Key Takeaways
- Labor’s Luke Richmond is projected to win the Stafford by‑election despite a 4.1 % swing against the party after preferences.
- The LNP would need an unusually strong performance from outstanding postal votes to overturn the result, which is deemed unlikely.
- Premier Steven Miles defended his leadership, saying the swing does not reflect his personal performance and that he retains caucus support.
- LNP Premier David Crisafulli celebrated the swing toward his party but acknowledged the result would likely fall “agonisingly short” of victory.
- Stafford has been a Labor stronghold since 2001, only breaking for the LNP in the 2012 landslide, making the current outcome notable.
- The by‑election was triggered by the death of former MP Jimmy Sullivan, a former Labor member expelled in May 2025.
- Miles cited the Greens’ open‑ticket decision and One Nation’s absence as factors that “stacked against” Labor during the short campaign.
- Richmond, a former Labor assistant secretary, emphasized the difficulty of contesting an established seat in a four‑week window but expressed personal satisfaction with the effort.
- Hammond, a former Brisbane city councillor, ran for the LNP for a second time, highlighting the party’s continued focus on the seat.
- Postal ballots remain outstanding; while they could shift the margin, historical trends suggest they will not overturn the projected Labor win.
- The result underscores Labor’s resilience in suburban Brisbane, even amid internal party debates and external electoral pressures.
- Both major parties will likely use the Stafford outcome to calibrate strategies for the upcoming state general election.
- The contest illustrates how candidate background, campaign length, and minor‑party decisions can interact to shape swing patterns in tightly contested electorates.
Background of the By‑election
The Stafford by‑election was called after the sudden death of former MP Jimmy Sullivan, who was discovered deceased at his home in April 2025. Sullivan had originally been elected as a Labor representative but was expelled from the party in May 2025 following internal disciplinary actions. His father, Terry Sullivan, previously held the seat, giving the electorate a notable political lineage. The vacancy prompted a contest that would test Labor’s durability in a traditionally safe suburb, while also offering the LNP an opportunity to chip away at Labor’s northern Brisbane stronghold.
Current Vote Count and Swing
As of the close of counting on Saturday night, Labor had experienced a 4.1 % swing against it after the distribution of preferences. Although the primary vote showed a modest shift toward the LNP, the majority of ballots counted so far favored Labor’s candidate, Luke Richmond. Outstanding postal votes remain to be tallied, but analysts agree that for the LNP to overturn the deficit, those votes would need to break overwhelmingly in its favour—a scenario regarded as highly improbable given historical postal‑vote behavior in the area.
Implications for Luke Richmond
If the current trend holds, Luke Richmond, formerly the assistant secretary of Queensland Labor, is poised to become the next member for Stafford. Richmond’s background in party organization and his recent campaigning effort have positioned him as a fresh face capable of sustaining Labor’s hold on the electorate. His projected entry into parliament would mark a continuation of the party’s representation in the seat, reinforcing Labor’s presence in Brisbane’s northern suburbs despite the adverse swing.
Steven Miles’ Leadership Response
Premier Steven Miles addressed Labor supporters alongside Richmond, commenting that the observed swing “isn’t a reflection of my leadership.” When questioned about whether a different leader might improve the party’s fortunes, Miles deflected the decision to the caucus, affirming that he presently enjoys their backing. He expressed pride in leading the party and emphasized that external factors, rather than personal shortcomings, contributed to the electoral outcome.
David Crisafulli’s LNP Perspective
LNP Premier David Crisafulli appeared with Stafford candidate Fiona Hammond, celebrating the swing toward his party as a positive sign. Nevertheless, he cautioned that the result would likely leave the LNP “agonisingly short” of victory, acknowledging the steep climb required to capture the seat. His remarks reflected both optimism about incremental gains and realism about the entrenched Labor advantage in Stafford.
Historical Voting Pattern in Stafford
Since the 2001 state election, Stafford has been a Labor stronghold, with the party winning every general election except the 2012 LNP landslide. This long‑term trend underscores the difficulty faced by any challenger seeking to unseat Labor in the suburb. The current by‑election, therefore, represents a notable test of whether recent shifts in voter sentiment could begin to erode that historic dominance, even if the ultimate outcome remains unchanged.
Candidate Profiles: Luke Richmond and Fiona Hammond
Luke Richmond brings a background in party administration and campaign strategy, having served as Labor’s assistant secretary before contesting the seat. He described the race as daunting, given the short four‑week window and the presence of well‑established opponents, yet he found personal fulfillment in the effort. Fiona Hammond, a former Brisbane city councillor, is running for the LNP for a second time, seeking to capitalize on her local government experience and name recognition to sway undecided voters.
Campaign Challenges Highlighted by Miles
During his address at Labor’s election event, Steven Miles pointed to two specific factors that he believes “stacked against” Labor: the Greens’ decision to run an open‑ticket campaign, which potentially divided progressive votes, and One Nation’s choice not to field a candidate, which altered the usual preference flows. Miles argued that these dynamics, combined with the compressed campaign timetable, created an unfavorable environment for Labor despite its traditional strengths.
Richmond’s Personal Reflection
Luke Richmond told his supporters that he anticipated a difficult contest, acknowledging the challenge of facing seasoned opponents within a limited timeframe. He characterized the intense four‑week schedule as “one of the great joys of my life,” indicating that, regardless of the electoral result, he valued the experience of engaging directly with voters and contributing to the democratic process.
Outstanding Postal Votes and Their Potential Impact
While the majority of votes have been counted, a batch of postal ballots remains pending. Historically, postal votes in Stafford have leaned slightly toward the LNP, but the margin required to overturn the current Labor lead would be substantial. Analysts suggest that even if the postal votes favor the LNP, they are unlikely to shift the overall outcome sufficiently to change the projected winner, reinforcing the expectation that Richmond will prevail.
Broader Electoral Significance
The Stafford by‑election serves as a bellwether for both major parties as they prepare for the forthcoming state general election. Labor’s ability to retain the seat, albeit with a reduced margin, signals resilience in suburban Brisbane amid internal debates and external pressures. Conversely, the LNP’s demonstrated swing, though insufficient for victory, highlights growth potential that the party may seek to amplify in future campaigns. The contest also illustrates how minor‑party decisions and candidate backgrounds can interact to shape voter behavior in closely fought electorates.
Conclusion
In summary, the Stafford by‑election is poised to return Luke Richmond to parliament for Labor, notwithstanding a measurable swing toward the LNP. The result reflects a blend of historical voter loyalty, campaign‑specific obstacles, and the lingering influence of postal votes. Both leaders have framed the outcome in ways that suit their respective narratives—Miles defending his leadership and Crisafulli celebrating incremental gains—while the electorate’s response will undoubtedly inform strategies for the upcoming statewide poll. The race underscores the complexity of suburban Queensland politics, where long‑standing party loyalties can be tested, yet not easily overturned, by short‑term campaign dynamics and minor‑party maneuvers.