Key Takeaways
- Pauline Hanson says she is “on eggshells” ahead of the Farrer byelection, warning that any new MP who fails to work hard will not be tolerated.
- One Nation’s David Farley is the frontrunner against independent Michelle Milthorpe in a seat the Coalition has long considered safe.
- Farley’s comments suggesting Australia could accommodate 306,000 net overseas migrants clashed with Hanson’s official party cap of 130,000, prompting a public clarification.
- Hanson defended her strict party discipline, noting she has previously removed senators who did not deliver for constituents.
- The campaign revolves around cost‑of‑living pressures, water management, healthcare access, infrastructure, agriculture, and regional services.
Hanson’s Cautionary Mood
Pauline Hanson told Today show host Karl Stefanovic that she feels “on eggshells” as the Farrer byelection approaches on Saturday. Despite growing optimism around One Nation candidate David Farley, Hanson stressed she is not taking the contest for granted, noting that past elections have taught her that early confidence can evaporate once the final votes are counted. She emphasized that the outcome rests entirely with voters, and she remains vigilant until the last ballot is tallied.
The Byelection’s Political Stakes
The byelection was triggered by the resignation of former Liberal leader Sussan Ley after she was ousted from the party leadership in February, forcing the Coalition to defend a seat it has long regarded as a safely conservative stronghold. A One Nation victory would mark the party’s first ever win in the House of Representatives, breaking through in a traditional Coalition rural electorate and signalling a potential shift in the balance of power in regional NSW.
David Farley’s Profile and Immigration Remarks
David Farley, a 69‑year‑old agribusiness consultant from Narrandera, is positioned as the frontrunner against community‑backed independent Michelle Milthorpe. During a candidate forum, Farley argued that One Nation should align immigration with housing, health, and education policies, acknowledging the region’s reliance on skilled migrant labour. When asked whether the current net overseas migration figure of 306,000 was “too many,” he replied that it was “probably not,” adding that successful water policies would increase demand for skilled workers.
Hanson’s Clarification of Party Policy
Hanson swiftly moved to distance the party’s official stance from Farley’s remarks, asserting that One Nation’s immigration policy remains a cap of 130,000 net overseas migrants, not the 306,000 figure he referenced. She stated, “That’s not our policy to say 306,000 is OK… Our policy is cut off at 130,000. Deport all those who are in the country illegally.” Hanson explained that Farley was speaking specifically about local labour shortages in agricultural centres such as Griffith and Leeton, and that while she understood his perspective, the national party line stays firm.
Party Discipline and Past Enforcements
Addressing longstanding criticism of instability within One Nation’s ranks, Hanson defended her tight control over party discipline, saying she has previously removed MPs who failed to perform. She referenced past acrimonious splits with former senators Brian Burston and Fraser Anning, noting that those individuals “did nothing” and “sat there and did absolutely nothing.” Hanson warned that any MP who does not work for the people who elected them will not be rewarded, reinforcing her mantra that poor performance has no place in her party.
Core Campaign Issues
The byelection campaign has been shaped by several pressing regional concerns: cost‑of‑living pressures, water management, access to healthcare and regional services, infrastructure investment, and support for agriculture and local industries. Hanson highlighted these topics as central to One Nation’s platform, arguing that the major parties have neglected the needs of rural communities. Farley’s agribusiness background and Milthorpe’s community‑focused independent campaign have both sought to address these issues, albeit from different angles.
Michelle Milthorpe’s Independent Bid and “Teal” Labels
Michelle Milthorpe, who sliced Ley’s margin in the 2022 federal election, has repeatedly faced accusations of being a “teal” independent due to donations from Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 fund. In the final candidates forum, Milthorpe asserted she would be prepared to vote against net‑zero policies if they harmed regional communities and expressed opposition to a proposed local wind farm at Table Top. She stressed her commitment to representing the electorate’s interests rather than adhering to a particular ideological label.
Hanson’s Broader Political Vision
Framing the contest as part of a larger struggle against the major parties, Hanson declared, “Can I do it? Yes I can. I want our country back.” She portrayed the byelection as a test of whether a minor party can disrupt the entrenched duopoly in a traditionally safe Coalition seat. The outcome, she suggested, will not only determine the representation of Farrer but also signal whether One Nation’s message of strict immigration controls, rigorous party discipline, and regional advocacy can gain traction beyond its current base.
Outlook and Implications
As voters prepare to cast their ballots, the race remains tightly contested. Hanson’s vigilance reflects the high stakes for One Nation: a breakthrough victory could bolster the party’s national profile and encourage further challenges in other rural electorates, while a loss would reinforce the Coalition’s hold and raise questions about One Nation’s ability to translate local concerns into parliamentary success. Regardless of the result, the byelection underscores the growing influence of immigration policy, regional service delivery, and party discipline in shaping Australia’s political landscape.