Key Takeaways
- Canada’s population declined by 76,068 (-0.2%) in the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to a drop in non-permanent residents.
- The decline in non-permanent residents was mainly tied to decreases among study permit holders, work and study permit holders, and work permit holders.
- The federal government’s policy changes, such as the moratorium on low-wage LMIAs and restricted eligibility for spousal open work permits, have contributed to the decline in non-permanent residents.
- Permanent immigration continued at a similar pace, with Canada welcoming 102,867 immigrants in Q3 2025.
- The decline in non-permanent residents has led to a decrease in population in most provinces and territories, with Ontario and British Columbia experiencing the largest declines.
Introduction to Population Decline
Canada’s population declined in the third quarter of 2025, according to preliminary estimates released by Statistics Canada. Between July 1 and October 1, 2025, the population decreased by 76,068, representing a 0.2% decline. This is the first time Statistics Canada’s quarterly population estimates have shown a population decrease in 2025. The decline is mainly attributed to a drop in non-permanent residents, which is linked to changing government policies concerning immigration.
Provincial Population Changes
Most provinces and territories saw population decreases or were little changed in Q3 2025. The largest population declines occurred in Ontario (-0.4%) and British Columbia (-0.3%), followed by Manitoba and the Northwest Territories (both -0.2%). Only Alberta and Nunavut (both +0.2%) recorded population increases. This contrasts with recent years, where Canada recorded its highest quarterly population growth rate since 1957 at 1% in Q3 2023, and a 0.6% increase in Q3 2024.
Non-Permanent Resident Numbers Dropping
Statistics Canada estimates that the number of non-permanent residents fell by 176,479 in Q3 2025, which is the primary reason for the national population decline. This drop was larger than the declines seen in Q1 2025 (-55,194) and Q2 2025 (-58,719), and the largest decrease since comparable records began in Q3 1971. The number of non-permanent residents decreased from 3,024,216 (7.3% of the population) on July 1, 2025, to an estimated 2,847,737 (6.8% of the population) on October 1, 2025.
Reasons for Non-Permanent Resident Decline
The decline in non-permanent residents was mainly tied to decreases among study permit holders, work and study permit holders, and work permit holders. The reduction in "study permit holders only" was concentrated in Ontario (-47,511) and British Columbia (-14,291), which also have the highest numbers of study permit holders. At the same time, the number of asylum claimants, protected persons, and related groups increased by 7,324, rising for the 15th consecutive quarter to a record-high 504,767.
Permanent Immigration
While temporary immigration dynamics drove the overall population decrease, Statistics Canada says this was partly offset by permanent immigration. Canada welcomed 102,867 immigrants in Q3 2025, which is similar to quarterly increases seen since Q4 2024 and "in line" with meeting IRCC’s 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan. Permanent immigration has continued at a similar pace, despite the decline in non-permanent residents.
Government Policy Changes
The decline in the number of non-permanent residents in the third quarter of 2025 can be attributed to a string of policy changes enacted by the federal government over the last two years. These changes include a moratorium on low-wage LMIAs, restricted eligibility for spousal open work permits, Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) eligibility restrictions, and a cap on study permit applications. The federal government has implemented these changes to advance its objective of reducing temporary residents to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2027.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Canada’s population decline in the third quarter of 2025 is primarily due to a drop in non-permanent residents, which is linked to changing government policies concerning immigration. The decline in non-permanent residents has led to a decrease in population in most provinces and territories, with Ontario and British Columbia experiencing the largest declines. While permanent immigration has continued at a similar pace, the decline in non-permanent residents has had a significant impact on Canada’s population growth. The federal government’s policy changes aim to reduce temporary residents to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2027, and it will be important to monitor the impact of these changes on Canada’s population growth in the coming years.