Key Takeaways:
- The United States, under Donald Trump’s leadership, has shown a willingness to use military force to achieve its interests, including securing access to natural resources.
- Canada’s oil, minerals, and water make it a valuable resource hinterland for the US, and the country may be at risk of US military coercion.
- The US National Security Strategy outlines a "Trump corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine, which aims to establish US pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere.
- Canada should prepare for potential US military action by investing in national service and homeland defense, building domestic defense industries, and developing a national drone strategy.
- The country should also bolster ties with traditional allies and novel partners to marshal a global consensus against US aggression.
Introduction to the Threat of US Aggression
The presidency of Donald Trump has been marked by a series of military interventions and aggressive actions, despite his initial promises to avoid "nation building" and "forever wars." The US has launched military actions in several countries, including Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and Iraq, and has also bombed Iran’s nuclear weapons complexes. Recently, the US has launched missiles against Islamic terrorists in northern Nigeria and has declared its intention to take action against Iran. These actions demonstrate a willingness to use military force to achieve US interests, and Canada should take note of the potential risks.
The Value of Canada’s Natural Resources
From the perspective of the US, Canada is a valuable resource hinterland, with significant reserves of oil, minerals, and water. The US National Security Strategy outlines a "Trump corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine, which aims to establish US pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere. This doctrine may lead the US to view Canada as a key player in its regional strategy, and the country’s natural resources may be seen as a vital component of US interests. The fact that the US has shown a willingness to use military force to secure access to natural resources, as seen in the case of Venezuela, should be a cause for concern for Canada.
The Risk of US Military Coercion
The US has a history of intervening in the affairs of other countries, particularly in the Western Hemisphere. In the past, the US has intervened in countries such as Guatemala, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Chile, Nicaragua, Grenada, and Panama, often citing concerns about communism or national security. Today, the Trump administration has little affection for Canada, and the country’s natural resources may be seen as a tempting target. The fact that the US has shown a willingness to use military force to achieve its interests, combined with the country’s history of intervention in the region, should lead Canada to prepare for the possibility of US military coercion.
A Plausible Scenario for US Military Action
One possible scenario for US military action against Canada involves an independence referendum in Alberta, in which separatists receive significant support. The US could declare the result "fake" and claim that the separatists have the support of the majority, leading to a call for Alberta to join the US as the "51st state." In this scenario, the US could move troops to the northern Montana border and demand that Canada allow Alberta to secede. This scenario may seem far-fetched, but it is not entirely implausible, given the US’s history of intervention in the region and its willingness to use military force to achieve its interests.
Preparing for the Worst-Case Scenario
In order to prepare for the possibility of US military action, Canada should take several steps. First, the country should ensure the integrity of its electoral processes, in order to prevent the kind of manipulation that could lead to a separatist movement. Second, Canada should invest in national service and homeland defense, in order to build up its military capabilities and deter potential US aggression. Third, the country should build up its domestic defense industries, in order to reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers and increase its ability to respond to a military threat. Finally, Canada should develop a national drone strategy, in order to improve its surveillance and response capabilities.
Building International Support
In addition to preparing for the worst-case scenario, Canada should also work to build international support for its position. The country should bolster ties with traditional allies, such as the UK and France, as well as novel partners, such as Finland and the Baltic republics. Canada should also work with other countries that are similarly threatened by giant neighbors, such as Mexico and Taiwan, to build a global consensus against US aggression. By working together, these countries can marshal a strong response to US aggression and demonstrate that such actions will not be tolerated by the international community.
Conclusion
The presidency of Donald Trump has been marked by a series of aggressive actions, and Canada should take note of the potential risks. The country’s natural resources, including oil, minerals, and water, make it a valuable target for the US, and the country’s history of intervention in the region should be a cause for concern. By preparing for the worst-case scenario, building international support, and demonstrating a strong and united front, Canada can deter potential US aggression and protect its sovereignty. The world is a complex and unpredictable place, but one thing is certain: Canada must be prepared to defend its interests and its values in the face of US aggression.
