Key Takeaways
- One Nation’s primary vote has surged to a record-high 22% in the latest Guardian Essential poll
- The Labor government’s response to the Bondi beach terror attack has received widespread public support, with majority backing crackdowns on guns, hate speech, and protests
- Anthony Albanese’s personal approval rating continues to fall, with 55% of respondents disapproving of his handling of the fallout from the antisemitic shooting
- The Liberal-National Coalition is facing internal unrest, with Sussan Ley’s leadership under threat and a potential spill as early as next week
- Australians believe there is tension between people of different races and nationalities, with 70% saying they think this is the case
Introduction to the Poll Results
The latest Guardian Essential poll has revealed a significant shift in public opinion, with One Nation’s primary vote surging to a record-high 22%. This increase in support for the party has been driven in part by the ongoing chaos within the Coalition and rising social tensions. The poll, which was conducted between Tuesday and Friday last week, also found that the Labor government’s response to the Bondi beach terror attack has received widespread public support, with a majority backing crackdowns on guns, hate speech, and protests. However, the prime minister’s personal approval rating continues to fall, with 55% of respondents disapproving of his handling of the fallout from the antisemitic shooting.
The Rise of One Nation
One Nation’s rising polling numbers have been a factor in growing unrest and alarm inside the opposition, including the Nationals’ decision to split from the Liberals and the leadership jostling from Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor. The party’s leader, Pauline Hanson, has been recruiting high-profile defectors, including former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, and is expected to continue to gain support in regional and rural Coalition seats. The Essential poll found that One Nation’s primary vote was a five-point surge from the 17% recorded in December’s poll, with other polls also recording similar increases. This shift in support is likely to have significant implications for the upcoming election, with the Coalition facing a significant challenge from One Nation in key seats.
The Fallout from the Bondi Terror Attack
The Bondi beach terror attack has had a significant impact on public opinion, with a majority of respondents backing the government’s response to the attack. The poll found that 73% of respondents supported banning the public display of terrorist symbols, 63% approved of stronger gun laws, and 62% backed more police powers to curb protests. However, only 36% of respondents approved of the prime minister’s handling of the fallout from the attack, with 55% disapproving. This suggests that while the government’s response to the attack has been widely supported, the prime minister’s personal handling of the situation has been criticized by many.
Leadership Challenges
The Liberal-National Coalition is facing significant leadership challenges, with Sussan Ley’s leadership under threat and a potential spill as early as next week. The Essential poll found that Ley’s approval rating had dropped to 30%, with a disapproval rating of 47%. The prime minister’s approval rating has also fallen, with 39% of respondents approving of his performance and 53% disapproving. This suggests that both major party leaders are facing significant challenges in terms of public support, and that the leadership of both parties may be contested in the coming weeks.
Social Cohesion and Racism
The poll also found that Australians believe there is tension between people of different races and nationalities, with 70% of respondents saying they think this is the case. Only 38% of respondents believed that Australia was less racist than it had been in the past, a four-point drop from when this question was last asked in an Essential poll in September 2025. The poll also found that 35% of respondents said a member of their family had experienced racism, up by five points since September, while 33% said they had personally experienced racism, also up five points since September. These findings suggest that racism and social cohesion remain significant issues in Australian society, and that the government and opposition parties will need to address these issues in the coming weeks and months.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the latest Guardian Essential poll has revealed a significant shift in public opinion, with One Nation’s primary vote surging to a record-high 22%. The Labor government’s response to the Bondi beach terror attack has received widespread public support, but the prime minister’s personal approval rating continues to fall. The Liberal-National Coalition is facing significant leadership challenges, with Sussan Ley’s leadership under threat and a potential spill as early as next week. Australians believe there is tension between people of different races and nationalities, and that racism remains a significant issue in Australian society. These findings will have significant implications for the upcoming election and the future of Australian politics.