Key Takeaways
- Donald Trump’s disapproval rating has risen to a record 62 %, while his approval sits at 37 %.
- Economic issues, especially the cost of living, drive the lowest approval (23 % approve, 76 % disapprove).
- His handling of the Iran‑related oil crisis is widely criticized (66 % disapprove).
- Republican base support remains strong (85 % approve overall), but “strong” approval has slipped from 53 % to 45 %.
- Independents and Republican‑leaning independents show declining support (25 % approval overall, 56 % among leaners).
- Democrats hold a growing advantage in generic House ballots (5‑point lead among all registered voters, 9‑point among those certain to vote).
- Voter enthusiasm is higher among Democrats (73 % view the midterms as “much more important”) than Republicans (52 %).
- Majorities oppose specific Trump actions: ending birthright citizenship, cutting medical‑research funding, raising defense spending, and terminating temporary protected status for migrants from war‑torn countries.
- About 70 % of Americans say Trump is not honest and trustworthy, and roughly 60 % doubt his mental sharpness for the presidency.
Overall Approval and Disapproval Trends
Six months before the November midterms, Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 37 %, essentially unchanged from the 39 % recorded in February. However, his disapproval has climbed to 62 %, marking the highest level of negative sentiment across both of his presidential terms. This shift reflects a growing unease among the electorate that is not offset by modest gains in his core supporters. The poll, conducted by The Washington Post, ABC News, and Ipsos, underscores a widening gap between those who approve and those who disapprove of the president’s performance, setting a challenging backdrop for Republican candidates seeking to retain control of Congress.
Economic Concerns and the Iran War
The cost of living emerges as Trump’s weakest policy area, with only 23 % of Americans approving his handling and a staggering 76 % expressing disapproval. Inflation‑driven price increases for gasoline, food, and household goods have fueled public frustration. Compounding this dissatisfaction is Trump’s controversial decision to launch a military‑style pressure campaign against Iran in February, which analysts say helped trigger a global oil crisis and pushed U.S. gas prices to a four‑year high. On this foreign‑policy move, 66 % of respondents disapprove, while just 32 % approve, indicating that the administration’s aggressive stance abroad is viewed as exacerbating domestic economic strain.
Immigration and Border Policy
On immigration, Trump’s approval remains low at 40 %, with 59 % disapproving overall. His more narrowly focused border enforcement initiative fares slightly better, garnering 45 % approval versus 56 % disapproval. Despite the deployment of federal immigration and border agents to cities nationwide—a tactic that resulted in thousands of detentions and the tragic deaths of two American citizens—public sentiment has not shifted markedly. The data suggest that while some voters appreciate a tougher border stance, the broader immigration agenda continues to be a liability for the president.
Party‑Specific Ratings
Within the Republican base, Trump retains considerable loyalty: 85 % of Republicans approve of his performance overall. Yet the intensity of that support is waning; only 45 % now say they “strongly” approve, down from 53 % in February. Among Republican‑leaning independents, approval has fallen to a new low of 56 %. These trends signal a softening of enthusiasm even among traditionally reliable supporters, potentially affecting turnout and down‑ballot performance for GOP candidates in contested districts.
Independents and Swing Voters
Independents, a crucial swing constituency, view Trump unfavorably, with his approval rating slipping to 25 % and disapproval climbing correspondingly. This erosion among unaffiliated voters undermines the president’s ability to broaden his appeal beyond the partisan core. As independents often decide close races, their declining confidence could translate into weaker Republican showings in battleground House and Senate seats where moderate voters hold the balance of power.
House and Senate Prospects
The poll’s generic ballot question reveals a Democratic advantage: among all registered voters, Democrats lead Republicans by five points in preferred House control, up from a two‑point edge in February and October. Among voters who say they are “absolutely certain” to vote, the Democratic lead expands to nine points. Such a margin, if sustained, threatens the Republicans’ slender House majority and puts their Senate majority at risk, especially in states where suburban and independent voters have shown increased Democratic leaning.
Voter Enthusiasm and Certainty
Enthusiasm for the upcoming midterms diverges sharply along party lines. Seventy‑three percent of Democrats describe the elections as “much more important” than past midterms, compared with just 52 % of Republicans. Similarly, 79 % of Democrats say they are absolutely certain to vote, while only 59 % of non‑Maga Republicans and 77 % of Maga‑identified Republicans express the same certainty. This enthusiasm gap suggests Democrats may enjoy higher turnout, amplifying their structural advantages in voter preference polls.
Specific Policy Opposition
Beyond overall approval, the survey gauged resistance to particular Trump initiatives. Majorities oppose his attempt to end birthright citizenship, his proposed cuts to federal funding for medical research, increases to defense spending, and his administration’s efforts to terminate temporary protected status for migrants fleeing war‑torn nations. These findings indicate that even among voters who may approve of certain aspects of his agenda, specific policy moves generate substantial backlash, further eroding his broad‑based appeal.
Trustworthiness and Mental Acuity
Finally, the poll probed perceptions of Trump’s character and fitness for office. Approximately seven in ten Americans (about 70 %) say he is not honest and trustworthy, while roughly six in ten (about 60 %) doubt he possesses the mental sharpness required to serve effectively as president. Such pervasive doubts about credibility and competence compound the policy‑specific criticisms and contribute to the overall high disapproval rating, presenting a formidable challenge for any Republican seeking to capitalize on his legacy in the November elections.