Key Takeaways
- 45% of Trump voters oppose him running for a third term in 2028, while 43% support the idea and 11% are unsure.
- The 22nd Amendment limits presidents to two terms, making a third Trump term illegal.
- Trump’s contentious second term has led to record-low approval ratings, with 58% of Americans disapproving of him.
- High prices and the cost-of-living crisis have fueled a break between Trump and his supporters, with 37% of Trump voters saying things have never been worse.
- The 2026 midterm election cycle may be a liability for Republican candidates due to Trump’s unpopularity.
Introduction to the Issue
Even Donald Trump’s most diehard supporters are souring on the idea of four more years of him in the White House. A recent Economist/YouGov poll found that among voters who backed Trump in 2024, 45 percent oppose the president running for a third term in 2028. This is a significant shift in opinion, as a third Trump term was once a favorite "joke" of the administration. However, the idea has gained steam thanks to sycophantic Republican reps, official "Trump 2028" merchandise, and former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon saying there is a "plan in place" to get Trump a third term.
The Constitutional Limitation
A third Trump term is illegal under the 22nd Amendment, which limits presidents to two terms. Trump himself has seemed less enthusiastic about the idea, admitting that the Constitution is "pretty clear" he can’t run again. In October, Trump said it was "too bad" he couldn’t run again, and on Tuesday, he acknowledged "it’s not gonna be me" in 2028 while suggesting members of his Cabinet could be the next Republican nominee. Despite this, some Republicans have vocally supported Trump circumventing the Constitution and running for a third term in 2028.
The Shift in Opinion
The Economist/YouGov poll was asking a hypothetical, but the result suggests even MAGA voters are ready to move on from Trump—underscoring his loosening grip on the Republican Party. According to Boston University politics professor Thomas Whalen, "MAGA is not immune to the law of political gravity. It is a spent force at this point, bereft of ideas and urgency. I suspect Trump may want to run again, but he runs into a major roadblock known as the U.S. Constitution. There can be no third terms. Also, eight years of Donald Trump is enough drama for even the most devout MAGA supporter."
The Consequences of a Contentious Second Term
The president’s contentious second term, rife with scandal and unpopular policies, has led him to hit record-low approval ratings. Every pollster currently has Trump with a negative approval rating. The Economist/YouGov poll found that 58 percent of Americans disapproved of Trump, while 39 percent approved. High prices have also fueled MAGA’s break with Trump, with Americans blaming Trump for the country’s cost-of-living crisis. A significant 37 percent of Trump voters say things have never been worse than they are right now.
The Implications for the 2026 Midterm Election
The current situation sets the stage for a 2026 midterm election cycle where Trump will undeniably be a liability for Republican candidates, barring a dramatic shift by November. Democrats are taking advantage of the situation, using an "affordability" message to make massive gains in special elections. As the election cycle approaches, it remains to be seen how Republican candidates will navigate the challenges posed by Trump’s unpopularity. One thing is certain, however: the idea of a third Trump term is becoming increasingly unpopular, even among his most loyal supporters.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the idea of a third Trump term is losing steam, even among his most diehard supporters. The 22nd Amendment, Trump’s contentious second term, and the cost-of-living crisis have all contributed to a shift in opinion. As the 2026 midterm election cycle approaches, Republican candidates will need to navigate the challenges posed by Trump’s unpopularity. The future of the Republican Party and the country as a whole will depend on how they respond to this situation. Will they continue to support Trump, or will they move on to a new leader? Only time will tell.
