Key Takeaways
- One Nation’s primary‑vote support in Victoria has steadied at about 21 %, positioning the party as a durable “third force” ahead of the November state election.
- A strong majority of Victorians—70 % overall and 75 % in marginal seats—back a royal commission into alleged corruption and organised crime on government‑funded “Big Build” projects.
- Labor’s primary vote has slipped to 27 %, while the Coalition sits at 29 %; both changes fall within the poll’s margin of error.
- Focus‑group insights reveal that One Nation voters are largely frustrated with Labor and skeptical of the Coalition’s ability to govern, viewing their vote as either a tactical move to oust Labor or a “drain the swamp” protest against both major parties.
- Preference flows from One Nation favour the Coalition (71 % of One Nation supporters would direct preferences to the Liberals/Nationals), meaning roughly three out of every ten One Nation votes could ultimately benefit Labor.
- Liberal leader Jess Wilson enjoys a high personal likeability rating (+18) and is nominated as preferred premier by 39 % of respondents, yet her popularity has not translated into a rebound in Coalition primary support, which remains hampered by internal feuding.
- Within Labor, Premier Jacinta Allan remains the preferred leader over internal rivals, but a significant 59 % of voters are undecided or dislike all listed options, underscoring leadership uncertainty.
- To attain government, the Coalition needs a net gain of 16 lower‑house seats; One Nation’s entrenched third‑party status makes that target considerably harder to reach.
Support for One Nation Stabilizes
The latest Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for The Age in March and April 2026, shows that One Nation’s primary‑vote share has settled at 21 %. This figure represents a stabilization after the party’s meteoric rise earlier in the year and confirms its status as a reliable “third force” in Victorian politics. The consistency of support—hovering between 19‑23 % across the three monthly tracking surveys from February to April—indicates that One Nation has moved beyond a fleeting protest vote to a more entrenched segment of the electorate.
Royal Commission Public Support
A striking 70 % of all respondents, and 75 % of those in marginal seats, voiced support for establishing a royal commission to investigate allegations of corruption and organised crime linked to government‑funded “Big Build” construction projects. Notably, 66 % of Labor voters also endorsed the inquiry, suggesting cross‑party concern over the issue. The CFMEU’s independent investigator, Geoffrey Watson, has estimated that taxpayer losses from such corruption could reach $15 billion, a figure that appears to be resonating with the public and intensifying pressure on the Andrews government to act.
Major Parties’ Primary Vote Shifts
Labor’s primary vote has edged down one point to 27 %, while the Coalition has softened to 29 % since the February poll. Both shifts fall within the survey’s margin of error, implying that the major parties’ standings remain fluid but relatively close. The modest decline for Labor coincides with lingering dissatisfaction over Premier Jacinta Allan’s leadership, whereas the Coalition’s stagnation reflects internal turbulence that has offset any potential gains from new leader Jess Wilson’s arrival.
Motivations Behind One Nation Support
Focus‑group discussions conducted by Resolve founder Jim Reed last month illuminated why voters are gravitating toward One Nation. Participants expressed frustration with Labor and a dislike of Premier Allan, yet they also doubted the Coalition’s capacity to win or govern effectively. For many, backing One Nation is a tactical decision aimed at removing Labor from power. For others, it embodies a “drain the swamp” mentality inspired by Trump‑style populism, seeking to disrupt the entrenched two‑party system altogether. In either case, the vote is primarily a signal of desire for change rather than an endorsement of One Nation’s policy platform.
Methodology of Resolve Political Monitor
Unlike conventional polls that capture a single moment in time, the Resolve Political Monitor averages results from two surveys conducted a month apart, thereby gauging the broader political mood over a longer period. The March‑April 2026 release marks the first full survey in which One Nation was broken out from the “others” category, allowing a clearer view of its distinct support base. The dual‑wave approach helps smooth out short‑term fluctuations and provides a more stable measure of party strength, which is especially valuable when assessing the durability of emerging parties like One Nation.
Impact on Coalition’s Path to Government
The entrenchment of One Nation as a third force complicates the Coalition’s ambition to end 12 years of Labor rule. To form government, the Liberal‑National alliance must secure a net gain of 16 lower‑house seats at the November 28 election. One Nation’s consistent capture of roughly one‑fifth to one‑quarter of the primary vote siphons support away from the Coalition, particularly in outer‑suburban and regional seats where the Liberals traditionally compete. As a result, the Coalition’s route to victory becomes steeper, and One Nation’s presence may inadvertently help sustain Labor’s hold on power by splitting the anti‑Labor vote.
Preference Flows from One Nation Voters
When asked how they would direct their preferences, 71 % of One Nation supporters indicated they would flow their votes to the Coalition, while the remainder would preference Labor or remain uncommitted. This translates to roughly three out of every ten One Nation votes ultimately benefiting Labor, given the preferential voting system. Consequently, while One Nation’s direct vote share hurts the Coalition’s primary tally, its preference behavior could partially offset that damage by boosting Labor’s final count in closely contested seats.
Liberal Leadership Preferences and Popularity
Despite internal party strife, Liberal leader Jess Wilson enjoys a likeability rating of plus 18, the highest among Victorian Liberal leaders in the five‑year span of Resolve polling. 39 % of respondents nominated Wilson as their preferred premier, outpacing any other Liberal figure. However, her personal popularity has not yet translated into a rebound in Coalition primary support, which has remained stuck near 29 % since her leadership transition from Brad Battin in November 2025. The data suggest that while voters like Wilson as a person, they remain unconvinced that the Liberal Party under her leadership can deliver effective governance or overcome its internal divisions.
Labor Leadership Preferences and Internal Dynamics
Within the Labor camp, Premier Jacinta Allan remains the favored leader over her potential challengers. When asked who they would prefer as Labor leader in a spill scenario, 18 % chose Allan, 13 % backed Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, and 10 % supported Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams. A substantial 59 % of respondents were either undecided or disliked all three options, highlighting a notable leadership vacuum or ambivalence among voters. This uncertainty may undermine Labor’s ability to present a cohesive alternative, even as its primary vote remains modestly ahead of the Coalition’s.
Overall Electoral Outlook
The Resolve Political Monitor paints a picture of a Victorian electorate eager for change yet divided on how to achieve it. One Nation’s stable 21 % support signals a durable protest vote that can sway outcomes in key seats. Strong public appetite for a royal commission into construction‑industry corruption adds another layer of pressure on the incumbent government. Meanwhile, the major parties linger near parity, with Labor slightly ahead but hampered by leadership ambiguity, and the Coalition hampered by internal feuding despite a popular leader. For the Coalition to secure victory, it must not only win over traditional Liberal voters but also neutralize the preference‑flow advantage One Nation offers to Labor—a formidable challenge that will shape the narrative of the November 2026 state election.