Key Takeaways
- The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is currently unable to mount a credible defence due to years of funding cuts and skills losses.
- Defence analysts believe that the SANDF is impaired to the point where the country is in no position to repel an external attack.
- The US military is considered to be in a league of its own and would have less trouble dealing with the SA military than it did with the Venezuelan armed forces.
- The SANDF’s modest submarine fleet may be able to play a realistic deterrent role in forcing powerful actors to think twice before targeting the country’s waters.
- The SA Navy would need to get its fleet working, upgraded, and equipped with new torpedoes, mines, and missiles to achieve this.
Introduction to the SANDF’s Current State
The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is facing significant challenges in terms of its ability to defend the country against external threats. According to defence analysts, years of funding cuts and skills losses have left the SANDF unable to mount a credible defence. This is a concerning situation, as South Africa faces no immediate threat of external attack, but the SANDF is currently impaired to the point where the country is in no position to repel one. Defence analyst Dean Wingrin notes that even if the SANDF had not suffered a major loss of funding, critical capabilities, and operational skills over the past decades, the US military is still in a league of its own and would have less trouble dealing with the SA military than it did with the Venezuelan armed forces.
The US Military’s Capabilities
The US military has a significant advantage over the SANDF, with aircraft carriers at sea, long-range missiles, and strategic bombers capable of operating from the continental US and Ascension Island in the mid-Atlantic. This means that the US military could handle a logistic disadvantage, such as South Africa’s position at the tip of Africa, with ease. Wingrin notes that the severe hammering Iran received, despite having large numbers of modern air defence systems and forewarning of strikes, is a testament to the US military’s capabilities. He believes that it is unrealistic to expect SA to fend off an attack if America engaged in regime change outside its new doctrine of focusing on dominance in the western hemisphere.
The Importance of Equipping and Funding the SANDF
Wingrin emphasizes that SA should be looking at equipping and funding itself to compare with its African peers, rather than trying to compete with global military powers. He notes that the country cannot afford to lose any more capability, nor should it. Instead, the focus should be on re-evaluating past practices and making wise political pronouncements and economic policies, putting non-alignment into practice. This approach would allow the SANDF to focus on its core responsibilities and build its capabilities in a way that is sustainable and effective.
The Role of the SA Navy’s Submarine Fleet
Defence expert Helmoed-Römer Heitman notes that the SA Navy’s modest submarine fleet may be far from an advantage against global military powers, but it could play a realistic deterrent role in forcing powerful actors to think twice before targeting the country’s waters. A small submarine force of about six vessels would not deter a major power from an act important to its interests, but it would precipitate a careful risk and benefit analysis that might dissuade military superpowers from action in those waters. To achieve this, the SA Navy would need to get its fleet working, upgraded, and equipped with new torpedoes, mines, and missiles.
The Potential Threats to South Africa
Heitman notes that there are two possible exceptions to the general rule that South Africa is too far away and too unimportant to be bothered by major powers. The first is if there were to be a war between China and the West, which would require the Western powers to use the sea route around the Cape. The second is if there were to be a "cold war" between China and the US and other Western powers, which could lead to a proxy force being inserted into part of Africa. In both cases, the SA Navy’s submarine fleet could play a crucial role in defending the country’s waters and preventing the deployment of a proxy force.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the SANDF is currently facing significant challenges in terms of its ability to defend the country against external threats. The US military’s capabilities are a major concern, and the SANDF is impaired to the point where the country is in no position to repel an attack. However, by equipping and funding itself to compare with its African peers, and by building its submarine fleet, the SANDF can build its capabilities and play a realistic deterrent role in forcing powerful actors to think twice before targeting the country’s waters. Ultimately, the key to the SANDF’s success will be its ability to re-evaluate its past practices and make wise political pronouncements and economic policies, putting non-alignment into practice.
