Key Takeaways
- Barnaby Joyce claims One Nation is gaining traction in Western Sydney, citing polling and recent electoral results.
- Pollster Tony Barry describes Joyce’s outlook as “a bit ambitious” but notes four seats—Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie, and Greenway—where One Nation could be competitive.
- Economic stress, self‑employment, and support among Gen X men are identified as pre‑conditions that favour One Nation’s appeal.
- Liverpool’s ongoing redevelopment and the prospect of a recession add uncertainty to voter behaviour in the region.
- Local leaders, including Liverpool Mayor Ned Mannoun and NSW Premier Chris Minns, express scepticism about One Nation’s broader viability, warning that anti‑immigration policies could harm the local economy and urging focus on substantive policy delivery.
Joyce’s optimism about One Nation’s prospects
Former Liberal Party strategist and One Nation recruit Barnaby Joyce told Radio National Breakfast that residents of western Sydney are “quite at home with the idea of One Nation being a dominant force” and are “absolutely 100 per cent on board” with that vision. He pointed to opinion polls showing rising support for the party, which he said were validated by the March South Australian state election—where One Nation achieved its best result in nearly three decades—and the recent Farrer by‑election, in which the party broke the Coalition’s long‑standing hold on the seat.
Pollster Tony Barry’s cautious assessment
Tony Barry, director at pollster Redbridge, characterised Joyce’s enthusiasm as “a little bit ambitious.” While acknowledging that One Nation could perform well under certain conditions, Barry warned that it is premature to predict a sweeping victory in the western suburbs. He highlighted several pre‑conditions that align with the One Nation voter profile: economic stress and insecurity, a significant self‑employed workforce, and strong backing from Gen X men—about 35 % of whom currently support the party.
Four seats identified as potential battlegrounds
According to Barry, four federal electorates in western Sydney present realistic opportunities for One Nation: Lindsay (covering Penrith), Macarthur, Macquarie, and Greenway. He described these as seats where, “on a sunny day,” the party could win, noting that the underlying socio‑economic conditions are already present. However, he stressed that the party’s success would depend on how those conditions evolve over the next electoral cycle.
Impact of local development and economic uncertainty
Barry added that the massive redevelopment underway in Liverpool—and similar changes across Sydney’s west—could reshape voter priorities. Coupled with the looming threat of an economic recession, these factors introduce considerable uncertainty about how electorates will behave in two years. He cautioned that, in times of anxiety, voters may gravitate toward familiar parties rather than embrace newer alternatives like One Nation.
Local skepticism about anti‑immigration policies
Liverpool Mayor Ned Mannoun, a Liberal Party member, dismissed the notion that One Nation’s anti‑immigration stance would resonate in metropolitan western Sydney. He argued that restricting migration would raise costs for everyday goods—citing hypothetical price hikes for coffee and avocado toast—and would deprive the hospitality sector of essential workers, ultimately harming the local economy. Mannoun urged politicians to focus on policies that improve living standards rather than rely on divisive rhetoric.
NSW Premier Chris Minns on the political shift
Premier Chris Minns acknowledged that the Farrer by‑election result showed “a lot of people” supporting One Nation and feeling “under pressure” in some Labor seats. He said Labor would not preference One Nation in the upcoming state election, instead aiming to win back disillusioned Labor voters by delivering tangible improvements. Minns challenged the state Coalition to clarify whether it would preference One Nation, as it did in the Farrer by‑election, warning that vague promises of “we’re coming” are insufficient without concrete policy proposals.
Historical context of Liberal‑One Nation relations
Minns noted that Liberal leaders have historically opposed One Nation’s values, citing figures from John Howard to Kerry Chikarovski who viewed the party as detrimental to both state and national interests. He suggested that any shift toward preferencing One Nation would represent a “big change for NSW politics,” potentially altering long‑standing alliances and campaign strategies.
Federal perspectives on a possible coalition
Federal Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson avoided ruling out a future coalition with One Nation on ABC’s Insiders, though he later stated he would “never, ever, ever” support such an arrangement. Minns warned that a Liberal‑National‑One Nation coalition would be “chaos,” a characterization dismissed by NSW Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane as “fantasy land.” Sloane accused Minns of exaggerating the threat, asserting that her party remains focused on policy outcomes rather than preference deals, while pledging to listen to voter signals from the Farrer result.
Conclusion: uncertainty tempered by opportunity
The commentary surrounding One Nation’s potential in western Sydney blends optimism with caution. While Joyce sees a receptive electorate energised by economic insecurity and cultural anxieties, analysts like Barry stress that success hinges on evolving socio‑economic factors, local development, and voter responses to a possible recession. Local leaders warn that anti‑immigration platforms may backfire in a diverse, service‑oriented economy, urging parties to prioritise substantive policy over ideological positioning. As the next federal election approaches, the interplay of these dynamics will determine whether One Nation can translate its current momentum into tangible seats—or whether the region’s voters will ultimately favour stability and proven governance.