes introduced since 2024—tighter labour‑market‑impact‑assessment requirements, limits on employer use of foreign labour, and a broader goal to curb temporary‑resident growth—are driving the decline.
- Seasonal fluctuations persist (higher arrivals in spring/summer), but the overall ceiling for temporary admissions has been substantially reduced.
- Employers will face tighter labour markets, especially in sectors reliant on temporary workers, while prospective immigrants may need to rely more on permanent‑residence pathways.
Overview of the Decline in Temporary Worker Arrivals
Canada has experienced a sharp and sustained reduction in the number of new temporary workers entering the country. Federal data show that admissions across the two main temporary‑worker streams have fallen by more than half since early 2024, signalling a deliberate policy shift rather than a temporary blip. The trend is evident in both monthly counts and the broader seasonal pattern, indicating that the government is actively managing the size of the temporary‑resident population.
Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) Trends
In January 2024 Canada welcomed 6,525 TFWP workers; by January 2026 that figure had dropped to just 2,675—a decline of nearly 60 %. The program’s monthly arrivals peaked in April and May 2024 at over 10,000, reflecting typical spring hiring and a backlog of applications. After mid‑2024, however, numbers began a steady descent, settling by late 2025 in the 2,000‑to‑3,000 range per month. This consistent reduction points to tightened eligibility criteria and heightened scrutiny of employer applications under the TFWP.
International Mobility Program (IMP) Trends
The IMP has seen an even steeper contraction. January 2024 recorded 26,620 IMP entrants, while January 2026 logged only 9,175—a drop of roughly 65 %. The program reached a remarkable high of more than 56,000 arrivals in March 2024, driven by seasonal demand and the processing of accumulated cases. From the second half of 2024 onward, IMP admissions fell steadily, stabilising between 7,000 and 11,000 per month by the end of 2025. Although a modest spring‑summer bump remains, the overall volume is markedly lower than in previous years.
Seasonal Patterns Amid the Decline
Despite the overall reduction, a seasonal rhythm is still discernible: arrivals tend to rise in the spring and summer months and dip during fall and winter. This pattern persisted throughout 2024‑2025, but the amplitude of the seasonal swing has shrunk. In other words, while employers still hire more temporary workers during peak periods, the ceiling for those hires has been lowered substantially, indicating a structural reset rather than merely a timing shift.
Policy Measures Behind the Drop
The downward trajectory aligns closely with federal initiatives announced after 2024 to curb the growth of temporary residents. Key measures include:
- Stricter Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) requirements for TFWP employers, making it harder to obtain approval for foreign hires.
- Caps and heightened scrutiny on IMP streams that previously allowed easier access, such as intra‑company transfers and certain international agreements.
- Broader messaging from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) emphasising “controlled and sustainable” immigration levels to alleviate pressure on housing, infrastructure, and public services.
Data suggest these policies have moved from announcement to implementation, producing the observed, sustained decline in admissions.
Implications for Employers
For businesses that rely on temporary foreign labour—particularly in agriculture, hospitality, construction, and tech—the reduced inflow translates into tighter labour markets. Employers may encounter longer vacancies, increased competition for the limited pool of available workers, and potentially higher wages as they bid for scarce talent. Seasonal peaks will still create recruitment pressure, but the overall diminished supply means firms must adapt by investing in domestic training, automation, or exploring alternative immigration routes such as provincial nominee programs that lead to permanent residence.
Implications for Prospective Immigrants
Individuals seeking to enter Canada through temporary work permits now face fewer pathways. The decline in TFWP and IMP admissions implies that work‑permit‑based entry is becoming more selective and less readily available. Consequently, many prospective immigrants may need to prioritize permanent‑residence streams—such as Express Entry, Provincial Nominee Programs, or other economic‑class pathways—to secure status in Canada. This shift could increase the competitiveness of those programs and elevate the importance of qualifying criteria like education, language proficiency, and Canadian work experience.
A Turning Point in Canada’s Immigration Strategy
The sustained reduction in temporary worker arrivals marks a notable pivot in Canada’s immigration approach. After years of expanding temporary‑resident numbers to meet labour‑demand spikes, the government is now actively lowering the inflow to align with broader socioeconomic objectives. If the current trajectory continues, the 2,000‑to‑3,000 monthly TFWP figure and the 7,000‑to‑11,000 monthly IMP range observed in late 2025‑early 2026 may become the new normal. This recalibration suggests a longer‑term commitment to managing population growth, housing affordability, and service capacity while still addressing genuine labour shortages through more selective and potentially permanent‑resident‑focused channels.
Summary of Frequently Asked Questions
- Why are arrivals declining? Federal policy aims to ease pressure on housing and public services by reducing temporary‑resident numbers, tightening work‑permit access, and limiting employer reliance on foreign labour.
- What distinguishes TFWP from IMP? TFWP requires employers to obtain an LMIA, proving no Canadian worker is available; IMP permits hiring without an LMIA in specific circumstances such as intra‑company transfers or under international treaties.
- Was the drop sudden or gradual? The decline has been gradual yet consistent, beginning after strong early‑2024 inflows and continuing through 2025, indicating a policy‑driven adjustment rather than a short‑term fluctuation.
- Does seasonality still matter? Yes, higher arrivals persist in spring and summer, but the overall volume is significantly lower than before, reflecting a reduced ceiling rather than a change in timing.
- What does this mean for future immigrants? Fewer temporary‑work opportunities may push applicants toward permanent‑residence pathways, increasing competition in programs like Express Entry and provincial nominee streams.
In essence, Canada’s temporary‑worker landscape has undergone a profound transformation: admissions have been halved, policy levers have been tightened, and a new, lower baseline has emerged. Employers must adapt to a tighter labour market, while prospective immigrants may need to recalibrate their strategies toward permanent residence. The trend reflects a broader governmental emphasis on sustainable immigration levels that balance economic needs with societal capacities.