Key Takeaways
- One Nation’s primary support fell to 22 % (down two points) – its lowest level in three months, though still far above its 2023 election result of 6.4 %.
- The Coalition edged One Nation with 23 % primary support, a gain of one point, while Labor’s vote steadied at 32 %.
- Pauline Hanson’s net likeability dropped four points to +6, whereas Angus Taylor enjoys a +16 rating and Albanese remains at –12.
- Despite rising petrol prices (≈ US $120 / barrel) driven by the U.S.–Israel war on Iran, 79 % of Australians altered driving habits and 27 % cut spending on other goods.
- Free or discounted public transport extensions in Victoria and a rise in remote‑work options are among the public’s cost‑of‑living responses.
Survey Overview and Timing
Conducted by Resolve Political Monitor from 13 to 18 April 2026, the poll sampled 1 807 Australians and carries a typical margin of error of about ± 2.3 percentage points. The fieldwork coincided with the outbreak of the U.S.–Israel military campaign against Iran, which sent global oil prices to near‑record levels and intensified cost‑of‑living pressures nationwide.
One Nation’s Recent Trajectory
One Nation’s primary support slipped to 22 % in April, down two points from the previous month and marking its lowest figure since January 2026, when it stood at 18 %. Despite this decline, the party remains sharply above its 6.4 % share at the 2023 federal election, indicating a durable base of support that has yet to evaporate completely.
Coalition’s Modest Recovery
The Coalition gained one point to 23 % primary support, matching the level it held shortly after Angus Taylor replaced Sussan Ley as Liberal leader in February 2026. Although the Coalition now narrowly leads One Nation by a single point, that margin falls within the poll’s error range, suggesting the two parties are effectively tied in voter intention.
Labor’s Steady Position
Labor’s primary vote recovered to 32 % after a dip to 29 % in March, though it remains shy of the 34.6 % Anthony Albanese secured at the May 2023 election. The party’s vote has shown resilience amid the cost‑of‑living squeeze, maintaining a stable core of backing while the minor parties fluctuate.
Leader Likeability Ratings
Angus Taylor enjoys the highest net likeability among surveyed leaders at +16, reflecting a positive personal image despite modest party gains. Pauline Hanson’s likeability fell four points to +6, down from a January peak of +15, indicating a softening of her personal appeal. Anthony Albanese remains unpopular with a net rating of –12, a figure unchanged since February.
Preferred Prime Minister and Undecided Voters
When asked who they prefer as prime minister, 33 % chose Albanese, 32 % selected Taylor, and 34 % were undecided. Albanese’s performance rating improved to 30 % “good” (his highest of the year), yet 52 % still view his job performance poorly. Taylor’s good performance rating stands at 41 %, well above the 26 % who rate him poorly, though a third of respondents remain unsure about his leadership.
Impact of the Iran War on Petrol Prices
The conflict pushed global oil prices to almost US $120 a barrel, prompting widespread behavioural change. 79 % of respondents reported altering their driving habits, with 58 % saying they drive less. Low‑income earners (67 %), retirees, and rural/regional residents (both 64 %) were the most likely to forego car trips.
Cost‑of‑Living Adjustments Beyond Driving
Beyond transport, 27 % of Australians said they had reduced purchases on other goods and services, while only 21 % claimed they had made no changes at all. High‑income earners were the least likely to curb spending (25 % reported no change). The dominant policy priority identified by 42 % of respondents was “keeping the cost of living low,” far outweighing concerns about housing (8 %), immigration (6 %), or healthcare (7 %).
Public Transport, Work Habits, and Political Implications
In response to fuel costs, 19 % shifted to public transport, walking, or cycling for work, and 1 in 5 said they skipped a planned Easter trip. The Victorian state government announced an extension of free public transport for another month, followed by halved fares for the remainder of the year. Pollster Jim Reed noted a rise in remote‑working arrangements, suggesting the pandemic‑era shift to flexible work has persisted. Politically, while Labor maintains a 55‑45 % two‑party preferred lead, 38 % of voters expect Labor to win the next election, 22 % favour the Coalition, and 16 % anticipate “someone else”—a category largely interpreted as One Nation—indicating continued belief in the minor party’s electoral relevance despite recent dips in support.