Key Takeaways
- SpaceX’s stock has retreated from its post‑IPO highs, trading near $110 after an initial 50% surge following the $86 billion offering in mid‑June.
- Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas argues that the current sell‑off prices in “zero or even negative value” for SpaceX’s artificial‑intelligence (AI) businesses, creating an attractive entry point.
- A looming lock‑up expiration next month could allow insiders to sell, fueling expectations that the share price may dip to $100.
- Despite the bearish short‑term sentiment, roughly 80% of analysts covering SpaceX maintain buy‑equivalent ratings, with an average price target of about $232—more than double today’s level.
- Jonas, a longtime Tesla bull who now focuses on AI and humanoid robots, remains one of Wall Street’s most optimistic voices on SpaceX, citing its unique positioning across launch, connectivity, and AI.
Post‑IPO Trading Volatility
SpaceX’s debut on the public market was anything but smooth. After a record‑setting $86 billion offering in mid‑June, the shares jumped nearly 50% in the first three trading sessions, buoyed by enthusiasm for the company’s rocket‑launch dominance and its nascent satellite‑internet constellation. However, the euphoria was short‑lived. By Monday, the stock was hovering around $110 a share—a level that represents a steep retreat from its early‑session peaks. The swing illustrates how quickly investor sentiment can shift when excitement meets the realities of a newly listed, capital‑intensive enterprise.
Morgan Stanley’s View of a “Disconnect”
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas highlighted what he sees as a mismatch between market perception and underlying fundamentals. In a note to clients on Friday, he wrote:
“We believe the current disconnect between increasingly bearish investor sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals creates an attractive entry point in SpaceX shares.”
Jonas contends that, despite the recent price drop, the company’s core operations—launch services, Starlink connectivity, and its emerging AI initiatives—have not deteriorated enough to justify the market’s pessimism. He views the current valuation as a buying opportunity rather than a sign of impending trouble.
Lock‑Up Expiration and the $100‑Share Scenario
A near‑term catalyst weighing on the stock is the impending lock‑up release. Jonas noted that many investors anticipate SpaceX’s price falling further to $100 per share when the first batch of shares becomes tradable next month, allowing insiders and early employees to sell.
“At that level, he argues, investors are pricing in zero or even negative value from its AI segment.”
The lock‑up expiration could increase supply pressure, especially if large holders decide to take profits after the IPO’s initial run‑up. Jonas acknowledges this risk but argues that the market may be overreacting, particularly with respect to the valuation of SpaceX’s artificial‑intelligence assets.
Valuing SpaceX’s AI Business
Central to Jonas’s bullish thesis is his assessment of SpaceX’s AI division, which includes projects like Grok and Cursor. He revealed that more than half of his $300 price target is derived from the AI segment. Yet, he observes that “most investors we speak with significantly discount Grok & Cursor,” often assigning them zero or even negative value. The skepticism stems from three main concerns: high capital‑expenditure requirements relative to the space and connectivity businesses, uncertain economics for AI applications, and the substantial amount of management time devoted to these initiatives. Jonas believes these fears are exaggerated, arguing that the AI unit could become a material contributor to long‑term earnings if it successfully leverages SpaceX’s data‑rich environment and vertical integration.
Macro Headwinds and the Tech‑AI Rotation
SpaceX’s slide is not occurring in a vacuum. The broader market has seen a rotation away from technology firms that have pledged to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on AI and the infrastructure needed to support it. A shaky macroeconomic backdrop—marked by elevated tensions between the United States and Iran, rising oil prices, and inflation worries—has dampened appetite for risk assets. As investors gravitate toward safer havens, even high‑growth names like SpaceX feel the pressure. This sector‑wide sentiment shift helps explain why the stock’s decline appears disproportionate to any fundamental deterioration in the company’s launch or satellite‑internet operations.
Wall Street Consensus Versus Jonas’s Conviction
Despite the short‑term sell‑off, the analyst community remains largely optimistic. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that nearly 80% of analysts covering SpaceX recommend buying the shares, with an average price target of about $232—implying more than a 100% upside from current levels. Major banks that co‑led the offering—Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase—have all issued buy‑equivalent ratings. Jonas, however, stands out as one of the most bullish voices; his $300 target ranks third highest among the 33 analysts tracked by Bloomberg. His confidence is rooted in a track record of bold calls, most notably his longtime bullish stance on Tesla Inc., which often produced outsized moves in that stock.
Adam Jonas: From Tesla Bull to AI Advocate
Jonas’s perspective on SpaceX is informed by his history as a prominent Tesla analyst. He spent years championing the electric‑vehicle maker, earning a reputation for eye‑catching predictions that could move the market. Notably, two years ago he named Tesla a top pick in the U.S. autos sector, a call that preceded significant stock appreciation. Last year he shifted his focus from traditional autos to artificial intelligence and humanoid robots, a move that aligns with his current coverage of SpaceX. In his Friday note, he reiterated his buy‑equivalent rating, stating:
“SpaceX remains uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI,” he said. “We see the current valuation as an attractive entry point.”
This endorsement underscores his belief that the company’s diversified portfolio—spanning rockets, broadband satellites, and AI‑driven analytics—offers multiple growth vectors that the market may be undervaluing today.
Outlook and Investment Implications
The juxtaposition of bearish short‑term pressure and bullish long‑term analyst sentiment creates a nuanced picture for SpaceX investors. On one hand, the imminent lock‑up expiration and broader risk‑off sentiment could keep the stock under near‑term strain, testing the $100 level Jonas mentions. On the other hand, if SpaceX can demonstrate tangible progress in its AI initiatives—leveraging data from its launch and Starlink networks to improve autonomous systems, satellite‑operations efficiency, or new services—the market may reassess the segment’s worth, validating Jonas’s $300 target. For investors willing to look beyond the headline volatility, the current dip may present a chance to gain exposure to a company that combines high‑barrier aerospace capabilities with a budding AI edge, provided they are comfortable navigating the attendant uncertainties.
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2026-07-27/spacex-at-100-could-mean-investors-see-zero-value-in-its-ai