Image Source: Patrick Everson
Key Takeaways:
- The Chicago Bears are a popular team among public bettors, with many backing them to win outright against the Los Angeles Rams.
- The Rams are the No. 1 power-rated team, but the Bears are getting more moneyline action.
- The Broncos are a rare home underdog in the NFL Divisional Round, with the Bills favored on the road.
- The Patriots are a public favorite, with many backing them to beat the Texans.
- The 49ers are getting sharp action against the Seahawks, with many expecting a close game.
Introduction to the NFL Divisional Round
The NFL Divisional Round is always an exciting time for football fans, with eight teams competing for a spot in the Conference Championships. This year’s Divisional Round is no exception, with several interesting storylines and matchups. One of the most notable is the rare case of a No. 1 seed, the Broncos, sitting as a home underdog against the Bills. As Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sports, noted, "The amount of Bears action we’ve seen the past month is unprecedented." This level of interest in the Bears is likely due to their cardiac comebacks, including their most recent win against the Packers on Wild Card Weekend.
The Bears’ Cardiac Comebacks
The Bears have made a name for themselves with their ability to come back from behind and win games. Twice in the past four weeks, they have mounted big fourth-quarter comebacks to post thrilling wins over the Packers. In Week 16, Chicago was a 1-point home favorite and erased a 13-3 fourth-quarter deficit to win 22-16 in overtime. Then on Wild Card Weekend, the Bears trailed 21-6 in the fourth quarter and pulled off a thrilling 31-27 victory. As Feazel noted, "L.A. is our No. 1 power-rated team, but we’re in kind of a unique spot where we are seeing more Bears money." This is evident in the betting action, with Caesars opening the Rams as 3.5-point favorites and toggling up to Rams -4 several times this week.
Weather Impacting the Total
The weather in Chicago on Sunday night is expected to be cold, with temperatures in the low teens and winds of 15-25 MPH. This is impacting the total, with early action bringing the number down. Caesars opened at 51 and as of Wednesday was at 48.5. As Feazel noted, "There’s a lot more Under money so far this week. It’s gonna be cold, and the Rams are a West Coast indoor team." However, he also noted that people tend to bet on the Over, so it’s likely that the total will see some action on game day.
49ers vs. Seahawks
On Saturday night, the sixth-seeded 49ers and top-seeded Seahawks will face off in the FOX prime-time spotlight. These two teams just met in Week 18, with the NFC’s top seed on the line. Seattle’s defense stuffed San Francisco in a 13-3 road win, with the Seahawks a 2.5-point favorite. This time, the Seahawks are at home and well-rested coming off a bye, so the spread is substantially larger. Caesars opened at Seattle -7, spent time at -7.5 early in the week, and on Wednesday was at Seahawks -7 (-114). As Feazel noted, "There was heavy sharp action against the 49ers on Wild Card Weekend, taking the Eagles. And that was the wrong side." This time, sharp action is a little bit more on the 49ers.
Patriots vs. Texans
The Patriots are a public favorite, with many backing them to beat the Texans. New England is a money-making 12-3 ATS in its last 15 outings, including a 16-3 victory as 3.5-point home favorites vs. the Chargers in the wild-card round. As Feazel noted, "It’s a shorter week for the Texans, since they played on Monday night. And Nico Collins is questionable." Action isn’t as one-sided as the Broncos-Bills game, but there’s more money on the Patriots. Professional bettor Randy McKay is on a four-game run in the NFL, including a win on Texans -3 vs. Steelers in the wild-card round. He already bet Houston +3.5 and still likes the Texans at their midweek odds of +3 (even).
Broncos vs. Bills
The Broncos are a rare home underdog in the NFL Divisional Round, with the Bills favored on the road. Caesars opened Buffalo as a 1.5-point favorite, and the Bills have been at either -1.5 or -1 so far. As of Wednesday afternoon, it was Bills -1 (even). As Feazel noted, "The sentiment with the Broncos getting a lot of close wins, is that their record doesn’t reflect their power rating in the market." The Bills have the top power rating among AFC teams, which is why they are favored on the road.
A Big Bet on the Bears
One high-roller took a shot on the Bears to win the Super Bowl, putting $50,000 on them at +6600. If the Bears win the Super Bowl, that bettor will haul in a hefty $3.3 million. As Feazel noted, "That’s the largest potential payout on any Super Bowl bet so far." The Bears will likely be sizable road underdogs in the NFC Championship Game if they make it that far, but a win would set them up for a potential Super Bowl run.
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-divisional-round-report-bears-action-becoming-unprecedented