Key Takeaways:
- GOP leaders are pressuring Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt to drop out of the Texas Senate race, warning that his candidacy could cost the party tens of millions of dollars.
- Hunt has refused to bow out, insisting that he is the only candidate who can win both the primary and the general election without costing "hundreds of millions of dollars."
- The race is becoming increasingly heated, with Hunt and Sen. John Cornyn exchanging nasty barbs, while firebrand Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has largely stayed on the sidelines.
- The stakes are high, with GOP leaders planning to spend as much as it takes to back Cornyn through both a primary and a runoff.
- President Donald Trump remains the biggest factor in the race, with both Hunt and Paxton courting his endorsement.
Introduction to the Texas Senate Race
The Texas Senate race is heating up, with Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt refusing to drop out despite pressure from GOP leaders. Hunt, a 44-year-old combat veteran and two-term House member, has announced that he will officially file for the race, setting aside weeks of speculation about whether he would continue with his insurgent Senate campaign or opt to stay in his Houston-area seat instead. Hunt’s decision has been met with criticism from Sen. John Cornyn, who has warned that the additional months of a campaign would siphon away tens of millions of dollars that could be spent in other states Republicans must win in order to keep the majority.
Hunt’s Decision to Stay in the Race
Hunt has revealed that he planned to officially file for the race, setting aside weeks of GOP speculation about whether he would continue with his insurgent Senate campaign or opt to stay in his Houston-area seat instead. "If Senate leadership does not like me being in this race, you know what I say? Good, because Senate leadership does not pick the leadership in Texas," Hunt said, insisting that he is the only candidate who can win both the primary and the general election without costing "hundreds of millions of dollars." Hunt has also argued that the base is not with the 73-year-old Cornyn, who has held his seat since 2002, and that the people of Texas are looking for an alternative.
The Role of President Trump
President Donald Trump remains the biggest factor in the race, with both Hunt and Paxton courting his endorsement. Trump has been lobbied hard by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other top Republicans to clear the field for Cornyn, but multiple people familiar with the matter have said Trump is unlikely to endorse in the coming weeks – and could wait to choose a candidate until a clear favorite emerges ahead of the March 3 primary. However, this would amount to a huge gamble for Trump, as the chances of one candidate winning an outright majority in the primary are much dimmer with Hunt in the race.
The Stakes of the Senate Battle
The stakes of the Senate battle are high, with GOP leaders planning to spend as much as it takes to back Cornyn through both a primary and a runoff. Pro-Cornyn groups have dominated the airwaves so far, with Cornyn-aligned outside groups spending roughly $40 million out of the $52.5 million total spent on ads in the GOP primary as of last week. Many Cornyn allies are furious at Hunt’s refusal to bow out, arguing that money spent to boost Cornyn so far could be much better spent in battleground contests like North Carolina or Michigan in a midterm environment that’s likely to favor Democrats.
The Dynamic Between Hunt, Cornyn, and Paxton
The increasingly nasty barbs between Hunt and Cornyn have created an unusual dynamic in the three-man race. Paxton — who remains in a virtual tie with Cornyn in a recent poll — has largely stayed on the sidelines while Hunt and Cornyn begin to pummel each other. Paxton has spent only $1 million on the race through September 30, compared to Cornyn’s $3.5 million and Hunt’s $2.3 million, according to fundraising data filed for the most recent quarter. Hunt has sidestepped criticisms of Paxton, who has made headlines over issues like a messy divorce and for reportedly claiming three houses as his primary mortgage.
The Endorsement of President Trump
Trump remains the biggest factor in the race, and his endorsement could be crucial in determining the outcome. Behind the scenes, Cornyn and top GOP Senate leaders have stepped up efforts in recent weeks to win over Trump and convince him to endorse as soon as possible. At a recent breakfast at the White House, Cornyn and Thune again made the case to Trump that he has closed the gap in polling after initial polls showed the incumbent senator trailing Paxton by wide margins in the primary. However, multiple people close to Paxton believe he is in the strongest position for Trump’s endorsement, if, or when, the president decides to choose a side.
The Implications of the Race
The implications of the race are significant, with Democrats salivating at the prospect of facing Paxton, who has weathered scandals in the state including an impeachment effort just two years ago. The race could also have implications for the overall Senate map, with Democrats needing to pick up four seats to win the Senate. The race in Texas is one of the few opportunities for Democrats to pick up a seat in a red state, and the party is likely to pour significant resources into the race if Paxton or Hunt emerges as the nominee. Ultimately, the outcome of the race will depend on a variety of factors, including the endorsement of President Trump, the performance of the candidates in the primary and runoff, and the ability of the candidates to appeal to voters in the general election.