Key Takeaways:
- Several key U.S. allies in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and Oman, are engaging in 72 hours of intensive diplomacy to prevent a military conflict between Iran and the United States.
- The countries involved in the diplomatic push are urging the U.S. to refrain from strikes on Iran, citing regional security and economic vulnerabilities, and warning Iran that any counterattack on U.S. facilities in the Gulf would have serious consequences.
- The U.S. has withdrawn some personnel from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar as a "precautionary measure" and has told Americans to avoid going to military bases in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
- The diplomatic efforts are aimed at preventing attacks or further escalation, with the goal of creating space for eventual discussions on a nuclear deal and other issues.
Introduction to the Diplomatic Efforts
The situation between the United States and Iran has been escalating, with the U.S. threatening to take action against Iran if its security forces continue their violent crackdown on nationwide protests. In an effort to prevent a military conflict, several key U.S. allies in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and Oman, have launched 72 hours of intensive diplomacy. According to a Gulf official, the talks have focused on lowering the temperature in public rhetoric and avoiding military action that could trigger wider regional instability.
The Message to the U.S. and Iran
The message from the four Arab states to the U.S. has been clear: refrain from strikes on Iran, citing the region’s security and economic vulnerabilities, and highlighting the risk that the U.S. could ultimately be affected as well. On the other hand, the message to Iran has been that any counterattack on U.S. facilities in the Gulf would have serious consequences for Iran’s relations with countries across the region. Thousands of American forces stationed in the Gulf region could be targets of potential Iranian retaliation in the event of a U.S. attack on Iran. The U.S. has already taken precautions, withdrawing some personnel from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar as a "precautionary measure."
The Risk of Escalation
The risk of escalation is high, with Iran explicitly informing several countries that they would be targets of an Iranian missile attack if the U.S. were to strike. The U.S. embassies in Qatar and Saudi Arabia have told Americans to avoid going to military bases in those two countries, citing the potential for Iranian retaliation. According to a Gulf official, "Collectively, there’s an agreement that once this spirals into an armed military escalation, there could be lots of consequences." The official added that "tensions have cooled temporarily, but we’ve still yet to see. The next period will also be crucial."
The U.S. Response
The White House has been tight-lipped about the situation, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt telling reporters that many stories on Iran "have been based on anonymous sources who are pretending or guessing to know the president’s thinking." Leavitt said that President Trump "continues to closely monitor" the situation in Iran and will "keep all his options on the table." The president has been briefed on a range of options that can be used against Iran, including conventional airstrikes as well as cyber and psychological operations aimed at disrupting the country’s communications and state media.
The Iranian Perspective
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned President Trump against military strikes, urging U.S. officials to "halt their deceitful actions" earlier this week. Iran temporarily closed its airspace overnight on Wednesday, indicating it may have been preparing for possible military action. However, on Wednesday, President Trump suggested that a military strike on Iran may not be imminent, telling reporters he’d heard the "killing in Iran is stopping." Asked if that means military options are off the table, Mr. Trump said: "We’re going to watch and see what the process is."
The Diplomatic Campaign
The diplomatic campaign comes seven months after President Trump ordered airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, amid a days-long conflict between Iran and Israel. The current efforts are aimed at preventing attacks or further escalation, with the goal of creating space for eventual discussions on a nuclear deal and other issues. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke on the phone with Qatar’s prime minister and Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister on Thursday, the latter two countries announced on X. The diplomatic efforts are a crucial step towards preventing a military conflict and creating a path towards a peaceful resolution.
