Key Takeaways
- The Liberal and National parties have agreed to place One Nation’s David Farley ahead of independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe on their how‑to‑vote cards for the Farrer byelection.
- Milthorpe, backed by the Climate 200 fundraising network but distancing herself from the “teal” independent brand, is one of the two front‑runners alongside Farley.
- Nationals leader Matt Canavan justified the preference by saying Milthorpe is supported by groups advocating net‑zero policies and water buybacks, which he frames as contrary to regional interests.
- Milthorpe criticised the Coalition’s decision, arguing that preferencing a party aiming to weaken the Liberals makes little strategic sense.
- The byelection was triggered by the retirement of long‑serving MP Sussan Ley after she lost the Liberal leadership contest to Angus Taylor.
- One Nation’s polling has eased slightly, prompting speculation that its recent surge may have peaked, yet the Coalition continues to attack the party over controversial hires.
- Canavan emphasized that regaining public trust, not short‑term electoral tricks, is the Coalition’s longer‑term goal.
Overview of the Farrer byelection and main contenders
The Farrer byelection, scheduled for 9 May, has become a focal point for both major parties and minor players after the retirement of incumbent Liberal MP Sussan Ley. Two candidates have emerged as the clear front‑runners: independent Michelle Milthorpe and One Nation’s David Farley. Milthorpe, who previously cut Ley’s margin to 6.2 % at the 2025 federal election, is campaigning on a platform that blends local issues with a broader climate‑action narrative, though she stresses she is not aligned with the city‑based “teal” independent movement. Farley, representing Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, seeks to capitalize on growing dissatisfaction with major‑party politics in rural New South Wales. The presence of these two candidates, along with Liberal Nadine Butkowski and National Brad Robertson, creates a four‑cornered contest where preference flows could determine the winner.
Coalition preference details and how-to-vote cards
Despite launching a series of negative advertisements targeting One Nation, the Liberal and National parties have instructed their supporters to rank Farley ahead of Milthorpe on their respective how‑to‑vote cards. A mock how‑to‑vote card published on Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski’s website shows the Liberals placing their own Nationals counterpart, Brad Robertson, in second position, followed by Farley in fourth, and Milthorpe in ninth. The Greens’ Richard Hendrie is relegated to twelfth and last on the Liberal ticket. The Nationals have mirrored this arrangement, preferencing the Liberals before urging voters to number Farley ahead of Milthorpe. This strategic ordering suggests the Coalition views One Nation as a more palatable alternative to an independent who is perceived as leaning toward progressive climate policies.
Statements from Nationals leader Matt Canavan
Nationals leader Matt Canavan defended the preference decision in a Facebook post, stating that the party would place One Nation ahead of the “teal-backed candidate because she is backed by people that support net zero and water buybacks.” Canavan framed Milthorpe’s support base as being aligned with urban environmental agendas that, in his view, do not reflect the priorities of regional voters in Farrer. He argued that the preference was not an endorsement of One Nation’s broader platform but a tactical move to prevent a candidate perceived as advancing policies detrimental to agricultural and water‑resource interests from gaining traction. The comment highlights the Coalition’s attempt to frame the preference as a pragmatic, issue‑based calculation rather than an ideological alliance.
Michelle Milthorpe’s background and campaign stance
Milthorpe entered the race after a strong showing at the 2025 election, where she reduced Sussan Ley’s previously comfortable margin to just 6.2 %. Her campaign has been bolstered by the Climate 200 fundraising vehicle, which provides financial support to independents advocating for climate action and governmental transparency. Despite this backing, Milthorpe has repeatedly distanced herself from the “teal” label associated with a cohort of city‑based independents who champion aggressive climate policies. Instead, she emphasizes local concerns such as water security, agricultural sustainability, and regional infrastructure, aiming to present herself as a pragmatic representative attuned to the specific needs of Farrer’s electorate.
Criticism from Milthorpe on Coalition’s preference strategy
Speaking to Guardian Australia before the Liberal how‑to‑vote card was released, Milthorpe expressed bewilderment at the Coalition’s decision to preference One Nation ahead of her. “I find it fascinating that the Liberal party would choose to preference a party that seemingly wants to take them out,” she remarked, suggesting that such a move could undermine the Liberals’ long‑term electoral viability. She urged the Coalition to consider the broader implications of bolstering a minor party that seeks to erode major‑party support, warning that short‑term tactical gains might precipitate longer‑term losses in voter trust and party cohesion. Her comments underscore the tension between immediate electoral calculus and strategic party health.
Background on the triggering event and Sussan Ley’s retirement
The byelection was necessitated by the retirement of Sussan Ley, who announced her departure from federal parliament after losing the Liberal party leadership spill to Angus Taylor in February 2025. Ley had represented Farrer since 2001, building a considerable personal vote and a reputation for advocating on regional water and infrastructure matters. Her exit created a vacancy that attracted a diverse field of candidates, setting the stage for a high‑stakes contest that could signal shifts in voter sentiment ahead of the next federal election. Ley’s departure also removed a moderate Liberal voice, potentially opening space for more polarizing figures from both the major parties and the crossbench.
One Nation’s recent polling trends and Coalition attacks
In the weeks preceding the byelection, One Nation’s support has shown a slight decline according to the latest Newspoll and Resolve polls, prompting speculation that the party’s recent surge may have peaked. Nevertheless, the Coalition has intensified its attacks on One Nation, drawing particular attention to the party’s decision to re‑hire Sean Black, a convicted rapist, as a campaign manager. Pauline Hanson stated she sacked Black after the Coalition’s renewed scrutiny, describing the episode as “gutter politics.” These controversies have been used by Liberal and National figures to question One Nation’s credibility while simultaneously leveraging the party’s preference to steer votes away from Milthorpe.
Broader political implications and Canavan’s comments on trust rebuilding
Beyond the immediate preference arrangement, Nationals leader Matt Canavan used the byelection as a touchstone for a wider narrative about restoring public confidence in the major parties. He acknowledged that modest fluctuations in polling do not constitute a breakthrough, emphasizing that “there’s no magic bullet” and that the Coalition must focus on rebuilding trust lost during recent years of perceived waywardness. Canavan’s remarks suggest that while tactical preferencing may influence the outcome of Farrer, the Coalition’s longer‑term strategy hinges on demonstrating consistency, accountability, and a reconnection with the concerns of everyday Australians—a message that could reverberate well beyond this single byelection.