Key Takeaways:
- Democrats are attempting to win a special election in a Republican-heavy Tennessee congressional district, which could be a major blow to Donald Trump’s legislative agenda.
- The district, which was drawn to favor Republicans, backed Trump and the previous Republican representative by 22-point margins in the last election.
- The Democratic candidate, Aftyn Behn, is trailing by only two percentage points in the latest poll, and the party is pouring money into her campaign in an effort to pull off an upset.
- A win for Behn could give Democrats a chance to take back the House of Representatives next year, while a narrow loss could still have advantages for the party in recruiting candidates and raising money for challenges in similar districts.
- The election is seen as a test of the Republican Party’s strength in deep Trump country, and the outcome could have implications for the 2026 midterm elections.
Introduction to the Special Election
Fresh off a wave of successes in November’s off-year elections, Democrats are angling for an audacious victory in a Republican-heavy Tennessee congressional district. The special election, which will take place on Tuesday, is being held to replace Mark Green, a Republican representative who resigned from Congress in July. The district, which was drawn by Republican leaders to ensure its voters favored their party, last year backed Trump and Green by 22-point margins. However, after Democrats stormed to victory in Virginia, New Jersey, and elsewhere earlier this month, the party and its allies have poured money into the campaign of state representative Aftyn Behn, hoping to pull off what would amount to a coup.
The Candidates and the District
The GOP nominee, Matt Van Epps, would normally be considered a shoo-in, but the latest poll shows him leading Behn by only two percentage points, with 48% support to her 46%. The district, which stretches from Kentucky to Alabama and encompasses part of Nashville, is mostly made up of rural territory in which Democrats have struggled to compete. However, it also includes part of blue-leaning Nashville, as well as the city of Clarksville, a swing area whose residents may well decide the race. Black voters, who make up about 15% of the district, would be key to a Behn victory, but turnout among the group can be unpredictable.
The Significance of the Election
Should Behn win, the GOP majority in the House of Representatives would become so small that Democrats may have a shot at taking back the chamber next year before the midterm elections. The party was rattled last week when formerly staunch Trump ally Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned, after falling out with the president. A win for Behn could also give Democrats a chance to recruit quality candidates and raise money for challenges in similarly red areas, forcing the GOP to spend scarce campaign dollars in areas it believed to be safe. On the other hand, if Van Epps wins by a healthy margin, it could deliver a dose of much-needed good news for Republicans and help to stop the bleeding that started earlier this month.
The Campaign and Outside Groups
Among the Democratic-linked groups injecting money into the race is the House Majority Pac, which spent $1m on digital and television advertising. Another Pac, Your Community, is running ads accusing Van Epps of being a "hedge fund puppet" and wanting to prevent the release of files related to deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The Democratic National Committee chair, Ken Martin, campaigned for Behn recently, and Kamala Harris made an appearance at one of her events. Trump has publicly encouraged voters to come out for Van Epps, and his main Pac, Maga Inc, is airing ads in the race, along with Club for Growth, a billionaire-backed anti-tax group.
Implications for the 2026 Midterm Elections
The outcome of the special election could have significant implications for the 2026 midterm elections. A national Democratic strategist who works on House races told the Guardian that the party’s aim is to recruit quality candidates and raise money for challenges in similarly red areas, forcing the GOP to spend scarce campaign dollars in areas it believed to be safe. However, a Republican strategist disagreed, saying that voters who turn out for special elections are different from those who vote in midterms, and good candidates can appear less popular than they actually are. The election is seen as a test of the Republican Party’s strength in deep Trump country, and the outcome could have significant implications for the party’s chances in the 2026 midterm elections.