Key Takeaways
- Canada’s population decreased by approximately 76,000 from July to October, primarily due to a reduction in non-permanent residents.
- The number of non-permanent residents dropped by 176,479, the largest decrease since comparable records began.
- The decline in population is largely attributed to changes in immigration policy, including tightened study permit eligibility and limited work permit eligibility for spouses of some master’s students and foreign workers.
- This marks the first recorded quarterly drop in Canada’s population since the pandemic began.
Introduction to Canada’s Population Decline
Canada’s population has experienced a significant decline, with a decrease of approximately 76,000 from July to October, according to federal estimates. This decrease is largely attributed to changes in immigration policy, which have led to a sharp reduction in non-permanent residents. Statistics Canada published its preliminary Q3 report, estimating Canada’s population to be 41,575,585 as of October 1. The main factor contributing to this decline is the drop in non-permanent residents, whose numbers decreased by 176,479, the largest drop since comparable records began.
Impact of Immigration Policy on Non-Permanent Residents
The decline in non-permanent residents is a result of changes in immigration policy, including tightened study permit eligibility and limited work permit eligibility for spouses of some master’s students and foreign workers. In September 2024, then-immigration minister Marc Miller announced that the government would limit the number of available study permits and restrict work permit eligibility for certain individuals. This has led to a significant decrease in the number of temporary permits issued, with only 163,026 permits issued during the period, compared to a record-high 339,505 temporary permits that expired. As a result, the number of non-permanent residents in Canada has decreased to approximately 2.8 million, accounting for 6.8% of the total population, down from around 3 million, or 7.3%, on July 1, 2025.
Historical Context of Canada’s Population Growth
Canada’s population has been steadily rising since the fourth quarter of 2020, when the population stood at 38,027,406. This marks the first recorded quarterly drop in Canada’s population since the pandemic began. The population has been increasing due to various factors, including immigration and natural population growth. However, the recent decline in non-permanent residents has contributed to the overall decrease in population. It is essential to consider the historical context of Canada’s population growth to understand the significance of this decline and its potential implications for the country’s economy and society.
Expert Insights and Analysis
Veronica Clark, U.S. and Canadian economist at Citi Research, has joined BNN Bloomberg to discuss StatCan’s report on November CPI data and provide insights into the implications of Canada’s population decline. Clark’s expertise in economics and her knowledge of the Canadian market provide valuable context for understanding the potential effects of this decline on the country’s economy. The decline in population, particularly in non-permanent residents, may have significant implications for various sectors, including education, employment, and housing. It is crucial to consider the potential consequences of this decline and develop strategies to address the underlying factors contributing to it.
Conclusion and Future Implications
In conclusion, Canada’s population decline is a significant event that warrants attention and analysis. The decline in non-permanent residents, primarily due to changes in immigration policy, has contributed to the overall decrease in population. It is essential to consider the historical context of Canada’s population growth and the potential implications of this decline on the country’s economy and society. As the situation continues to evolve, it is crucial to monitor the developments and adjust policies accordingly to address the underlying factors contributing to the decline. The insights provided by experts, such as Veronica Clark, will be invaluable in understanding the complexities of this issue and developing effective strategies to address its implications.
