Key Takeaways:
- The ELN guerrilla group in Colombia has ordered civilians to stay home for 72 hours due to military exercises in response to threats from Donald Trump.
- Trump stated that countries producing and selling cocaine to the US are subject to attack, prompting the ELN to vow to fight for Colombia’s defense.
- The ELN controls key drug-producing regions in Colombia and has a growing presence in neighboring Venezuela.
- The group has been involved in failed peace negotiations with the Colombian government and is deeply involved in the drug trade.
- Colombia is the world’s top cocaine producer, according to the UN.
Introduction to the ELN and the Current Situation
The National Liberation Army (ELN), the oldest surviving guerrilla group in the Americas, has ordered civilians in areas under its control to stay indoors for 72 hours starting on Sunday. This move is in response to "intervention" threats from Donald Trump, who earlier this month stated that any country producing and selling cocaine to the US is "subject to attack". The ELN, which controls key drug-producing regions of Colombia, has vowed to fight for the country’s "defense" in the face of Trump’s "threats of imperialist intervention".
The ELN’s Military Exercises and Civilian Precautions
The ELN has urged civilians in areas it controls to stay indoors for 72 hours starting at 6am on Sunday, citing the need to avoid accidents during its military exercises. The group stated that "it is necessary for civilians not to mix with fighters to avoid accidents". This move is likely a precautionary measure to prevent civilian casualties during the military exercises, which are being carried out in response to the perceived threat from the US. The ELN’s decision to order civilians to stay indoors also highlights the group’s control over certain areas of Colombia and its ability to enforce its will on the local population.
Tensions in the Region and the ELN’s Growing Presence
Tensions in the region have grown in recent months, particularly with the US ramping up pressure on Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro. The US has put a $50m bounty on Maduro’s head and ordered a massive military buildup in the Caribbean, as well as carrying out a series of deadly airstrikes on alleged narco vessels, killing over 80 people. The ELN, which has a force of around 5,800 combatants, is present in over a fifth of Colombia’s 1,100-plus municipalities, according to the Insight Crime research center. The group has also built a growing presence in neighboring Venezuela, where it is present in eight of the country’s 24 states, expanding its finances, territorial control, and political influence.
The ELN’s Involvement in the Drug Trade and Failed Peace Negotiations
The ELN has taken part in failed peace negotiations with Colombia’s last five governments, including the current government of Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first ever leftist president. Two years of peace talks were suspended after the rebels intensified armed attacks in parts of the country. Despite professing to be driven by leftist, nationalist ideology, the ELN is deeply involved in the drug trade and has become one of the region’s most powerful organized crime groups. The group vies for territory and control of lucrative coca plantations and trafficking routes with dissident fighters that refused to lay down arms when the FARC guerrilla army disarmed under a 2016 peace deal.
Colombia’s Cocaine Production and the ELN’s Role
Colombia is the world’s top cocaine producer, according to the UN. The ELN’s control of key drug-producing regions in Colombia has contributed to the country’s notorious reputation as a major cocaine producer. The group’s involvement in the drug trade has also led to its growth and expansion, both in Colombia and neighboring Venezuela. The ELN’s connection to the Maduro regime in Venezuela has also been highlighted, with the thinktank Insight Crime noting that "the growth of the ELN and the survival of the Maduro regime are now connected". This connection has significant implications for the region, as it suggests that the ELN’s continued presence and influence are linked to the stability of the Maduro regime.
Conclusion and Future Implications
The ELN’s decision to carry out military exercises in response to Trump’s threats highlights the ongoing tensions in the region and the complex web of relationships between the US, Colombia, and Venezuela. The ELN’s involvement in the drug trade and its connection to the Maduro regime have significant implications for the region’s stability and security. As the situation continues to unfold, it is likely that the ELN will remain a major player in the region, with its influence and control over key drug-producing areas contributing to Colombia’s status as the world’s top cocaine producer. The international community will need to carefully consider its response to the ELN and the broader regional dynamics, taking into account the complex interplay of factors that are driving the situation.
