Key Takeaways
- The Liberal Party retained the Nepean seat but saw its primary vote drop from 48 % (2022) to about 38 %, a roughly 10 % loss that aligns with One Nation’s gains.
- One Nation secured roughly 24 % of the primary vote without major spending, signalling a durable appeal to conservative and disaffected voters.
- Labor’s progressive bloc (Greens, Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis) fell from 43 % in 2022 to 33.5 %, with much of the loss flowing to One Nation, especially in blue‑collar booths.
- Preference flows will be decisive: Hutchison voters are unlikely to favour One Nation, while One Nation supporters are being directed to preference the Coalition, giving the Liberals a potential advantage if they negotiate a preference deal.
- Both major parties must now factor One Nation into their November strategy—whether through preference negotiations, targeted messaging, or addressing the underlying voter discontent that fuels the minor party’s rise.
Introduction
The Nepean state byelection held on Saturday delivered a Liberal win but also illuminated a shifting political landscape in Victoria. With One Nation capturing nearly a quarter of the primary vote, both Labor and the Coalition are being forced to reckon with a new electoral force that could shape the outcome of the November 28 state election. The result offers early lessons about voter dissatisfaction, preference dynamics, and the strategic calculations each major party must make moving forward.
Liberal Primary Vote Decline
Although the Liberal candidate, Anthony Marsh, ultimately secured the seat, his primary vote fell sharply from the retiring Sam Groth’s 48 % in 2022 to approximately 38 % this byelection—a decline of about 10 percentage points. This reduction mirrors findings from the Resolve Political Monitor in February, which noted that a 10 % uplift in One Nation’s vote tended to come at the expense of the Coalition. For an opposition hoping to capitalize on twelve years of Labor governance, such a erosion of its base is a worrying sign that traditional Liberal supporters are drifting toward the minor party.
One Nation’s Surge and Funding Prospects
One Nation’s candidate, Darren Hercus, garnered roughly 24 % of the primary vote despite the Liberals outspending him on attack advertisements and mail‑outs. Notably, this strong showing occurred without significant financial input from Pauline Hanson’s national organization. Given billionaire Gina Rinehart’s known backing of Hanson, analysts anticipate that One Nation will have ample resources to contest competitive seats in the November election, potentially matching or exceeding the major parties’ campaign budgets in key battlegrounds.
Role of Opposition Leader Jess Wilson
Liberal insiders credited Opposition Leader Jess Wilson’s relentless on‑the‑ground presence as a crucial asset in retaining Nepean. Wilson was reported to have visited the electorate almost daily during the campaign, helping to shore up Liberal support and counteract One Nation’s momentum. However, such intensive personal campaigning is unlikely to be replicable statewide in November, where the Liberal leader will need to allocate her time across many constituencies, potentially weakening the party’s ability to replicate this localized advantage.
Preference Dynamics and Hutchison Voters
The byelection highlighted an unusual preference landscape: independent candidate Tracee Hutchison captured 21.3 % of the vote, while One Nation’s Hercus secured about 24 %. Observers noted that very few Hutchison voters were likely to preference One Nation above the Liberals, and One Nation supporters were being urged to preference the Coalition. This dynamic placed Liberal candidate Marsh in a advantageous “middle” position, allowing him to harvest a significant share of preferences from both camps. The outcome underscores that preference negotiations could be decisive in November, especially if One Nation continues to attract a substantial protest vote.
Labor’s Progressive Vote Losses
In 2022, Labor, the Greens, and Animal Justice collectively won 43 % of the primary vote in Nepean. This time, the combined progressive vote (Hutchison, Greens, Legalise Cannabis) fell to 33.5 %, a decline of roughly ten points. Much of this loss appears to have shifted directly to One Nation, indicating that disaffected progressive voters are willing to explore alternatives outside the traditional left‑leaning spectrum. For Labor, this signals a vulnerability in its base that could be exacerbated if economic or social grievances persist.
Blue‑collar Shift to One Nation
Analysis of booth‑level data revealed that One Nation’s support was strongest in traditionally Labor‑leaning, blue‑collar areas such as Dromana and Rosebud, where ute ownership is high. In those localities, One Nation’s vote reached approximately 28 %. Because Labor did not contest the byelection, these voters were effectively given a “free pass” to explore the minor party without the usual partisan cues. While some may return to Labor in November, the result serves as a warning that a segment of the working‑class electorate is receptive to populist, anti‑establishment messaging.
Attack Messaging and Premier Allan’s Unpopularity
Liberal campaign material leaned heavily on the low favorability rating of Premier Jacinta Allan—reportedly in the –30s—arguing that a vote for One Nation would help keep her in power. Additional leaflets attempted to link independent Hutchison to the premier, suggesting that a vote for her indirectly sustained Labor. Despite this focus, the messaging appeared to have limited impact in the byelection, possibly because voters perceived the contest as inconsequential to government formation. However, analysts expect that the same lines will resonate more strongly in November when the stakes are higher and voters are more attentive to the potential consequences of their choices.
Strategic Implications for the November State Election
The Nepean byelection offers three clear takeaways for both major parties as they prepare for the state election. First, the Liberals may need to formalize a preference arrangement with One Nation to secure victory in marginal seats, despite public denials of any such deal. Second, Labor must address the erosion of its progressive and blue‑collar support, possibly by refining its policy platform and outreach to disaffected voters. Third, both parties should recognize that One Nation’s rise is not a fleeting protest; with solid funding prospects and a growing base of “One Nation‑curious” conservatives, the minor party is poised to be a kingmaker in November. Preparing for this reality—through strategic preference negotiations, targeted messaging, and substantive policy responses—will be essential for anyone hoping to form government after the election.