Key Takeaways
- Slovenia’s retail sales data will be released at 10:30 AM CET today, offering a early gauge of consumer demand in the Central‑and‑Eastern European (CEE) region.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) adoption surged in the EU in 2025, with average usage climbing 27 % year‑on‑year; larger firms (≥250 employees) lead the uptake, while all enterprise sizes are benefitting from AI‑driven productivity gains.
- AI is augmenting rather than replacing jobs, automating specific tasks (e.g., legal research, coding) and enabling business scaling at low cost, which can spur employment growth.
- A widening “digital divide” is emerging: top‑performing adopters are pulling further ahead of the EU average, leaving less‑advanced firms behind.
- CEE currencies have weakened versus the euro over the past week, largely mirroring movements in the EUR/USD pair; geopolitical tensions have eased, pulling oil prices down.
- Lower oil prices and a calmer geopolitical backdrop have boosted CEE bond markets, with 10‑year yields falling 10‑25 bps week‑on‑week, most pronounced in Hungary.
- In Romania, a political deadlock persists, but a minority government led either by PSD’s Sorin Grindeanu or the PNL‑USR‑UDMR coalition’s Siegfried Mureșan appears increasingly likely; consensus may still take time.
- Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar signaled optimism that Hungary could satisfy the EU’s economic criteria for euro adoption by 2030, following discussions with Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis.
Slovenia Retail Sales Release Sets the Tone for CEE Consumer Trends
Today at 10.30 AM CET, Slovenia will publish its latest retail sales figures. The data point is closely watched because it provides an early snapshot of household spending strength in a region where consumer confidence has been volatile amid inflationary pressures and shifting energy costs. Analysts will compare the month‑over‑month change against the previous quarter’s modest growth to gauge whether Slovenian shoppers are sustaining momentum or pulling back. A stronger‑than‑expected reading could reinforce expectations of resilient domestic demand across CEE, while a disappointing outcome may heighten concerns about the region’s exposure to external shocks.
Artificial Intelligence Adoption Accelerates Across the EU
The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become widespread throughout the European Union, and the increase in AI utilization in 2025 is striking when contrasted with the prior year. According to the latest macro outlook, average AI usage increased by 27 % in the EU compared with 2024. This surge reflects both heightened awareness of AI’s potential and the growing availability of user‑friendly tools that lower barriers to entry for firms of all sizes.
“All enterprises regardless of size are taking advantage of AI technology, although larger firms are systematically more likely to use at least one AI technology than medium-sized and small firms.”
The data show a clear size gradient: companies with 250 employees or more record the highest adoption rates, leveraging AI for complex analytics, process automation, and customer‑service enhancements. Medium‑sized and small enterprises are also embracing AI, albeit at a slower pace, often focusing on specific use‑cases such as marketing automation or basic predictive modeling.
Productivity Gains and the Selective Automation of Tasks
Initial findings suggest that AI is delivering tangible productivity improvements, allowing work to be completed faster and more efficiently. Importantly, the technology’s impact differs from traditional robotization: rather than eliminating entire occupations, AI tends to automate only certain skills and abilities within jobs. For instance, AI-powered platforms can provide rapid access to legal research, contract drafting, or code generation, enabling professionals to scale their output without a proportional increase in headcount.
“AI can offer access to some services (legal aspects, coding) that help to scale up business at relatively low cost.”
This selective automation creates a dual effect: while routine tasks become less labor‑intensive, the freed‑up capacity can be redirected toward higher‑value activities such as strategy, innovation, and client relationship management. Consequently, growing businesses may experience employment expansion in areas that complement AI‑driven efficiency, rather than outright job losses.
A Widening Digital Divide Among EU Firms
Despite the broad benefits, the macro outlook warns of an emerging digital divide. The strongest performers—those already ahead of the EU average in AI adoption—are not only maintaining their lead but appear to be moving further ahead, suggesting that early adopters are compounding their advantages through better data infrastructure, talent acquisition, and iterative learning.
This divergence raises concerns that less‑advanced firms, particularly small and medium‑sized enterprises lacking sufficient capital or expertise, could fall further behind, potentially exacerbating productivity gaps across member states. Policymakers may need to consider targeted support—such as subsidies for AI training, access to cloud computing resources, or innovation grants—to help laggards catch up and ensure a more inclusive digital transformation.
CEE Currencies Slide as EUR/USD Drives Market Sentiment
Over the past week, CEE currencies have weakened against the euro, a trend largely driven by movements in the EUR/USD pair. As the euro strengthened relative to the U.S. dollar—spurred by shifting expectations around U.S. monetary policy and easing geopolitical tensions—regional currencies such as the Polish złoty, Czech koruna, and Hungarian forint experienced corresponding depreciation.
The macro outlook notes that the global geopolitical situation has stabilized, which has been reflected heavily in the oil price, which has declined substantially. Lower oil prices reduce import costs for energy‑dependent CEE economies, alleviating some inflationary pressure, but the simultaneous currency weakness can offset those benefits by making imports more expensive in local currency terms.
Bond Markets React Positively to Lower Oil Prices and Calmer Geopolitics
The decline in oil prices and the easing of geopolitical risks have triggered a positive reaction in CEE bond markets. Investors, perceiving reduced sovereign risk and improved fiscal outlooks, have pushed 10‑year yields down by 10‑25 bps week‑on‑week, with the most pronounced drop observed in Hungary.
Lower yields translate into cheaper financing for governments and corporations, potentially stimulating investment and consumption. However, analysts caution that the sustainability of this rally depends on whether the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals—such as fiscal discipline and structural reforms—continue to improve alongside the favorable external environment.
Romania’s Political Landscape Moves Toward a Minority Government
In Romania, the political deadlock that has persisted since the latest elections shows signs of moving toward a resolution, albeit a fragile one. A minority government is becoming the most likely scenario, with two primary contenders for the premiership: PSD leader Sorin Grindeanu and the PNL‑USR‑UDMR coalition nominee Siegfried Mureșan.
“The two current options for prime minister are PSD leader Sorin Grindeanu and PNL–USR–UDMR nominee Siegfried Mureșan.”
While either figure could secure enough parliamentary support to form a governing coalition, analysts warn that reaching a lasting political consensus might take more time. Prolonged uncertainty could affect investor confidence and delay reforms needed to sustain economic growth, particularly in areas such as judicial independence and anti‑corruption measures.
Hungary Eyes Euro Adoption by 2030
Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar expressed optimism that his country could meet the European Union’s economic criteria for adopting the euro by 2030. This statement came after talks with Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis, during which Magyar highlighted progress on fiscal consolidation, inflation control, and structural reforms.
Achieving euro membership would eliminate exchange‑rate risk for Hungarian businesses engaged in intra‑EU trade and could lower borrowing costs further. Nonetheless, the path to 2030 remains contingent on maintaining macroeconomic stability, aligning wage growth with productivity gains, and ensuring that the banking sector remains resilient amid potential external shocks.
Outlook: Balancing Technological Promise with Political and Market Realities
The CEE region stands at a crossroads where technological advancement, currency dynamics, and political developments intersect. AI’s rapid diffusion promises productivity gains and new business models, yet the accompanying digital divide threatens to leave some firms behind. Currency weakness, while reflective of broader euro‑dollar movements, presents both challenges for import costs and opportunities for exporters.
In the bond market, lower yields signal investor confidence, but sustainability hinges on fiscal prudence and structural reforms. Politically, Romania’s shift toward a minority government and Hungary’s euro‑aspiration underscore the importance of stable governance for long‑term economic planning.
As stakeholders monitor Slovenia’s retail sales release and the forthcoming data Tuesday, the interplay of these forces will shape the near‑term trajectory of CEE economies—determining whether the region can harness AI‑driven growth while navigating external volatilities and internal political complexities.
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cee-use-of-artificial-intelligence-advances-fast-202606290612