Key Takeaways
- Australia’s winter is expected to be milder than average, with daytime and night‑time temperatures above normal across most of the south.
- Rainfall will likely fall short of typical totals, especially in southern, central and eastern regions, though isolated heavy events remain possible.
- Water storages are already low, with the Murray‑Darling Basin at ~48 % capacity, adding pressure on agriculture and urban supplies.
- Soil moisture shows a split pattern: recent rains boosted moisture in eastern NSW and southern Queensland, while Western Australian soils have dried rapidly.
- Alpine areas can still see snow and cold snaps; snowfall depends on individual fronts rather than a seasonal outlook.
- Climate models point to a developing El Niño during winter, which could further influence rainfall and temperature patterns.
- Elevated bushfire risk is forecast for parts of NSW and Western Australia, driven by dry fuels and, in WA, abundant vegetation from a previous wet season.
Winter Preview: A Milder Season Ahead
Days before winter officially begins, Australians are getting a preview of what’s in store for the next three months – and it might not be the season many were expecting. After a warmer‑than‑usual autumn, the Bureau of Meteorology’s long‑range outlook shows that much of the country is heading for a double dose of milder daytime conditions and warmer‑than‑normal nights. Meanwhile, the southern half of the continent is on track for a parched winter, with rainfall expected to fall well short of typical totals. The Bureau says rain is still expected this season, but overall amounts will likely be lower than usual.
Temperature Outlook: Above‑Average Warmth Dominates
While the forecast points to a milder winter overall, the Bureau says cold snaps, frosts and snow are still possible. The strongest signals for warmer conditions stretch across much of southern Australia. Victoria, Tasmania, NSW, southern Queensland, South Australia, and broad areas of Western Australia are at increased risk of above‑average daytime and night‑time temperatures. Median maximum forecast temperatures for winter (BoM) illustrate this trend, suggesting that many regions will experience fewer frosts and a reduced likelihood of prolonged cold spells.
Autumn Warmth Sets the Stage
The forecast follows an uncharacteristically warm autumn. Several slow‑moving high‑pressure systems brought unseasonably warm weather to the south‑east, with Hobart reaching 26.9 °C on May 1 – its highest‑ever May temperature on record, dating back to 1882. This anomalous heat has preconditioned the land surface, reducing the amount of cooling that typically occurs as winter approaches and contributing to the projected above‑average temperatures for the season.
Rainfall Deficits Across Large Areas
Rainfall is likely to be below average across large parts of southern, central and eastern Australia. That includes most of NSW and the ACT, much of Victoria, South Australia, southern Queensland and the south‑west of Western Australia. The forecast does not mean those areas will miss out on rain entirely. Winter typically delivers between 100 and 400 mm of rain to many southern coastal regions, with lower totals inland. Chance of exceeding the median rainfall for June to August 2026 (BoM) shows a reduced probability of reaching those norms. The Bureau says rain‑bearing systems are still expected this season, though overall totals are likely to be lower than usual.
Water Storage Systems Under Strain
This dry outlook comes as water systems in the south and west face mounting pressure. Australia’s combined water storages are currently around 65 % full, but many individual reservoirs have fallen below the halfway mark. Notably, storage in the critical Murray‑Darling Basin is at just 48 % capacity – about 9 % lower than this time last year. Low storage levels exacerbate concerns for irrigated agriculture, municipal supplies, and ecosystem health, especially if the anticipated rainfall shortfall materialises.
Soil Moisture: A Tale of Two Regions
Soil moisture also tells two different stories. While late autumn rains boosted root‑zone moisture in eastern NSW and southern Queensland, soils in Western Australia have dried out rapidly. Median minimum forecast temperatures for winter (BoM) indicate that the west will experience cooler nights, but the lack of moisture limits the potential for any cooling benefit. In contrast, the increased moisture in the east may support early‑season crop growth, though the overall warmer trend could accelerate evapotranspiration and offset those gains.
Alpine Snow Still Possible Despite Warmth
While warmer conditions are expected across the board, cold outbreaks can still bring snow. Australia’s alpine regions have already seen flakes this year, with parts of the Victorian and NSW Alps recording their first snowfall in late March. Alpine regions saw their first snowfall in late March, with flakes recorded in parts of the Victorian and NSW Alps (Supplied). Tasmania also experienced snow in elevated areas during early January. The Bureau says snow can occur whenever freezing air combines with enough moisture, and a handful of strong cold fronts can have a major impact on seasonal totals. Because individual weather systems heavily influence snowfall, the Bureau does not issue seasonal snow outlooks.
El Niño on the Horizon
Forecasters are also keeping a close eye on the Pacific Ocean, where climate models indicate El Niño is likely to develop during winter. The El Niño‑Southern Oscillation is currently in a neutral phase, but all major models suggest conditions are trending towards El Niño. The weather system can influence rainfall patterns across northern, central and eastern Australia from winter into early summer, although the Bureau notes no two events are exactly alike. While an El Niño event has not yet been formally declared, sea surface temperatures are already tracking well above average – particularly along the NSW coast and Tasmania, where marine temperatures are sitting up to 4 °C higher than normal.
Increased Bushfire Risk in Selected Areas
The winter bushfire outlook also highlights an elevated fire risk in parts of NSW and Western Australia. The drivers behind the risk vary by state. In NSW, the danger is fuelled by prolonged dry conditions across central and northern regions. Elsewhere, Western Australia’s elevated risk in the north‑west stems from a heavy wet season, which left behind abundant vegetation that is expected to dry out in the coming months. Combined with the forecast warmer temperatures and below‑average rainfall, these factors create conditions conducive to ignition and rapid fire spread, prompting land‑management agencies to prepare for a potentially active fire season despite the calendar winter.