Key Takeaways
- Labor’s Luke Richmond is set to win the Stafford by‑election, defeating LNP candidate Fiona Hammond.
- The swing against Labor was 4.1 % after preferences, an unusual result for a governing party in a by‑election.
- Premier David Crisafulli called the outcome “humbling” but praised his party’s effort and claimed the swing exceeded expectations.
- Opposition Leader Steven Miles framed the result as a sign of growing Labor momentum ahead of the 2028 state election.
- Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie criticised Miles’s leadership, calling the result “disastrous” for Labor and warning of an imminent spill motion.
- Stafford has been a Labor stronghold, with the party winning nine of the ten elections since the seat’s creation in 2001.
- The by‑election was triggered by the death of former MP Jimmy Sullivan, whose passing reshaped the contest’s dynamics.
- Both major parties interpreted the swing differently, highlighting contrasting narratives about voter sentiment and party direction.
- The result sets the stage for heightened scrutiny of opposition leadership and will influence strategy in the upcoming 2028 election.
Overview of the Stafford By‑Election Result
The Liberal National Party (LNP) has conceded that it fell short of victory in the Stafford by‑election, a contest for the Queensland state electorate covering Brisbane’s northern suburbs. Counting concluded on Saturday night, showing Labor’s candidate, Luke Richmond, ahead of the LNP’s Fiona Hammond. Although the final tally is still being processed, the LNP leadership acknowledged that they would not secure the seat, marking a notable setback for the incumbent government in a traditionally Labor‑held area.
Candidates and Campaign Context
Luke Richmond, a former state assistant secretary for the Queensland Labor Party, ran as the Labor nominee, while Fiona Hammond, a former Brisbane city councillor, represented the LNP. Richmond’s victory would mark his first entry into parliament, whereas Hammond sought to reclaim the seat after a previous unsuccessful bid. The campaign ran over four weeks, with both parties investing significant resources in door‑to‑door canvassing, advertising, and community events aimed at swaying undecided voters in the suburb.
Reaction from Opposition Leader Steven Miles
In a statement released overnight, Opposition Leader Steven Miles interpreted the outcome as a clear message to the LNP. He declared, “the people of Stafford have sent the LNP a message,” and asserted that “the Queensland Labor momentum is building.” Miles pointed to the grassroots support observed during the campaign as evidence that Labor’s appeal is expanding, and he framed the result as a prelude to the broader political contest expected in the 2028 state election.
Premier David Crisafulli’s Response
Premier David Crisafulli addressed the result on Sunday morning, saying he was “humbled by the results” despite the LNP not winning the seat. He emphasized pride in his party’s effort, noting that “the votes will continue to be counted, we will fall short, but I’m really proud of the effort.” Crisafulli also thanked the electors of Stafford for “choosing hope over fear” and commended Hammond for her hard work during the campaign, claiming that the swing toward the LNP “certainly exceeded our expectations.”
Trigger for the By‑Election
The by‑election was necessitated by the sudden death of former MP Jimmy Sullivan, who was found deceased in his home last month. Sullivan’s passing created a vacancy in the Stafford seat, prompting the contest that would determine his successor. His death added an emotional dimension to the race, with both parties invoking his legacy and service to the community as part of their messaging to voters.
Swing Statistics and Their Significance
After preferences were distributed, a 4.1 % swing against Labor was recorded—a figure that stands out because governing parties rarely experience a positive swing in by‑elections. Crisafulli highlighted this as an atypical development, suggesting that voter sentiment in Stafford may be shifting in ways not seen in recent electoral history. The magnitude of the swing prompted discussion about whether local issues, candidate appeal, or broader state‑wide trends drove the outcome.
Critique from Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie
Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie offered a starkly different assessment, labeling the result “disastrous” for Labor and accusing Opposition Leader Steven Miles of attempting to “rewrite history.” Bleijie argued that the swing to an incumbent government was unprecedented in the last century, stating, “This was a swing to an incumbent government that we’ve not seen the likes of for 100 years.” He warned that Richmond’s first parliamentary vote would likely be in favor of a Labor Party spill motion, questioning Miles’s leadership competence and suggesting he is “out of depth” and unable to read the electorate’s mood.
Historical Labor Dominance in Stafford
Stafford has been a Labor stronghold since its creation in 2001, with the party winning the seat in nine of the ten elections held there. This historical backdrop makes the LNP’s performance in the by‑election noteworthy, as it indicates a potential erosion of Labor’s traditional advantage. The party’s long‑standing success has been rooted in its connection to suburban voters, union support, and policy platforms that resonate with the area’s demographic profile.
Implications for Future Politics and Leadership
The Stafford result is poised to influence both parties’ strategies heading into the 2028 state election. For Labor, the win reinforces confidence in its suburban appeal and provides a platform to attack the LNP’s governance record. For the LNP, the outcome raises internal questions about campaign effectiveness, candidate selection, and messaging in seats where Labor has historically prevailed. Meanwhile, the criticism leveled at Steven Miles by senior LNP figures underscores growing scrutiny of opposition leadership, suggesting that the coming months may see intensified debate over who is best positioned to challenge the government and whether a leadership spill could reshape the opposition’s direction.