Key Takeaways
- Australia will spend $12–15 billion on drone and counter‑drone systems over the next decade, a $2–5 billion increase from the 2024 National Defence Strategy.
- Flagship programs include the MQ‑28A Ghost Bat (loyal‑wingman aircraft) and the extra‑large autonomous underwater vehicle Ghost Shark.
- Ghost Bat specifications: 11.7 m length, 7.3 m wingspan, up to 1,000 km/h speed, 3,700 km range; unit cost ≈ $12–15 million; total program spend ~ $2.3 billion.
- Ghost Shark is an XLAUV with undisclosed size, intended for ISR and strike missions; $1.7 billion earmarked for a fleet, with total underwater uncrewed spend $4.8–5.8 billion.
- About $2.2–3.1 billion will fund smaller drones and uncrewed surface vessels such as the solar‑wind‑wave powered Bluebottle.
- Experts praise the move but warn that over‑reliance on high‑cost platforms may neglect the mass‑produced, cheap drones proving decisive in Ukraine and the Middle East.
- A balanced force—combining exquisite systems with numerous low‑cost, adaptable drones—is seen as essential for resilience and rapid replenishment.
- Successful integration hinges on developing domestic industrial capacity for quick production and using drones to augment, not replace, crewed assets like F‑35s and submarines.
Strategic Context and Government Push
Defence Minister Richard Marles highlighted that conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have demonstrated how drones can generate significant asymmetric advantages against larger, more expensive platforms. He noted that autonomous systems are now “really central to how war happens.” Consequently, the Australian government is accelerating its drone agenda to “maintain pace” with the rapid evolution of uncrewed warfare, seeking to embed these technologies throughout the defence portfolio.
Funding Increase and Allocation Framework
The Defence Department announced an investment of $12–15 billion for drone and counter‑drone technologies over the next ten years. This represents an increase of $2–5 billion compared with the funding outline in the 2024 National Defence Strategy. Within this envelope, roughly $8 billion is earmarked for uncrewed air systems, $4.8–5.8 billion for autonomous undersea warfare capabilities, and $2.2–3.1 billion for smaller drones and related surface vessels, reflecting a layered investment approach.
Ghost Bat – Australia’s Indigenous Loyal Wingman
The MQ‑28A Ghost Bat, developed by Boeing for the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF), originated as the “Loyal Wingman” concept unveiled in 2019. Named after an Australian native mammal known for hunting in packs, the Ghost Bat is touted as “the first military aircraft designed and built in Australia in over 50 years.” Its airframe measures 11.7 m long, with a 7.3 m wingspan, a height of 2.0 m, a weight of 3,175 kg, a top speed approaching 1,000 km/h, and an operational range exceeding 3,700 km.
Ghost Bat – Cost, Expert Opinions, and Force‑Multiplier Potential
Since 2019 the program has cost the government about $2.3 billion, including a recent $1.4 billion injection to fast‑track six fully operational aircraft. Each unit is estimated to cost between $12 million and $15 million. Defence analyst Marcus Hellyer of Strategic Analysis Australia argues that, while expensive relative to the swarms of cheap drones seen in Ukraine, the Ghost Bat offers a valuable force‑multiplier: “When you look at F‑35s, they cost US$150 million a pop… anything we can do to generate a force‑multiplier effect is a good thing.”
Ghost Bat – Mission Flexibility and Armament
Designed to operate alongside piloted fighters, the Ghost Bat can perform intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), electronic warfare, and strike missions. Its reconfigurable nose allows rapid swapping of payloads tailored to the task. In a recent trial, an AIM‑120 Advanced Medium Range Air‑to‑Air Missile was launched from a Ghost Bat, illustrating its potential to contribute to air‑defence and offensive operations while shielding costly manned jets in contested environments.
Ghost Shark – The Extra‑Large Autonomous Underwater Vehicle
Resembling a mini‑submarine, the Ghost Shark is classified as an extra‑large autonomous underwater vehicle (XLAUV) for the Royal Australian Navy. Development began in Australia in 2022, and while its exact dimensions remain undisclosed, the platform is intended to conduct ISR and strike operations beneath the sea. Defence officials deliberately limit public details about its range, speed, endurance, and armament to prevent adversaries from gauging its capabilities.
Ghost Shark – Expected Capabilities and Strategic Value
Maritime security expert Jennifer Parker of the Australian National University notes that the Ghost Shark’s ISR suite will enable tracking of underwater activity and potentially land‑based targets. Its modular payload bay can accommodate various munitions; Parker suggested it could carry torpedoes, giving it the ability to engage ships and submarines. She views the system as a beneficial complement to crewed submarines, offering “greater reach and persistence in our maritime approaches without the cost and risk of deploying crewed submarines.”
Broader Undersea Uncrewed Investment and Surface Vessels
Beyond the Ghost Shark, the Defence Department plans to allocate $4.8–5.8 billion over the next decade to autonomous undersea warfare capabilities broadly. Complementing these efforts, the navy is acquiring dozens of Bluebottle uncrewed surface vessels. Powered by solar, wind, and wave energy, the Bluebottle can persist at sea for extended periods while conducting surface and sub‑surface surveillance and carrying mission‑specific payloads.
Investment in Smaller Drones and the Need for Scale
Approximately $2.2–3.1 billion is dedicated to smaller drones, reflecting a recognition that low‑cost, numerous uncrewed systems can deliver decisive effects. Experts such as Oleksandra Molloy, a senior lecturer in aviation at UNSW, urge a better balance between exquisite platforms like Ghost Bat and Ghost Shark and the mass‑produced, adaptable drones that have reshaped battles in Ukraine and the Middle East. Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy echoed this, stressing the importance of building domestic industrial capacity for rapid turn‑around and avoiding large inventories of idle drones.
Critical Views: Drones as Complement, Not Replacement
Marcus Hellyer cautioned that the current drone spend is still “small change” compared with major programs such as the AUKUS nuclear‑submarine initiative and the troubled Hunter Class frigates, whose projected costs have ballooned from $45 billion to nearly $65 billion. He argued that traditional platforms remain vital but need to be “surrounded by a constellation of uncrewed autonomous systems” to survive and thrive. Oleksandra Molly added that after four years of war in Ukraine, it is evident that “mass, speed, and adaptability of larger and smaller cheaper drones of various types really make a difference,” urging Australia to prioritize scalable, affordable numbers alongside its high‑end assets.
Outlook: Integrating Drones into Australia’s Future Force
Australia’s defence strategy is evolving to place drones at the core of future operations, blending high‑capability, indigenous systems like the Ghost Bat and Ghost Shark with swarms of cheaper, expendable uncrewed platforms. The challenge lies in achieving the right mix: investing in exquisite technologies that provide unique advantages while simultaneously cultivating the industrial base to field large numbers of low‑cost drones quickly. By aligning spending, doctrine, and production capacity, Australia aims to deter adversaries, enhance the survivability of its crewed forces, and maintain a decisive edge in an era where autonomous systems increasingly dictate the tempo of conflict.