Key Takeaways:
- The U.S.-Indian relationship is at risk due to a series of diplomatic missteps by the Trump administration.
- The relationship has been strained by Trump’s claims of credit for ending the conflict between India and Pakistan, as well as his decision to host Pakistan’s military chief in the Oval Office.
- To repair the relationship, the U.S. will need to lower tariffs on Indian goods, back away from claims of mediating the India-Pakistan conflict, and demonstrate a deeper understanding of India’s role in the Indo-Pacific.
- The U.S. and India share concerns about Chinese power and can work together to strengthen their diplomatic positions and promote economic cooperation.
- The Trump administration should prioritize quiet diplomacy and avoid bold offers of mediation or resolution in the India-Pakistan conflict.
Introduction to U.S.-Indian Relations
The U.S.-Indian relationship has undergone significant developments in recent years, with the two countries strengthening their ties and cooperating on various issues. However, the relationship is now at risk due to a series of diplomatic missteps by the Trump administration. The problems began when Trump claimed credit for ending the brief conflict between India and Pakistan in May, despite India’s denial of any U.S. involvement. This incident has led to a deterioration in relations, with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveling to China and appearing to clasp hands with Chinese and Russian leaders.
Downward Spiral
The U.S.-Indian relationship was initially strong during Trump’s first term, with the president prioritizing building relations with India and elevating defense ties. However, the relationship began to deteriorate after the conflict between India and Pakistan in May. Trump’s decision to host Pakistan’s military chief, General Syed Asim Munir, in the Oval Office less than two months after Pakistani terrorists killed 26 people in Indian-administered Kashmir, further strained the relationship. The Trump administration’s imposition of draconian tariffs on Indian goods and Trump’s description of India as a "dead economy" have also contributed to the deterioration of relations.
Mend It, Don’t End It
The current impasse in U.S.-Indian relations is not the first crisis between the two countries, but it will be harder to recover from than previous incidents. Modi has taken a major domestic political hit from the deterioration of ties, and Indian public opinion has turned against the United States. However, there are signs of a modest thawing, with New Delhi recently signing a one-year agreement to increase imports of liquefied petroleum gas from the United States. To repair the relationship, the U.S. will need to lower tariffs on Indian goods, back away from claims of mediating the India-Pakistan conflict, and demonstrate a deeper understanding of India’s role in the Indo-Pacific.
Understanding the Indo-Pacific
The Trump administration needs to more clearly understand the roles that New Delhi and Islamabad play in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in the context of strategic competition with Beijing. An India that is more capable of defending its border with China and is more active in the surrounding ocean can stretch Chinese resources and complicate Beijing’s planning. U.S.-Indian technology cooperation can assist the United States in outcompeting China, particularly in artificial intelligence. The United States and India can strengthen their diplomatic positions by taking them together, particularly within the Quad framework.
Long Memory
Washington is not solely to blame for the deteriorating relations with India, as some of the U.S. grievances, such as New Delhi’s close ties to Moscow, are legitimate. However, the Trump administration should not conclude that taking a tough line on India will have no consequences. New Delhi will always see China as a strategic adversary, but it will not join an axis with Beijing and Moscow. Instead, India may accommodate China on border disputes and on trade and investment if it views the United States as an unreliable partner. The United States should prioritize quiet diplomacy and avoid bold offers of mediation or resolution in the India-Pakistan conflict.
Conclusion
The U.S.-Indian relationship is at a critical juncture, and it will take time and effort to repair the damage that has been inflicted. The Trump administration should act now to right the ship and prioritize quiet diplomacy, rather than bold offers of mediation or resolution. By doing so, the United States can strengthen its relationship with India and promote economic cooperation, while also addressing shared concerns about Chinese power. The consequences of failing to repair the relationship could be significant, with the potential for India to shift from being a competitor to Beijing in the Indo-Pacific to being a more agreeable neighbor.