Key Takeaways:
- Dire bushfire conditions are threatening south-eastern states in Australia, with catastrophic and extreme fire danger ratings in place throughout Victoria.
- The entire state of Victoria is under a total fire ban, with temperatures expected to reach 43C in Melbourne and up to 45C in some suburbs.
- Fires are already burning in several states, including out-of-control bushfires at Longwood and Walwa in Victoria.
- The prime minister has urged people to listen to advice from authorities and prepare for the worst, with heatwave warnings in place for all states and territories except Queensland.
- A tropical low is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone in Queensland, with a warning zone stretching from Port Douglas to Tully.
Introduction to the Crisis
Dire bushfire conditions are threatening south-eastern states in Australia, with unrelenting heat bearing down on large parts of the country. Victorians are preparing for catastrophic conditions not seen since the 2019-20 bushfire season. Melbourne’s maximum temperature is forecast to reach 43C, with some suburbs expected to reach up to 45C. The city was already 38.7C at midday and reached 40C by 1pm. The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, met with officials in Canberra for a briefing on the extreme conditions, describing them as "difficult times" for the country.
The Situation in Victoria
Catastrophic and extreme fire danger ratings are in place throughout Victoria, with the entire state under a total fire ban. The central district, which includes Melbourne and Geelong, is approaching catastrophic with a fire danger rating of 99. Fires are expected to be "unpredictable, uncontrollable and fast-moving", according to Victoria’s emergency management commissioner, Tim Wiebusch. The combination of extreme heat, damaging winds, and the risk of dry lightning has created a perfect storm of conditions that are ripe for bushfires. Firefighters are battling blazes in several parts of the state, including out-of-control bushfires at Longwood and Walwa.
The Broader Impact
The extreme conditions are not limited to Victoria, with heatwave warnings in place for all states and territories except Queensland. South Australia and the New South Wales Riverina are also expected to experience extreme conditions, with temperatures forecast to reach 44C in some areas. The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast daytime temperatures 12-16C above average across much of south-eastern Australia. Sydney can expect the worst of the heatwave on Saturday, with temperatures forecast to surpass 40C. The extreme heat has already led to several records being broken, with many places recording their hottest January temperature on record.
The Human Impact
The heatwave has had a significant impact on people’s lives, with many forced to take precautions to stay cool and safe. The Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan, has described the conditions as "the most dangerous day we have had in years". People are being urged to stay indoors, avoid traveling, and to listen to advice from authorities. The heatwave has also had a significant impact on infrastructure, with several regional train and coach services cancelled and a number of post offices in catastrophic risk zones expected to close. The chief officer of the CFA, Jason Heffernan, has warned that conditions on Friday will be "dire", with potential wind gusts of up to 100km/h.
The Climate Connection
The extreme heat and fire conditions are unusual for a La Niña summer, according to Andrew Watkins, a climate expert at Monash University. Normally, La Niña conditions would lead to increased rainfall and flooding, but two factors have played a big role in 2025/26, including the strongest stratospheric warming above Antarctica since 2019, and climate change. The climate crisis has increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and bushfires. Australia experienced its fourth-warmest year on record in 2025, with average temperatures up 1.23C nationally, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
The Tropical Cyclone Threat
A tropical low is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone in Queensland, with a warning zone stretching from Port Douglas to Tully. The system is expected to take a sharp turn southwards, heading for Townsville. The tropical low is expected to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to the affected areas, with sustained winds of 65km/h and gusts up to 95km/h. The Queensland government has urged people in the affected areas to take precautions and to follow the advice of authorities.
Conclusion
The dire bushfire conditions and heatwave affecting south-eastern Australia are a serious concern, with catastrophic and extreme fire danger ratings in place throughout Victoria. The prime minister has urged people to listen to advice from authorities and prepare for the worst, with heatwave warnings in place for all states and territories except Queensland. The climate crisis has increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and bushfires, and it is essential that people take precautions to stay cool and safe. The situation is being closely monitored by authorities, and people are urged to stay informed and follow the advice of authorities to minimize the risk of injury or loss of life.