Key Takeaways
- The UK might experience a wintry snap this Christmas, with some areas potentially having a white Christmas.
- High pressure is building, leading to drier and more settled weather, although some areas may still experience showers.
- Temperatures on Christmas Day are expected to reach 7C during the day and -3C or -4C at night, with a strong easterly breeze making it feel colder.
- The chance of noteworthy snowfall is around 10%, but most of the UK’s snow days occur between January and March.
- The climate crisis has contributed to warmer Decembers in recent decades, reducing the overall chance of snowfall on Christmas Day.
Introduction to Winter Weather
The UK is expected to experience a wintry snap this Christmas, with some areas potentially having a white Christmas. Despite ongoing showers, experts say that high pressure is building, which will lead to drier and more settled weather in many areas. The Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, has stated that a strong easterly breeze will make it feel colder, although not unusually so for this time of year. Temperatures on Christmas Day are expected to reach a daytime high of 7C and night-time lows of -3C or -4C, which could lead to a festive atmosphere with Father Christmas being accompanied by Jack Frost.
Chance of a White Christmas
According to Marco Petagna of the Met Office, the south coast of England, particularly South Devon and Cornwall, has the greatest chance of seeing the odd wintry flurry. However, for a white Christmas to be officially declared, all that is needed is for one flake of snow to fall anywhere in the UK. The Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS) notes that a snowflake has fallen on Christmas Day 54 times over the past 66 years, and except for 2024, every year since 2020 has technically been deemed "white". In 2023, 11% of weather stations recorded snow falling on Christmas Day, and 9% in 2022, although snow was not recorded as settling in either year.
Historical Context of Snowy Winters
The little ice age, which occurred between the 16th and 19th centuries, meant that it was more common to have a harsh winter, which may have influenced the writings of Charles Dickens, who often referred to a cold and snowy Christmas. Additionally, before 1752, when the transition to the Gregorian calendar was completed in Britain, 25 December fell later in the winter, which may have increased the chances of a snowy Christmas. More recently, particularly harsh winters have included those of 1946-47 and 1962-63, with the latter being notable for much of England remaining covered in snow every day from late December until early March 1963.
Impact of Climate Crisis
The rarity of festive snow cover today is not a surprise, given the climate crisis. Met Office data has revealed that Decembers in the UK have become warmer in recent decades, which reduces the overall chance of snowfall on Christmas Day. However, natural variability means that cold and snowy spells can still occur, and the Met Office notes that most of the UK’s snow days happen between January and March. As the poet Sara Coleridge put it: "January brings the snow, makes our feet and fingers glow." This suggests that while a snowy Christmas may be unlikely, snowballs are not a thing of the past, and the UK can still expect to experience snowy weather in the coming months.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while a snowy Christmas is unlikely this year, the UK might still experience a wintry snap, with some areas potentially having a white Christmas. High pressure is building, leading to drier and more settled weather, although some areas may still experience showers. The climate crisis has contributed to warmer Decembers in recent decades, reducing the overall chance of snowfall on Christmas Day. However, most of the UK’s snow days occur between January and March, so it’s not too late to hope for a snowy winter. As the Met Office notes, natural variability means that cold and snowy spells can still occur, and the UK can still expect to experience snowy weather in the coming months.