Key Takeaways
- The United States is likely to experience negative net migration for the first time in decades, with an estimated net migration of between -10,000 and -295,000 in 2025.
- The decline in migration is attributed to the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement actions, including a suspension of refugee programs and humanitarian parole programs.
- The reduction in border arrivals, particularly through humanitarian parole and refugee programs, had the biggest impact on reducing migration flows in 2025.
- The trend is expected to continue in 2026, with projected net migration ranging from -925,000 to +185,000.
- The decline in migration is likely to have significant economic implications, including weaker employment, GDP, and consumer spending growth.
Introduction to Negative Net Migration
The United States is experiencing a significant shift in its migration trends, with net migration likely to be negative for the first time in decades. According to a report released by the Brookings Institution, the estimated net migration for 2025 is between -10,000 and -295,000. This means that more people are leaving the country than entering it, a phenomenon that has not been seen in the US in at least 50 years. The report attributes this decline to the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement actions, which have led to a significant drop-off in new entries into the country and an increase in removals and voluntary departures.
Trump Administration Policies and Migration Decline
The Trump administration’s policies have been a major driving factor in the decline of migration flows. The suspension of refugee programs and humanitarian parole programs has significantly reduced the number of people entering the country. Additionally, the administration’s increased immigration enforcement actions, including the deployment of federal immigration agents to Democratic-led cities, have led to a surge in removals and voluntary departures. The report notes that these policies have had a "dramatic" impact on migration flows, with the number of people coming in through the border who were granted parole or a notice to appear for a later court date decreasing significantly from 1.41 million in 2024 to 67,000 to 70,000 in 2025.
Reduced Border Arrivals and Migration Flow
The reduction in border arrivals has had the biggest impact on reducing migration flows in 2025. The report found that the number of people coming in through the border who were granted parole or a notice to appear for a later court date decreased significantly in 2025, with many of those entries occurring in the first month of the year, before Trump’s second inauguration. The report’s authors used various data sources, including reported entries through the border, green card authorization numbers, and refugee admittance trends, to estimate the migration flow. They also considered removals, voluntary departures, and normal factors that affect out-migration to estimate the outflow factors.
Economic Implications of Negative Net Migration
The decline in migration is likely to have significant economic implications, including weaker employment, GDP, and consumer spending growth. The report notes that the slowdown in migration implies a reduction in the labor force, which could lead to slower economic growth. The decline in migration could also lead to a reduction in consumer spending, as migrants often contribute to the economy through their purchases and investments. The report’s authors predict that net immigration flow will continue to be negative in 2026, with an estimated range of -925,000 to +185,000.
Comparison with Congressional Budget Office Estimates
The Brookings report’s estimate of net migration is lower than that of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which projected net migration for 2025 to be around 410,000. The CBO estimate includes fewer deportations than the Brookings estimate and assumes that voluntary out-migration falls in response to increased enforcement activity, whereas the Brookings report assumes it rises. The difference in estimates highlights the uncertainty surrounding migration trends and the need for more accurate data to inform policy decisions.
Conclusion and Future Projections
In conclusion, the United States is experiencing a significant decline in migration flows, with net migration likely to be negative for the first time in decades. The Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement actions have been a major driving factor in this decline, with the reduction in border arrivals having the biggest impact on reducing migration flows. The decline in migration is likely to have significant economic implications, and the trend is expected to continue in 2026. As the US continues to grapple with the challenges of immigration, it is essential to have accurate and reliable data to inform policy decisions and ensure that the country’s immigration policies are effective and sustainable in the long term.
