Image Source: James Holliman
Key Takeaways
- The Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams will meet in the NFC Championship Game, with the winner likely to be the favorite in the Super Bowl.
- The New England Patriots are favored to win the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos, who will be starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
- The Seahawks and Rams have a history of close games, with their last two matchups decided by a total of 5 points.
- The SportsLine Projection Model has the Broncos covering the spread in 58% of its simulations and winning outright 46% of the time.
- The model also has the Seahawks winning outright in 62% of its simulations and covering the spread at a 58% rate.
Introduction to the NFL Divisional Playoffs
The NFL Divisional Playoffs did not offer many surprises, with the expected winners emerging victorious. However, there was some drama, particularly in the Chicago Bears’ game against the Los Angeles Rams. As the article notes, "The Bears appeared to be ready to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, but Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams followed up a miracle tying touchdown pass on fourth down at the end of regulation with an interception in overtime that allowed the Rams to win 20-17." The Rams’ win set up a rematch against their NFC West rivals, the Seattle Seahawks, in the NFC Championship Game.
NFC Championship Game Preview
The Seahawks and Rams have a history of close games, with their last two matchups decided by a total of 5 points. In their Week 16 matchup, the Seahawks came back from 16 points down to win 38-37 in overtime. As the article notes, "Seattle had 414 total yards that day, and Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for just 130." However, in their Week 11 matchup, the Rams won 21-19, despite Seattle having a chance to win despite Sam Darnold throwing four interceptions. The Seahawks come into the game with confidence after a dominant 41-6 win over the San Francisco 49ers, in which running back Kenneth Walker had 145 total yards and three touchdowns.
AFC Championship Game Preview
The New England Patriots are favored to win the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos, who will be starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. The Broncos’ starting quarterback, Bo Nix, broke his ankle in the team’s win over the Buffalo Bills, and Stidham has not attempted a pass in the past two seasons. As the article notes, "Stidham has appeared in 20 games with a 59.4 completion percentage, eight touchdowns and eight interceptions, and is 1-3 as a starter." The Patriots have a strong defense, which has allowed just 135 rushing yards in their two playoff games. However, the Broncos have a great defense as well, leading the NFL with 68 sacks in the regular season.
Super Bowl Odds
The Seahawks remain the team to beat in the Super Bowl futures market, with odds of +145. The Rams are second at +225, followed by the Patriots at +255. The Broncos are the longshots at +1000. As the article notes, "The Seahawks (15-3) remain the team to beat in the Super Bowl Futures at DraftKings, and the Rams (14-5) still sit second, but at +225 the gap has widened slightly." The Patriots’ odds have improved significantly after their defensive performance in the Divisional Round and the Broncos’ sudden quarterback change.
Conclusion
The NFL Championship Round is set, with the Seahawks and Rams meeting in the NFC Championship Game and the Patriots facing the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game. The winners of these games will advance to the Super Bowl, and the Seahawks and Rams are currently the favorites to win it all. As the article notes, "The Seahawks vs. Rams matchup has plenty of history, so you’d think you could get an idea of what to expect." However, with the unpredictability of the NFL, anything can happen in these championship games.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-super-bowl-odds-update-seahawks-vs-rams-should-determine-ultimate-favorite-but-patriots-could-strike/