Key Takeaways
- Extremely heavy rain has fallen on the far South Coast of New South Wales and in Victoria’s East Gippsland region overnight
- A low-pressure system formed off the NSW South Coast, bringing intense storm activity and flash flooding to the area
- Notable 24-hour rainfall totals include 115.8mm at Brogo Dam and 116mm at The Gorge, just inland from the coast
- Rain is likely to persist along the NSW South Coast into the weekend and for much of the coming week
- Sydney is expected to experience its soggiest weekend of summer to date, with around 20mm of rainfall possible on both Saturday and Sunday
Introduction to the Weather Event
Extremely heavy rain has fallen on the far South Coast of New South Wales and in Victoria’s East Gippsland region overnight, as a low-pressure system formed off the NSW South Coast. The low formed after a day of huge totals from thunderstorms in numerous eastern Vic and southeastern NSW locations. This intense weather event has brought significant rainfall to the area, with some locations experiencing a one in 1000 years rainfall event.
Impact of the Storms
Thursday’s extreme weather mix also included a relatively localized outbreak of intense storm activity along parts of Victoria’s Great Ocean Road, with cars swept away from flash flooding. At Mt Cowley, about 10km west of Lorne, 175mm fell in six hours – a one in 1000 years rainfall event for that area. The heavy rainfall caused significant disruptions, with flash flooding and damaging winds reported in several areas. The storms also brought strong winds, with gale warnings and hazardous surf warnings issued for the South Coast and coastal areas further north and south.
Rainfall Totals
Heavy rainfall was recorded in numerous locations further east. To 9am Friday, notable 24-hour rainfall totals included 115.8mm at Brogo Dam, which included 67mm in just one hour, and 110mm at Merimbula, which was a record daily high for January at the current weather station which has been collecting data since 1998. In East Gippsland, 116mm was recorded at The Gorge, just inland from the coast and just south of the NSW border, and 106mm at Mt Cann Fire Tower, which included 53.4mm in just half an hour during the afternoon. These rainfall totals are significant, and the area can expect more rain in the coming days.
Forecast and Expected Rainfall
The low over the South Coast is relatively slow-moving, so the southern half of the NSW coastline can expect the heaviest rain and showers. Rain is likely to persist along the NSW South Coast into the weekend and for much of the coming week. Sydney looks set for its soggiest weekend of summer to date, with around 20mm of rainfall possible on both Saturday and Sunday. Merimbula can expect a continuation of wet weather, with rainfall totals between about 10mm and 40mm for each of the next four days from today onwards. The predicted rainfall totals in NSW up until Thursday, January 22, 2026, according to the ECMWF model, show that the southern half of the coastline will experience the heaviest rain.
Conclusion and Warning
This wet spell will be appreciated by most locals, as January had been virtually bone dry, while most of the South Coast had experienced a run of four months with significant rainfall deficiencies. However, this is also a dangerous weather system, and numerous warnings are in place for the South Coast and coastal areas further north and south, including gale warnings, hazardous surf warnings, and severe weather warnings for heavy rainfall and damaging winds. It is essential to check the Weatherzone warnings page for the latest information and to stay safe during this extreme weather event. The community is advised to take necessary precautions and follow the instructions of local authorities to minimize the risk of damage and injury.