Key Takeaways
- The Constitutional Court declared the National Assembly’s 2022 decision not to refer the Section 89 Independent Panel’s report to an Impeachment Committee unconstitutional and set it aside, sending the report to the Impeachment Committee for further action.
- Analysts warn that the ruling deepens a crisis for the ANC, threatening President Cyril Ramaphosa’s credibility and the party’s prospects in the 2026 local government elections.
- The ANC faces three broad options: recall Ramaphosa, ask him to resign, or allow him to step down voluntarily; however, a clear succession plan is lacking.
- Party rules allow the NEC to appoint an acting president if the president or deputy president is unable to serve, with the secretary‑general assuming the role if both are vacant.
- Public confidence in the ANC has fallen to roughly 40 % after the 2024 national and provincial polls, creating a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” dilemma for the leadership.
- Opposition parties are poised to frame any ANC hesitation as a disregard for constitutionalism, using it as a campaign tool.
- Experts stress the need for accelerated internal succession planning and a “soft reset” that places less‑tainted figures at the forefront of election campaigns, though Ramaphosa’s allies resist such moves.
- The impeachment process is expected to be lengthy, giving the ANC time to deliberate but also prolonging uncertainty ahead of the municipal polls.
Background on the Constitutional Court’s Phala Phala Judgment
The Constitutional Court ruled that the National Assembly’s December 2022 vote, which declined to refer the Section 89 Independent Panel’s report to an Impeachment Committee, was inconsistent with the Constitution, invalid, and therefore set aside. The three‑member panel, chaired by former Chief Justice Sandile Ngcobo, had found a prima facie case against President Cyril Ramaphosa concerning undeclared US dollars discovered and stolen from his Phala Phala farm in Bela‑Bela, Limpopo. Consequently, the Court directed that the report be forwarded to the Impeachment Committee established under the National Assembly’s rules, reopening the parliamentary route for possible impeachment proceedings.
Urgent Calls for ANC Leadership Meetings
In light of the judgment, political analysts have urged the ANC to convene urgent meetings of its top decision‑making bodies. Prof Ntwanano Mathebula of the University of Johannesburg’s School of Public Management, Governance and Public Policy suggested that the secretary‑general (Fikile Mbalula) or whoever is responsible should call an immediate National Executive Committee (NEC) or even the National Working Committee (NWC) meeting. He emphasized that the matter is not merely about a party politician but about the head of state, making it a priority for both the ANC and the nation.
ANC’s Role in the Crisis and Leadership Options
Mathebula argued that the ANC contributed to the current predicament by employing majoritarian tactics to block adoption of the independent panel’s report, thereby shielding Ramaphosa from having to account for the Phala Phala scandal. He described the situation as a crisis, noting that the case is serious enough to potentially constitute a violation of the president’s oath of office. The ANC now has three apparent courses of action: recall Ramaphosa (as it did with Thabo Mbeki in 2008 and Jacob Zuma in 2018), ask him to resign, or allow him to resign voluntarily. However, each option raises the critical question of who would assume leadership, especially given the absence of an obvious successor.
Succession Uncertainty and the Lack of a Clear Plan
Both Mbeki and Zuma were recalled while they were not serving as party leaders, underscoring that the ANC currently lacks a transparent succession plan. Mathebula questioned whether the party would accept a leader perceived as tainted by the Phala Phala affair and whether it would risk using Ramaphosa’s image in the upcoming local government election campaigns. This uncertainty complicates any decision to remove the president, as the party must consider both internal stability and electoral viability.
Constitutional Provisions for an Acting President
The ANC’s constitution provides a mechanism for leadership continuity. If the president or deputy president dies or becomes permanently incapacitated, the NEC—acting as the party’s highest decision‑making structure between national conferences—may appoint an acting president until a national conference is convened. Should both the president and deputy president be unavailable, the secretary‑general assumes the presidential functions. These provisions offer a temporary solution but do not address the longer‑term need for a credible, elected leader.
Public Confidence and Electoral Implications (Vilakazi’s View)
Prof Khanya Vilakazi, a political analyst at the University of Mpumalanga, highlighted that the ANC’s biggest challenges heading into the November municipal polls are the erosion of public confidence and the decline of the party’s electoral base to roughly 40 % after the 2024 national and provincial elections. He framed the dilemma as being “damned with him and damned without him”: retaining Ramaphosa risks further damage to the party’s image, while removing him could trigger internal disarray that might also hurt electoral performance. Vilakazi noted, however, that the public could interpret a decision to step aside as the ANC defending constitutional supremacy over personal loyalty, potentially restoring some credibility.
Risk of Opposition Exploitation
Vilakazi warned that if Ramaphosa remains in office and the ANC fails to act decisively, opposition parties will likely frame the situation as evidence that the ANC does not uphold constitutionalism. This narrative could become a central marching order in election campaigns, allowing rivals to portray the ANC as corrupt and unresponsive to the rule of law. Consequently, the party’s hesitation may be politically costly, providing opponents with a potent attack line ahead of the local elections.
Matebesi’s Perspective on Judgment Impact and Succession Planning
Prof Sethulego Matebesi of the University of the Free State clarified that the Constitutional Court’s ruling does not automatically remove Ramaphosa from office, but it carries significant consequences for both the president and the ANC. He advocated for accelerating internal succession planning coupled with a “soft reset” that elevates less‑tainted figures as the public faces of the party during elections. Matebesi observed that the ANC has not pursued this approach because Ramaphosa’s allies would view it as undermining their leader. He also cautioned that the impeachment process will likely be protracted, given the time required for parliamentary procedures, and noted that the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) have already demanded clear timelines for how the process will unfold. The six‑month window before the local elections remains a considerable period in political terms, leaving ample room for further developments.
Ndou’s Analysis: Perception vs. Reality and the Path Forward
Dr Levy Ndou characterized the judgment as a resuscitation of the Phala Phala issue, stressing that Ramaphosa still needs to make a final determination about his future. He countered the perception that the president has already been found guilty, clarifying that the Court’s decision merely reinstated the parliamentary pathway for consideration. Ndou asserted that Ramaphosa can only step down with the ANC’s blessing or if he is formally instructed to do so. In the context of the Government of National Unity, he added that Ramaphosa must also gauge the positions of coalition partners; if the ANC believes his continued presence would severely tarnish its image, it might request his departure—a step Ramaphosa himself had contemplated previously. Ndou concluded by highlighting the lingering question of who would lead the ANC and the country until the 2029 general elections should Ramaphosa exit office.
Outlook for the ANC and the 2026 Local Elections
Collectively, the expert commentary underscores a pivotal moment for the ANC. The Constitutional Court’s decision has revitalized scrutiny over the Phala Phala affair, pressing the party to reconcile internal leadership dilemmas with external electoral pressures. While the judgment does not imminently oust Ramaphosa, it creates a procedural avenue that could culminate in impeachment or a voluntary step‑down. The ANC’s response—whether it opts for urgent leadership consultations, pursues a succession plan, or attempts to shield its president—will shape public perception, influence coalition dynamics within the Government of National Unity, and ultimately determine its performance in the 2026 local government elections. The party’s ability to navigate this crisis with transparency, constitutional fidelity, and a credible leadership transition will be critical to restoring trust and securing electoral success.