Key Takeaways
- One Nation candidate David Farley won the Farrer by‑election with over 40 % of the primary vote, securing the party’s first ever seat in the Australian House of Representatives.
- The victory ended a 75‑year streak of Liberal or National representation in the electorate, which had been held by the Coalition since its creation in 1949.
- Preference deals between the Liberals and Nationals that placed One Nation ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe were pivotal, limiting Milthorpe’s path despite her 25 % primary vote.
- Party leaders offered contrasting reactions: Liberal leader Angus Taylor defended the preference decision while calling for internal reform; Nationals’ Bridget McKenzie signalled openness to working with One Nation; former Liberal leader Sussan Ley lamented the loss as a broader warning for the Coalition.
- All major candidates agreed on opposing further water buybacks in the Murray‑Darling Basin and supporting stricter scrutiny of basin management, while immigration reduction remained a more nuanced issue in the multicultural electorate.
- A Federal Court injunction forced the removal of unauthorised signage that mimicked the Australian Electoral Commission’s transparency register, highlighting electoral‑integrity concerns during the campaign.
- Farley now faces the challenge of delivering his campaign promises while cooperating with the Albanese government, marking a test of One Nation’s ability to govern from the crossbench.
Overview of the By‑Election Result
The Farrer by‑election delivered a historic breakthrough for One Nation, as candidate David Farley captured more than 40 % of the primary vote and was projected to win with a margin of about nine per cent after preferences. ABC election analyst Casey Briggs called the seat for One Nation shortly after 8:00 pm, confirming the party’s first ever lower‑house federal seat. Farley’s triumph means he will be the inaugural member for Farrer who does not belong to either the Liberal or National parties, ending a long‑standing Coalition dominance in the seat.
Candidate David Farley’s Victory and Background
Farley, a farmer and agribusiness professional, explained that he joined One Nation because he perceived it as “a political party of courage and tenacity” that matched his skills in agriculture and community service. He stated that his campaign message—centered on delivering what the electorate required—resonated across the depth and breadth of Farrer. Farley summed up the voter mood simply: “People just want change.” He characterised the win as the party being “at the end of its beginning,” likening One Nation to a mason reshaping Australian democracy with a chisel and hammer.
Pauline Hanson’s Reaction and Party Outlook
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson celebrated the result at a jubilant victory party, telling supporters, “we’re coming after those other seats” and pledging to “represent you, the people, and to get our country back.” Her remarks underscored a shift from the party’s previous status as a peripheral force to a more assertive parliamentary presence. Hanson’s confidence reflected the broader ambition of One Nation to expand its influence beyond niche issues and contest additional seats in future elections.
Historical Significance: One Nation’s First Federal Lower‑House Seat
Although One Nation had previously appeared in federal politics—most notably when Pauline Hanson was elected in 1996 as a Liberal‑endorsed candidate before losing her seat in 1998—the party had never secured a seat in the House of Representatives through a general election. Barnaby Joyce’s later defection to One Nation gave the party a symbolic presence in the lower house, but Farley’s win marks the first legitimate electoral victory for the party in that chamber, breaking a decades‑long barrier.
Prior Electoral Context in Farrer
Farrer has been a Coalition stronghold since its creation in 1949, represented uninterruptedly by either the Liberal or National parties for 30 elections. Former Liberal leader Sussan Ley held the seat for the last quarter of a century, reinforcing the electorate’s traditional alignment. In the 2025 federal election, the Liberal Party polled over 43 % of first‑preference votes, while independent Michelle Milthorpe captured 20 %, Labor 15 %, and One Nation just under seven per cent, illustrating the dramatic shift that unfolded a year later.
Shift in Voter Preferences: Coalition Decline
The by‑election results showed a stark reversal: with roughly 45 % of votes counted, Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski garnered only 11.47 % and Nationals’ Brad Robertson 9.59 %, relegating both Coalition parties to “also‑ran” status. This collapse followed the Coalition’s decision to direct preferences to One Nation ahead of the independent Milthorpe, a move that drastically altered the preference flow and undermined Milthorpe’s prospects despite her solid primary vote of about 25 %.
Preference Deals and Their Impact on the Independent Candidate
Milthorpe’s campaign had attracted roughly a quarter of the primary vote, but the Liberal and Nationals’ how‑to‑vote cards instructed supporters to preference One Nation before her. As a result, even if Milthorpe retained her primary support, she was unlikely to receive the crucial Coalition preferences needed to overtake Farley. Liberal deputy leader Jane Hume declined to comment on the propriety of the preference decision, whereas Liberal leader Angus Taylor defended it as reflecting voter wishes and insisted the party must now confront its own shortcomings.
Party Leaders’ Responses: Liberal and Nationals Perspectives
Taylor acknowledged the by‑election as “a mountain to climb” and urged the Liberal Party to move from “a party of convenience” to one of conviction, critiquing mass migration policies and calling for honesty with the Australian public. Nationals deputy leader Bridget McKenzie expressed openness to forming a minority government with One Nation, stating she would work with anyone keen to see Prime Minister Anthony Albanese leave office. Nationals leader Matt Canavan described the contest as a reintroduction to the electorate but affirmed the party’s long‑term commitment, recognising voter disillusionment with the political class.
Commentary from Former Leaders and Barnaby Joyce
Former Liberal leader Sussan Ley released a statement expressing “immense disappointment,” arguing that the loss could not be reduced to a recent Coalition split or the timing of the vote. She warned that the result validated her earlier claim that the Liberal Party must “change or die.” Barnaby Joyce, now One Nation’s member for New England, mocked the Liberals’ paltry 11 % share, comparing it to the “Marijuana Party,” and claimed voters had decided to “completely change the batting order,” signalling a broad appetite for alternatives.
Legal Controversy: Injunction over Unauthorised Signage
Polling day was marred by a Federal Court injunction ordering the removal of signage that falsely claimed authorisation from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). The posters, displayed at the Orana Community Centre in Springdale Heights, depicted an AEC transparency register of donations to independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe, who faced scrutiny over Climate 200 contributions. The AEC clarified that while the signs used its register data, they were neither erected nor authorised by the commission, and the court mandated their takedown to prevent voter misinformation.
Policy Consensus Among Candidates: Water and Immigration
Despite the partisan rivalry, all four leading candidates converged on key policy positions. Each opposed further water buybacks in the Murray‑Darling Basin and advocated for stricter investigation and oversight of basin management—a reflection of the electorate’s reliance on agriculture. On immigration, candidates generally supported lowering intake numbers, though they acknowledged the issue’s sensitivity in a region with multicultural communities and industries that depend on migrant labour, indicating a need for nuanced policy approaches.
Governance Challenges Ahead for Farley
Now elected, David Farley must translate his campaign promises into legislative action while navigating a parliament dominated by the Albanese government. His success will hinge on his ability to negotiate with major parties, secure support for water‑reform initiatives, and address immigration concerns without alienating the diverse constituencies of Farrer. The outcome will test whether One Nation can evolve from a protest movement into a governing force capable of delivering tangible outcomes for its electorate.