Key Takeaways
- The Aukus agreement is facing significant challenges in delivering nuclear-powered submarines to Australia due to the US shipbuilding industry’s chronic delays and the UK’s structural flaws in its submarine industry.
- The US government’s own numbers indicate that the shipbuilding industry is falling behind schedule and budget, with a forecast of construction backlogs and delays.
- The Aukus agreement is not just about delivering submarines, but also about further enmeshing Australia into US defence strategy, with more US assets and troops stationed in Australia.
- The UK’s nuclear submarine program is facing significant challenges, including delays and a massive backlog in maintenance and refitting.
- The delivery of submarines to Australia is contingent on the US having surplus boats, which is unlikely given the current state of the US fleet.
Introduction to Aukus Agreement
The Aukus agreement, a nuclear-powered submarine deal between Australia, the US, and the UK, is facing significant challenges despite the rhetoric of "full steam ahead". The agreement is not just about delivering submarines, but also about further enmeshing Australia into US defence strategy, with more US assets and troops stationed in Australia. However, the reality is that the US shipbuilding industry is chronically falling behind schedule and budget, and the UK’s submarine industry is facing significant structural flaws.
Challenges in US Shipbuilding Industry
The US government’s own numbers indicate that the shipbuilding industry is falling behind schedule and budget. The latest Government Accountability Office report states that between 2019 and 2023, the US navy forecast it would build 11 Virginia-class submarines, but delivered only four. The report also notes that pouring more money into boat-building won’t help, as the construction backlogs will not be eliminated and future craft will not be built "on time and within budget". The US legislation that underpins Aukus makes it law that Australia can receive no boats unless those are surplus to American requirements, which is unlikely given the current state of the US fleet.
UK’s Nuclear Submarine Program Challenges
The UK’s nuclear submarine program is facing significant challenges, including delays and a massive backlog in maintenance and refitting. The UK’s National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority reported that the plan to build the nuclear reactor cores needed to power the Aukus submarines "appears to be unachievable". The former director of nuclear policy at the Ministry of Defence, Rear Adm Philip Mathias, also stated that Britain was "no longer capable" of running a nuclear submarine program and should pull out of Aukus. The UK’s nuclear program has been grossly mismanaged, exposing the UK and its allies to significant risks.
Implications for Australia
The Aukus agreement has significant implications for Australia, including the potential for delayed or non-delivery of submarines. The agreement is contingent on the US having surplus boats, which is unlikely given the current state of the US fleet. The UK’s nuclear submarine program challenges also raise concerns about the viability of the SSN Aukus submarines, which are the backbone of Australia’s proposed "sovereign nuclear submarine capability". The Australian government needs to carefully consider these challenges and the potential risks and benefits of the Aukus agreement.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Aukus agreement is facing significant challenges, including delays and structural flaws in the US and UK submarine industries. The agreement is not just about delivering submarines, but also about further enmeshing Australia into US defence strategy. The Australian government needs to carefully consider these challenges and the potential risks and benefits of the Aukus agreement. Despite the rhetoric of "full steam ahead", the reality is that the delivery of submarines to Australia is uncertain and contingent on the US having surplus boats. The UK’s nuclear submarine program challenges also raise concerns about the viability of the SSN Aukus submarines. Ultimately, the Aukus agreement requires careful consideration and planning to ensure that it meets the needs of all parties involved.