Key Takeaways
- A significant snowfall is expected in Philly this weekend, with a 95% likelihood of at least an inch of snow and a possible total of 3-5 inches.
- The snow is expected to start late Saturday night and continue into mid-morning Sunday, with inch-an-hour snowfall rates possible.
- The snow is likely to stick around until at least midweek, with high temperatures expected to be around freezing or lower.
- This snowfall could be the biggest in two winters, surpassing the 3.1 inches that accumulated on February 11-12.
- The region has been experiencing a snow drought, with official totals at Philadelphia International Airport being less than half of normal for four consecutive winters.
Introduction to the Snowfall
The first measurable snowfall of the winter of 2025-26 is expected to hit Philly this weekend, and it has the potential to be the biggest in two winters. The National Weather Service is listing a 95% likelihood of at least an inch of snow, with the latest snow map forecast painting 3 inches for most of the region. This is in line with the AccuWeather Inc. outlook, but senior meteorologist Matt Benz notes that the total might be a "little bit" higher, especially from the city south and east.
Snowfall Timing and Duration
The weather service is expecting snow or snow mixed with rain to start late Saturday night, with the precipitation quickly becoming all snow as temperatures fall below freezing. The snow is expected to continue into mid-morning Sunday, with inch-an-hour snowfall rates possible. The storm is generated primarily by an upper-air disturbance, and while it’s possible that the storm may regroup off the coast, it’s likely to form too late to have any impact. The weather service has a 40% chance of 4 inches in the immediate Philly area, which would surpass the 3.1 inches that accumulated on February 11-12.
Snowfall Accumulation and Duration
The snow is likely to stick around until at least midweek, with high temperatures Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday expected to be around freezing or lower. The sun angles are also about as low as they get, which will help to preserve the snow cover. This is in contrast to the February storm, where the temperature climbed to near 50 a day later, and the strengthening sun made quick work of the snow cover. The forecasters note that there is a potential for a concentrated area of 4-5 inches of snowfall somewhere near the I-95 corridor and immediately south and east, with a 20% to 30% chance that some places get over 5 inches.
Regional Snowfall Trends
The region has been experiencing a snow drought, with official totals at Philadelphia International Airport being less than half of normal for four consecutive winters. The normal for a season is 23.2 inches, but the airport has only measured 8.1 inches in the winter of 2023-24, barely besting the 8 inches of New Orleans. Last season, snow fell to the north, west, and south, and that trend has continued in the early going. Richmond, Va., has measured 22.8 inches of snow since last December, nearly triple the Philly total.
Long-term Outlook
The meteorological winter, which began December 1, is certainly off to a wintry start, with temperatures averaging more than 6 degrees below normal. However, it’s not off to a particularly wet start, and whatever falls this weekend isn’t expected to exceed a half inch of liquid. In its long-term outlooks through December 26, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is on the fence regarding whether precipitation will be above or below normal. With high confidence, it is calling for a national warm-up, which could impact the region’s snowfall totals in the coming weeks.
Conclusion
In conclusion, a significant snowfall is expected in Philly this weekend, with the potential to be the biggest in two winters. The snow is expected to start late Saturday night and continue into mid-morning Sunday, with inch-an-hour snowfall rates possible. The snow is likely to stick around until at least midweek, with high temperatures expected to be around freezing or lower. While the region has been experiencing a snow drought, this snowfall could be a welcome change, and it’s likely to make for a white Sunday.