Key Takeaways
- President Trump promised a blue-collar jobs boom in 2024, but the latest jobs report shows that industries reliant on manual labor are cutting jobs instead of adding them.
- The transportation and warehousing industry, mining and logging, and manufacturing are among the sectors that have lost jobs in recent months.
- Economists blame the president’s tariff policy, high borrowing costs, automation, and a shortage of skilled workers for the pressure on blue-collar jobs.
- Despite the challenges, some experts expect a rebound in blue-collar job growth as the initial tariff shock eases.
- The health care industry continues to enjoy a hiring boom, adding almost 800,000 jobs over the past year.
Introduction to the Blue-Collar Jobs Boom Promise
President Donald Trump made a promise to voters in 2024 that his policies would deliver a blue-collar jobs boom if he was returned to the White House. During a rally in Georgia, Trump stated that his policies would attract "energy-hungry industries" and create "millions and millions of blue-collar jobs and jobs of every type." However, as his first calendar year in office comes to a close, the blue-collar jobs boom has yet to materialize. In fact, industries that rely on manual labor are cutting jobs, not adding them, a trend that economists blame at least in part on the president’s historic and volatile tariff policy.
The Current State of Blue-Collar Jobs
The latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that most sectors traditionally considered blue collar have been shrinking their headcount. The transportation and warehousing industry has cut jobs in each of the past three months, losing an average of 17,200 jobs over that period. Mining and logging payrolls are also down, with an average loss of 2,000 jobs over the past three months. Even manufacturing, the industry that Trump’s tariffs are designed to boost, is cutting jobs. Manufacturing employment fell by 5,000 in November to the lowest level since March 2022, during the rebound from Covid-19. In fact, manufacturing employment is down seven months in a row, each month since Trump rolled out his "Liberation Day" tariffs.
Bright Spots and Challenges
One of the only bright spots for blue-collar jobs is construction, which added a strong 28,000 jobs in November. After shedding workers earlier this year, construction is averaging a gain of 17,333 jobs over the past three months. However, the challenges facing blue-collar workers are significant. Economists point to a variety of factors, including trade policy, high borrowing costs, automation, and a shortage of skilled workers. The uncertainty over trade policy and rising prices on imports that blue-collar workers use to make goods are hurting demand for workers. As Michael Reid, senior US economist at RBC, noted, "Reshoring doesn’t happen overnight. It doesn’t even happen in six or seven months. It takes several years."
The Impact of Tariff Policy
Trump’s tariff policy has been a major factor in the pressure on blue-collar jobs. The tariffs on critical imports, such as steel, aluminum, and copper, have increased input costs for manufacturers, making it easier for them to cut labor. As Reid said, "When input costs go up, one of the easiest things to do is to cut labor." The tariff-driven slowdown in the cyclical parts of the economy has hit blue-collar jobs hard. Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, noted that the hit to blue-collar jobs reflects a tariff-driven slowdown in the cyclical parts of the economy. "These are the sectors tied to tariffs," she said.
The Contrast with the Health Care Industry
In contrast to the struggles facing blue-collar workers, the health care industry continues to enjoy a hiring boom. Employment in the health care and social assistance industry jumped by 64,000 in November and 64,600 in October. Over the past year, this part of the economy has added almost 800,000 jobs, driven by strong demand from an aging population. The health care industry is less exposed to tariffs and the ups and downs of the economy, making it a bright spot in an otherwise challenging job market.
Looking to the Future
Despite the current challenges, some experts expect a rebound in blue-collar job growth as the initial tariff shock eases. Roth expects job growth to accelerate in blue-collar sectors as the tariff shock fades with the passage of time. "Boom might be an optimistic term," she said, "but you could see these sectors look better, not because manufacturing is coming back to the US, but because the tariff shock will fade with the passage of time." The stakes are massive for families and local economies, as Roth noted. "If you can’t find a job nearby, or the one you have isn’t keeping up with inflation, it affects people’s ability to provide for their families. It’s not just numbers — it’s the way communities are feeling the strain."