Key Takeaways
- Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is aiming for a "reverse takeover" of the Conservatives by winning over defectors and replacing the party.
- Farage has denied reports of a potential electoral deal with the Tories, but acknowledges he would like to absorb the party.
- Labour has claimed that Reform and the Tories are ideologically the same, and plans to portray them as being in each other’s pockets at the local elections.
- Some Tory rightwingers believe the party will need to do a deal with Reform to survive, but the details of any potential pact are unclear.
- Options for a pact range from a pre-election non-aggression pact to a post-election confidence and supply arrangement or even a full-blown coalition.
Introduction to Reform UK’s Strategy
Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, has stated that his party is aiming for a "reverse takeover" of the Conservatives. This means that rather than forming a formal pact with the Tories, Reform UK plans to win over defectors and eventually replace the party. Farage has denied reports that he told donors an electoral deal with the Tories was "inevitable," but he has acknowledged that he would like to absorb the party. This strategy has been met with skepticism by some, who believe that a deal between the two parties would be more likely to happen if Kemi Badenoch were not the leader of the Tories.
Labour’s Reaction to Reform UK’s Strategy
Labour has seized on Farage’s comments, claiming that Reform UK and the Tories are ideologically the same. Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party, has hit out at the "unholy alliance" between the two parties. Senior Labour sources have said that the idea of a merger between Reform UK and the Tories would be highly useful at the local elections, and that they plan to portray the two parties as being in each other’s pockets. This could potentially harm the reputation of both parties and give Labour an advantage at the polls.
Reform UK’s Relationship with the Tories
Reform UK has already accepted over 21 current and former Tory MPs, while no MPs from other parties have defected. This highlights the overlap between the two parties and suggests that there may be opportunities for Reform UK to win over more Tory defectors. However, Richard Tice, the deputy leader of Reform UK, has said that donors who think Farage wants a pact with the Tories are "confused." Instead, Tice claims that Farage wants to replace the Tories. One Reform donor has said that they would trust Farage’s judgment on whether to go for a merger with the Tories, suggesting that they would not be opposed to the idea.
Potential for a Pact Between Reform UK and the Tories
Despite Farage’s denials, there are still rumors of a potential pact between Reform UK and the Tories. Some senior Tory rightwingers believe that the party will need to do a deal with Reform UK to survive, but the details of any potential pact are unclear. Options range from a pre-election non-aggression pact, under which the two parties would avoid standing against each other in certain constituencies, to a post-election confidence and supply arrangement, and even to a full-blown coalition in order to govern. However, any discussions about a pact would likely need to remain private, at least until after the election.
Robert Jenrick’s Role in a Potential Pact
Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, is understood to be among those who believe a deal between Reform UK and the Tories is inevitable. In a leaked recording, Jenrick was heard vowing to "unite the right" before the next election. One ally has said that Jenrick and Farage agree on most things, but that Jenrick is to the right of Farage on some issues. Jenrick has rejected the idea of defecting to Reform UK, saying that he is committed to the Tory party. However, his comments suggest that he may be open to a pact between the two parties in the future.
Implications of a Potential Pact
A potential pact between Reform UK and the Tories could have significant implications for the future of British politics. If the two parties were to form a coalition or confidence and supply arrangement, it could give them a majority in parliament and allow them to pass legislation more easily. However, it could also alienate some voters who are opposed to the idea of a deal between the two parties. According to Tory strategists, about a quarter of their voter base would be willing to back Labour to keep Farage out of No 10, while three-quarters would vote for Reform UK. This suggests that a pact between the two parties could be a risky strategy, and that it may not be enough to guarantee a victory at the next election.