Key Takeaways:
- The Kremlin has praised Donald Trump’s latest national security strategy, calling it an encouraging change of policy that largely aligns with Russian thinking.
- The White House’s efforts to push through a peace deal in Ukraine have entered a key phase, with US officials claiming they are in the final stage of reaching an agreement.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on European allies for support, seeking security guarantees if Ukraine agrees to renounce control of some territory.
- The US and Europe are unlikely to offer the kind of security guarantees that would deter Russia from invading again, and Vladimir Putin is unlikely to agree to a deal involving western troops in Ukraine.
- Exhaustion is setting in as Ukraine enters its fourth winter of full-scale war, with Russia continuing to target energy infrastructure and disrupt power and heating supplies.
Introduction to the Situation
The Kremlin has welcomed Donald Trump’s latest national security strategy, which criticizes the EU and expresses a desire to establish better relations with Russia. The White House document, published on Friday, has been seen as a significant shift in US policy, with the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, praising the adjustments as corresponding to Russia’s vision. However, Peskov warned that the supposed US "deep state" could try to sabotage Trump’s vision. This development comes as the White House’s efforts to push through a peace deal in Ukraine enter a critical phase, with US officials claiming they are close to reaching an agreement.
The Ukrainian Perspective
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to visit Downing Street on Monday for a four-way meeting with the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz. Zelenskyy has previously called on European allies for support, seeking security guarantees if Ukraine agrees to renounce control of some territory. A key issue for Kyiv is what security guarantees it would receive if it does agree to give up territory, and Zelenskyy has said he had a "substantive phone call" with US officials on Saturday evening to discuss key points that could ensure an end to the bloodshed and eliminate the threat of a new Russian full-scale invasion.
The US Role in the Conflict
The US has been actively involved in the conflict, with Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, visiting Moscow earlier in the week. The US has claimed to be close to a sustainable deal on numerous occasions, only for the claims to be exposed as wishful thinking. Trump’s outgoing Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, said at a defence forum on Saturday that the administration’s efforts to end the war were in "the last 10 metres", with two outstanding issues: territory and the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. However, many others in Trump’s orbit, including Witkoff, have been more open to adopting Russian positions, and Trump’s son, Donald Jr, has accused Zelenskyy of deliberately continuing the conflict for fear of losing power if it ended.
The Humanitarian Crisis
The conflict in Ukraine has resulted in a significant humanitarian crisis, with millions of Ukrainians facing disruptions to power and heating supplies as Russia continues to target energy infrastructure. Exhaustion is setting in as Ukraine enters its fourth winter of full-scale war, and Zelenskyy has been weakened by a corruption scandal that has touched numerous associates and led to the resignation of his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. The situation on the ground is dire, with one person killed during a drone attack in the northern Chernihiv region late on Saturday, and a combined attack of drones and missiles targeting energy infrastructure in the central city of Kremenchuk, leaving much of the city without power and water.
The Future of the Conflict
The future of the conflict remains uncertain, with the US and Europe unlikely to offer the kind of security guarantees that would deter Russia from invading again, and Vladimir Putin unlikely to agree to a deal involving western troops in Ukraine. Analysts in Kyiv say the situation is not yet so bad that Ukraine would be forced to sign any deal whatsoever simply to prevent a continuation of the war, but they say a difficult and potentially bleak winter lies ahead. As the conflict continues, it remains to be seen whether the US and Europe can find a way to bring about a lasting peace, or if the war will continue to drag on, causing further suffering for the people of Ukraine.